Wells will dump soon

[CA renter]

[quote=DWCAP]A) I dont think most people are looking for ANTHER 40% off. Atleast I have not heard it from anyone who is a regular poster (or anyone else for that matter, but I sometimes miss threads). Usually when I hear 40% off stuff, it is in relation to peak prices. So, a house that was 750k ‘should’ be 450k but is still at 550k. (this is what I hear the argument as).
As I understand it, your saying that the argument is the house which is now 550k ‘should’ be 330k, and I have just never seen anyone outside of Zerohedge make such claims.
Please feel free to prove me wrong on this, I only get spotty time on Piggington.

B) Housing prices have been trending up until very reciently, due mostly to tax credits and ‘REO/modification’ shortages of inventory. The loss of these gains is not ‘cutting into real equity’. Unless you live in RSF, in which case I have no sympthay for you, your neighboorhood likley has a 10-20% equity cushion that is due purely to governement intervention and is not ‘real’.

C) Would people really riot because of their house not being worth what they want it to be? Really? I mean they wont be happy, but they would riot over it?
Now, they would riot over another depression style loss of jobs (read jan 09 X12) but that came from the implosion of too much debt (only some of which was housing debt), not falling house prices. I just dont see it.

Rather, I think what we would see is a further rise in fringe canadates, and the resulting chaos in congress. Canadates who would make Sarah Palin look moderate, and the story would be different on the left.[/quote]

DWCAP,

Thank you for this perfectly sane post. People didn’t riot when their stocks imploded in 2000-2003, they didn’t riot when housing prices dropped 50-70% in some areas (the lower-end areas that were allowed to drop to normal levels before all the govt intervention).

People might riot if the govt doesn’t provide jobs/assistance while we allow the unwinding of debt/asset prices to take place. This is why I think there IS room for govt spending, but it should not be directed at elevating asset prices that were driven by a credit bubble.

The trillions spent these past few years have been a total waste, and the primary beneficiaries were those in the financial industry, while J6 was being hung out to dry (forced into staying deeply in debt to the capitalists/financiers via ridiculous promises of loan mods and principal reductions — which was only designed to buy time so the risks could be transferred from the private sector to the taxpayers).

These threats of riots are used to control the masses — to convince them that giving money to Wall Street is for their own good.

[CA renter]

[quote=permabear][quote=desmond]Riots? Who, why and where will these riots take place?[/quote]

Using history as a guide:

http://www.unbossed.com/index.php?itemid=2680

[quote]It was the morning of January 22, 1932, in a quiet, middle-class neighborhood of the Bronx. A crowd was gathering in front of 2302 Olinville Avenue, near the Bronx Park.

City Marshals and Police had moved in to evict 17 tenants who were on a “rent strike”. A crowd of 4,000 had gathered nearby.

When the marshals moved into the building and the first stick of furniture appeared on the street, the crowd charged the police and began pummeling them with fists, stones, and sticks, while the “non-combatants urged the belligerents to greater fury with anathemas for capitalism, the police and landlords.” The outnumbered police barely held their lines until reinforcements arrived.

Every single reserve police officer in the Bronx had to be called in to prevent being routed by the rioters.[/quote]

History is why the government and banks are not kicking people out aggressively.[/quote]

permabear,

These riots were a result of joblessness and the perception (correct, in my mind) that capitalists had destroyed the economy in the U.S.

This was the background story behind the Cold War, IMHO. The capitalists in the U.S. and parts of Europe were afraid of socialism/communism’s growing popularity. FDR’s New Deal was in response to this threat against the capitalists/financiers. It managed to quell the socialists and communists for a long time.

What is more likely to cause riots is the possible elimination/reduction of our social safety nets.

Now, if you can find a single instance where **falling asset prices** (and falling asset prices, alone…and especially falling asset prices that primarily affect wealthier people) have caused riots, it would bolster the argument that house price declines would cause riots. I’m unaware of any such cases in history, but am willing to keep an open mind.

[CA renter]

[quote=permabear][quote=desmond]Riots? Who, why and where will these riots take place?[/quote]

Using history as a guide:

http://www.unbossed.com/index.php?itemid=2680

[quote]It was the morning of January 22, 1932, in a quiet, middle-class neighborhood of the Bronx. A crowd was gathering in front of 2302 Olinville Avenue, near the Bronx Park.

City Marshals and Police had moved in to evict 17 tenants who were on a “rent strike”. A crowd of 4,000 had gathered nearby.

When the marshals moved into the building and the first stick of furniture appeared on the street, the crowd charged the police and began pummeling them with fists, stones, and sticks, while the “non-combatants urged the belligerents to greater fury with anathemas for capitalism, the police and landlords.” The outnumbered police barely held their lines until reinforcements arrived.

Every single reserve police officer in the Bronx had to be called in to prevent being routed by the rioters.[/quote]

History is why the government and banks are not kicking people out aggressively.[/quote]

permabear,

These riots were a result of joblessness and the perception (correct, in my mind) that capitalists had destroyed the economy in the U.S.

This was the background story behind the Cold War, IMHO. The capitalists in the U.S. and parts of Europe were afraid of socialism/communism’s growing popularity. FDR’s New Deal was in response to this threat against the capitalists/financiers. It managed to quell the socialists and communists for a long time.

What is more likely to cause riots is the possible elimination/reduction of our social safety nets.

Now, if you can find a single instance where **falling asset prices** (and falling asset prices, alone…and especially falling asset prices that primarily affect wealthier people) have caused riots, it would bolster the argument that house price declines would cause riots. I’m unaware of any such cases in history, but am willing to keep an open mind.

[CA renter]

[quote=permabear][quote=desmond]Riots? Who, why and where will these riots take place?[/quote]

Using history as a guide:

http://www.unbossed.com/index.php?itemid=2680

[quote]It was the morning of January 22, 1932, in a quiet, middle-class neighborhood of the Bronx. A crowd was gathering in front of 2302 Olinville Avenue, near the Bronx Park.

City Marshals and Police had moved in to evict 17 tenants who were on a “rent strike”. A crowd of 4,000 had gathered nearby.

When the marshals moved into the building and the first stick of furniture appeared on the street, the crowd charged the police and began pummeling them with fists, stones, and sticks, while the “non-combatants urged the belligerents to greater fury with anathemas for capitalism, the police and landlords.” The outnumbered police barely held their lines until reinforcements arrived.

Every single reserve police officer in the Bronx had to be called in to prevent being routed by the rioters.[/quote]

History is why the government and banks are not kicking people out aggressively.[/quote]

permabear,

These riots were a result of joblessness and the perception (correct, in my mind) that capitalists had destroyed the economy in the U.S.

This was the background story behind the Cold War, IMHO. The capitalists in the U.S. and parts of Europe were afraid of socialism/communism’s growing popularity. FDR’s New Deal was in response to this threat against the capitalists/financiers. It managed to quell the socialists and communists for a long time.

What is more likely to cause riots is the possible elimination/reduction of our social safety nets.

Now, if you can find a single instance where **falling asset prices** (and falling asset prices, alone…and especially falling asset prices that primarily affect wealthier people) have caused riots, it would bolster the argument that house price declines would cause riots. I’m unaware of any such cases in history, but am willing to keep an open mind.

[CA renter]

[quote=permabear][quote=desmond]Riots? Who, why and where will these riots take place?[/quote]

Using history as a guide:

http://www.unbossed.com/index.php?itemid=2680

[quote]It was the morning of January 22, 1932, in a quiet, middle-class neighborhood of the Bronx. A crowd was gathering in front of 2302 Olinville Avenue, near the Bronx Park.

City Marshals and Police had moved in to evict 17 tenants who were on a “rent strike”. A crowd of 4,000 had gathered nearby.

When the marshals moved into the building and the first stick of furniture appeared on the street, the crowd charged the police and began pummeling them with fists, stones, and sticks, while the “non-combatants urged the belligerents to greater fury with anathemas for capitalism, the police and landlords.” The outnumbered police barely held their lines until reinforcements arrived.

Every single reserve police officer in the Bronx had to be called in to prevent being routed by the rioters.[/quote]

History is why the government and banks are not kicking people out aggressively.[/quote]

permabear,

These riots were a result of joblessness and the perception (correct, in my mind) that capitalists had destroyed the economy in the U.S.

This was the background story behind the Cold War, IMHO. The capitalists in the U.S. and parts of Europe were afraid of socialism/communism’s growing popularity. FDR’s New Deal was in response to this threat against the capitalists/financiers. It managed to quell the socialists and communists for a long time.

What is more likely to cause riots is the possible elimination/reduction of our social safety nets.

Now, if you can find a single instance where **falling asset prices** (and falling asset prices, alone…and especially falling asset prices that primarily affect wealthier people) have caused riots, it would bolster the argument that house price declines would cause riots. I’m unaware of any such cases in history, but am willing to keep an open mind.

[CA renter]

[quote=permabear][quote=desmond]Riots? Who, why and where will these riots take place?[/quote]

Using history as a guide:

http://www.unbossed.com/index.php?itemid=2680

[quote]It was the morning of January 22, 1932, in a quiet, middle-class neighborhood of the Bronx. A crowd was gathering in front of 2302 Olinville Avenue, near the Bronx Park.

City Marshals and Police had moved in to evict 17 tenants who were on a “rent strike”. A crowd of 4,000 had gathered nearby.

When the marshals moved into the building and the first stick of furniture appeared on the street, the crowd charged the police and began pummeling them with fists, stones, and sticks, while the “non-combatants urged the belligerents to greater fury with anathemas for capitalism, the police and landlords.” The outnumbered police barely held their lines until reinforcements arrived.

Every single reserve police officer in the Bronx had to be called in to prevent being routed by the rioters.[/quote]

History is why the government and banks are not kicking people out aggressively.[/quote]

permabear,

These riots were a result of joblessness and the perception (correct, in my mind) that capitalists had destroyed the economy in the U.S.

This was the background story behind the Cold War, IMHO. The capitalists in the U.S. and parts of Europe were afraid of socialism/communism’s growing popularity. FDR’s New Deal was in response to this threat against the capitalists/financiers. It managed to quell the socialists and communists for a long time.

What is more likely to cause riots is the possible elimination/reduction of our social safety nets.

Now, if you can find a single instance where **falling asset prices** (and falling asset prices, alone…and especially falling asset prices that primarily affect wealthier people) have caused riots, it would bolster the argument that house price declines would cause riots. I’m unaware of any such cases in history, but am willing to keep an open mind.

[Ren]

[quote=permabear]I know lots of people on this forum are waiting for houses to drop another 30-40% so they can get them at rock-bottom prices.[/quote]

Find a single post on this forum in the past year from someone who expects another 30-40% downside. I don’t think you can.

I’m in the bear camp, and like several others here, I’m guesstimating another 20% down on the coast at the outside, and it could take several years for that, assuming no more intervention.

[Ren]

[quote=permabear]I know lots of people on this forum are waiting for houses to drop another 30-40% so they can get them at rock-bottom prices.[/quote]

Find a single post on this forum in the past year from someone who expects another 30-40% downside. I don’t think you can.

I’m in the bear camp, and like several others here, I’m guesstimating another 20% down on the coast at the outside, and it could take several years for that, assuming no more intervention.

[Ren]

[quote=permabear]I know lots of people on this forum are waiting for houses to drop another 30-40% so they can get them at rock-bottom prices.[/quote]

Find a single post on this forum in the past year from someone who expects another 30-40% downside. I don’t think you can.

I’m in the bear camp, and like several others here, I’m guesstimating another 20% down on the coast at the outside, and it could take several years for that, assuming no more intervention.

[Ren]

[quote=permabear]I know lots of people on this forum are waiting for houses to drop another 30-40% so they can get them at rock-bottom prices.[/quote]

Find a single post on this forum in the past year from someone who expects another 30-40% downside. I don’t think you can.

I’m in the bear camp, and like several others here, I’m guesstimating another 20% down on the coast at the outside, and it could take several years for that, assuming no more intervention.

[Ren]

[quote=permabear]I know lots of people on this forum are waiting for houses to drop another 30-40% so they can get them at rock-bottom prices.[/quote]

Find a single post on this forum in the past year from someone who expects another 30-40% downside. I don’t think you can.

I’m in the bear camp, and like several others here, I’m guesstimating another 20% down on the coast at the outside, and it could take several years for that, assuming no more intervention.

[scaredyclassic]

i believe there is a 25% chance of another 30% dip.

[scaredyclassic]

i believe there is a 25% chance of another 30% dip.

[scaredyclassic]

i believe there is a 25% chance of another 30% dip.

[scaredyclassic]

i believe there is a 25% chance of another 30% dip.

[Author]

Posts