Weekly Inventory Report discussion board

[CA renter]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=CA renter]Being a potential buyer right now must be extremely frustrating and maddening.[/quote]

That’s right. I am only kidding in the other thread that after flu bought now we can see price drop. I cannot imagine how we will ever see price drop in this market…because I am a potential buyer right now, I feel the market first hand. I made bids on 4 houses in the last 3 months at the listing price. Each time, I am either being outbid or beaten by a cash buyer. Good houses go pending within 4-5 days, sometimes within one day. You have to have a right strategy to win a house, and apparently I don’t.[/quote]

Patience, carlsbadworker. I think the current interest rate environment (artificially suppressed interest rates, telegraphed over an extended time) has convinced both regular buyers and investors to pile into real estate with everything they’ve got.

IMHO, if/when interest rates rise, the 5-7% rates on rentals will no longer entice the investors who are flocking to anything with a yield. It will also make it more expensive for regular buyers to buy with a mortgage.

It’s horrible to have to wait for so long, as most of the weak hands could have been washed out by now if not for all the interventions. Unfortunately, the Fed/govt either doesn’t know what they’re doing, or they are hell-bent on destroying the entire economy for regular “working” folk. Not sure which it is, but they are really doing their darndest to make the pain as great as possible, and to spread it out until absolutely everyone is affected, as opposed to primarily affecting those who were most responsible for the housing/creidit bubble.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=CA renter] Patience, carlsbadworker.[/quote]

Thanks. Like flu, I am only looking for an upgrade, so that’s OK.

[ocrenter]

seem like the inventory reduction and the increased pending are proportional. meanwhile the contingents are just stuck there without much movement.

so sdr, SDR, any theories about the lack of inventory?

[Coronita]

[quote=CA renter][quote=carlsbadworker][quote=CA renter]Being a potential buyer right now must be extremely frustrating and maddening.[/quote]

That’s right. I am only kidding in the other thread that after flu bought now we can see price drop. I cannot imagine how we will ever see price drop in this market…because I am a potential buyer right now, I feel the market first hand. I made bids on 4 houses in the last 3 months at the listing price. Each time, I am either being outbid or beaten by a cash buyer. Good houses go pending within 4-5 days, sometimes within one day. You have to have a right strategy to win a house, and apparently I don’t.[/quote]

Patience, carlsbadworker. I think the current interest rate environment (artificially suppressed interest rates, telegraphed over an extended time) has convinced both regular buyers and investors to pile into real estate with everything they’ve got.

IMHO, if/when interest rates rise, the 5-7% rates on rentals will no longer entice the investors who are flocking to anything with a yield. It will also make it more expensive for regular buyers to buy with a mortgage.

It’s horrible to have to wait for so long, as most of the weak hands could have been washed out by now if not for all the interventions. Unfortunately, the Fed/govt either doesn’t know what they’re doing, or they are hell-bent on destroying the entire economy for regular “working” folk. Not sure which it is, but they are really doing their darndest to make the pain as great as possible, and to spread it out until absolutely everyone is affected, as opposed to primarily affecting those who were most responsible for the housing/creidit bubble.[/quote]

The question is how long will the artificial rate suppression will last?
I mean even if it trickles .25%-.50%, rates are still ridiculously low… (unless you’re anal like me that argues over .25%)…Bond yields seems to be getting killed… Not sure really, because if the economy does/when get better, you do have folks needing housing. I wonder how many of them are primed to buy.

[scaredyclassic]

I subscribe to http://www.dailyreckoning.com a strangely humorous financial website that really did predict golds rise over a decade ago and they said last year, but a house or two. I tend to believe them.

[sdrealtor]

Contingent is a fluid category. Some go back to active some actives go to contingent, some switch to pending and some come from pending.

I think the lack of inventory is a pretty clear sign we have worked our way through the majority of the distress. Still plenty of work to go and others will still enter distress but the eye of the hurricane has passed.

[CA renter]

[quote=flu][quote=CA renter][quote=carlsbadworker][quote=CA renter]Being a potential buyer right now must be extremely frustrating and maddening.[/quote]

That’s right. I am only kidding in the other thread that after flu bought now we can see price drop. I cannot imagine how we will ever see price drop in this market…because I am a potential buyer right now, I feel the market first hand. I made bids on 4 houses in the last 3 months at the listing price. Each time, I am either being outbid or beaten by a cash buyer. Good houses go pending within 4-5 days, sometimes within one day. You have to have a right strategy to win a house, and apparently I don’t.[/quote]

Patience, carlsbadworker. I think the current interest rate environment (artificially suppressed interest rates, telegraphed over an extended time) has convinced both regular buyers and investors to pile into real estate with everything they’ve got.

IMHO, if/when interest rates rise, the 5-7% rates on rentals will no longer entice the investors who are flocking to anything with a yield. It will also make it more expensive for regular buyers to buy with a mortgage.

It’s horrible to have to wait for so long, as most of the weak hands could have been washed out by now if not for all the interventions. Unfortunately, the Fed/govt either doesn’t know what they’re doing, or they are hell-bent on destroying the entire economy for regular “working” folk. Not sure which it is, but they are really doing their darndest to make the pain as great as possible, and to spread it out until absolutely everyone is affected, as opposed to primarily affecting those who were most responsible for the housing/creidit bubble.[/quote]

The question is how long will the artificial rate suppression will last?
I mean even if it trickles .25%-.50%, rates are still ridiculously low… (unless you’re anal like me that argues over .25%)…Bond yields seems to be getting killed… Not sure really, because if the economy does/when get better, you do have folks needing housing. I wonder how many of them are primed to buy.[/quote]

Yes, that is the trillion-dollar question. Whoever gets that one right will be wealthy, indeed! 🙂

[SD Realtor]

I suspect that the low rates will last at least through the election. Regardless of who gets elected, and I would definitely put my money on the current regime, rates should start to rise. Price inflation on food and other essentials has happened for awhile now. I think we need at least 100-200 bps before we see some effects.

Also lets not forget the steps that are being taken to keep distressed homeowners in their homes. I suspect this is not as negligible as we think.

[CA renter]

Agreed, SDR.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=flu][quote=CA renter][quote=carlsbadworker][quote=CA renter]Being a potential buyer right now must be extremely frustrating and maddening.[/quote]

That’s right. I am only kidding in the other thread that after flu bought now we can see price drop. I cannot imagine how we will ever see price drop in this market…because I am a potential buyer right now, I feel the market first hand. I made bids on 4 houses in the last 3 months at the listing price. Each time, I am either being outbid or beaten by a cash buyer. Good houses go pending within 4-5 days, sometimes within one day. You have to have a right strategy to win a house, and apparently I don’t.[/quote]

Patience, carlsbadworker. I think the current interest rate environment (artificially suppressed interest rates, telegraphed over an extended time) has convinced both regular buyers and investors to pile into real estate with everything they’ve got.

IMHO, if/when interest rates rise, the 5-7% rates on rentals will no longer entice the investors who are flocking to anything with a yield. It will also make it more expensive for regular buyers to buy with a mortgage.

It’s horrible to have to wait for so long, as most of the weak hands could have been washed out by now if not for all the interventions. Unfortunately, the Fed/govt either doesn’t know what they’re doing, or they are hell-bent on destroying the entire economy for regular “working” folk. Not sure which it is, but they are really doing their darndest to make the pain as great as possible, and to spread it out until absolutely everyone is affected, as opposed to primarily affecting those who were most responsible for the housing/creidit bubble.[/quote]

The question is how long will the artificial rate suppression will last?
I mean even if it trickles .25%-.50%, rates are still ridiculously low… (unless you’re anal like me that argues over .25%)…Bond yields seems to be getting killed… Not sure really, because if the economy does/when get better, you do have folks needing housing. I wonder how many of them are primed to buy.[/quote]

Yes, that is the trillion-dollar question. Whoever gets that one right will be wealthy, indeed! :)[/quote]

Knowing something and acting on it profitably are not even in the same universe.

[ocrenter]

To my untrained eyes, I do not see any significant change to the inventory at all. The spring bounce is flat so far.

[sdrealtor]

Mild interpretation moved per Desmond. I’ll take a mulligan as I tried to get the data up asap and did so late at night after a long travel day back from Seattle.

This week we seem to have stopped the inventory decline as a whole. In our 3 areas of review, we saw some small increases, declines and a flat result. Thats shouldnt be a surprise as home buyers typically shut down the 2nd week of April each year for obvious reasons.

Its too early to call it trend but given past history this a very important week or two ahead. IN a normal market, the strongest market traditionally arrives once Tax Day passes. Many people are told by tax advisors they cant afford their homes, they should stop renting/buy a home or they are making too much money/should consider a move up. Buyers and sellers with school age children kick it into high gear to facilitate a move while school is out. If the party is going to kick into high gear in either direction we should start to see it.

[Coronita]

time to get my taxes done.

[Coronita]

Look like 92130 inventory picked up a little here…

http://www.sdlookup.com/Real_Estate-Carmel_Valley-Homes_For_Sale-92130?srtcol=13

Nothing that is interesting to me, per se, but yesterday looks like 5-6 more listings in one day… It’s pretty sad when I get excited to see 5-6 more listings in a day 🙂

[sdrealtor]

Spring kick is alive and well. Inventory dropping. Just stopped by my old office which is one of the biggest in the county. Talking to the agents there has always been the best vibe on the current market in NCC. Everyone has lots of buyers but nothing to sell them. I spoke with an agent who put a property on the market in Encinitas a few days ago in the low $500’s. Not a distress sale, nice home but nothing fancy and priced around recent comps. Up to 11 offers and counting.

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