What if interest rates go to 13%?

[TheBreeze]

According to bankrate.com, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is up 38 basis points this week to 6.35%. The interest rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo is up 24 basis points to 7.62%.

Although we are currently in a deflationary environment, Jimmy Rogers says that he is expecting hyperinflation due to the government’s printing of $10 trillion for the bailout. If we get hyperinflation, then interest rates will have to go up to combat it.

I wasn’t alive back then, but I’ve read that Volcker took interest rates to 13% back in the early 80’s in order to combat hyperinflation. That would be a little less than a doubling of the interest rate from here. What would happen to housing if that happened? Could prices get cut in half even from these levels?

We don’t have to have a Depression for things to get really bad. Back in the early 80’s unemployment went up to around 11%. With 11% unemployment and mortgage rates around 13%, we could finally see all the housing bulls demoralized. Rising interest rates and rising unemployment may be what puts the final nail in housing’s coffin.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the interest rate would have an effect, but someone way back posted a chart that had the ratio of interest rates and housing prices and if I remember right, housing prices were high the same time interest rates were.

That said, I think it’s different now b/c one of the reasons housing went up was the introductory low interest rates. What was it, like at one time I think I saw 3 or 4%?

Anyway, that allowed people to get double the house they ordinarily would’ve gotten and helped spur the increase in home prices. JMO. It stands to reason if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

The income ratio is a factor also.

[peterb]

Rates need to rise just to reflect risk…lots of defaults lately. Money is actually very cheap right now if you’re a bank. And will probably stay cheap for the banks for quite a while. But the banks just dont trust people anymore, or eachother either.
With homes prices falling, the risk is even greater for the banks. So rates may rise for quite a while on risk alone. Deflation is just starting to crank up. Look for home prices to continue their march down hill.
Oh, forgot to mention unemployment in CA at 7.7% and rising. Also means death to CA RE prices. Looks like a perfect storm brewing. And if you want to really see what’s going to devistate home prices in 2009, check out Mr Mortgage’s website and see his analisys of the next wave of foreclosures coming.

Jim Rogers is proabably correct in the long run, but right now the US$ is gaining and commodities are falling. How long this continues, who knows. But I bet this has another year left in it.

[peterb]

Rates need to rise just to reflect risk…lots of defaults lately. Money is actually very cheap right now if you’re a bank. And will probably stay cheap for the banks for quite a while. But the banks just dont trust people anymore, or eachother either.
With homes prices falling, the risk is even greater for the banks. So rates may rise for quite a while on risk alone. Deflation is just starting to crank up. Look for home prices to continue their march down hill.
Oh, forgot to mention unemployment in CA at 7.7% and rising. Also means death to CA RE prices. Looks like a perfect storm brewing. And if you want to really see what’s going to devistate home prices in 2009, check out Mr Mortgage’s website and see his analisys of the next wave of foreclosures coming.

Jim Rogers is proabably correct in the long run, but right now the US$ is gaining and commodities are falling. How long this continues, who knows. But I bet this has another year left in it.

[peterb]

Rates need to rise just to reflect risk…lots of defaults lately. Money is actually very cheap right now if you’re a bank. And will probably stay cheap for the banks for quite a while. But the banks just dont trust people anymore, or eachother either.
With homes prices falling, the risk is even greater for the banks. So rates may rise for quite a while on risk alone. Deflation is just starting to crank up. Look for home prices to continue their march down hill.
Oh, forgot to mention unemployment in CA at 7.7% and rising. Also means death to CA RE prices. Looks like a perfect storm brewing. And if you want to really see what’s going to devistate home prices in 2009, check out Mr Mortgage’s website and see his analisys of the next wave of foreclosures coming.

Jim Rogers is proabably correct in the long run, but right now the US$ is gaining and commodities are falling. How long this continues, who knows. But I bet this has another year left in it.

[peterb]

Rates need to rise just to reflect risk…lots of defaults lately. Money is actually very cheap right now if you’re a bank. And will probably stay cheap for the banks for quite a while. But the banks just dont trust people anymore, or eachother either.
With homes prices falling, the risk is even greater for the banks. So rates may rise for quite a while on risk alone. Deflation is just starting to crank up. Look for home prices to continue their march down hill.
Oh, forgot to mention unemployment in CA at 7.7% and rising. Also means death to CA RE prices. Looks like a perfect storm brewing. And if you want to really see what’s going to devistate home prices in 2009, check out Mr Mortgage’s website and see his analisys of the next wave of foreclosures coming.

Jim Rogers is proabably correct in the long run, but right now the US$ is gaining and commodities are falling. How long this continues, who knows. But I bet this has another year left in it.

[Author]

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