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UCGal.
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March 10, 2012 at 8:33 AM #19582March 10, 2012 at 8:39 AM #739682
sdrealtor
ParticipantOne request. Lets try not to turn this into a battle over interpretations and try to keep this one focused on the data. Maybe we can start a separate thread if folks want to dicuss it.
SD County
Active 7335
Cont 4359
Pending 4795Ratio of Actives to cont/pendings 0.80
NCC
Active 1717
Cont 584
Pending 809Ratio of Actives to cont/pendings 1.23
Both ratios are very low. In a more freely traded market ratios like that would put upward pressure on prices. We are in anything but a freely traded market at the moment.
March 10, 2012 at 8:46 AM #739683desmond
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]One request. Lets try not to turn this into a battle over interpretations and try to keep this one focused on the data. Maybe we can start a separate thread if folks want to dicuss it.
Both ratios are very low. In a more freely traded market ratios like that would put upward pressure on prices. We are in anything but a freely traded market at the moment.[/quote]
Classic sdr,
March 10, 2012 at 9:14 AM #739684ParticipantJust setting the context that the data says one thing and the market conditions out there something different. I was trying to get the look how low inventory or look at dropping prices out of the way so we could focus on the direction things move going forward. Thats all.
March 10, 2012 at 9:19 AM #739685briansd1
Guest[quote=sdrealtor]Just setting the context that the data says one thing and the market conditions out there something different. Thats all.[/quote]
I agree. But what’s the fun if we can’t interpret the data?
BG might be right that shorts sales are driving down values. But on the other hand very low inventory are driving up prices. I think the net effect is somewhat positive.
March 10, 2012 at 9:19 AM #739686bearishgurl
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]…
SD County
Active 7335
Cont 4359
Pending 4795Ratio of Actives to cont/pendings 0.80
NCC
Active 1717
Cont 584
Pending 809Ratio of Actives to cont/pendings 1.23
…[/quote]
If I’m reading this right, “contingents” represent short-sale listings which are NOT in escrow yet.
In other words, there are actually 11,694 (active/”contingent”) listings on the market in SD County, with 2301 of those located in nirvana (NCC).
Out of the 11,694 “active/contingent” listings in the county, 62.7% of them are “traditional sales or REOs” and 37.3% of them are “SS listings.”
Out of the 2301 listings in nirvana, 74.6% of them are “traditional sales or REOs” and 25.4% of them are “SS listings.”
Do I have this info correct?
Is there a way to break out the “traditional sale/REO” percentage of current listings into which is which? In other words, for the county’s 62.7% overall, it could be 45% “traditional sales” and 17.7% “REO’s.”
I want to know what the “real” percentage of current “distressed” listings is.
March 10, 2012 at 1:14 PM #739699SD Realtor
ParticipantA contingent property means there is already an offer accepted by the seller.
It is not an active property.
March 10, 2012 at 1:54 PM #739701Participant[quote=SD Realtor]A contingent property means there is already an offer accepted by the seller.
It is not an active property.[/quote]
What’s the difference between “contingent” and “pending” then? My understanding was that “pendings” also had an offer accepted by the seller and were currently “in escrow.”
In a SS, “contingent” would obviously mean that since the “seller” accepted an offer (lol), it in no way means their lender(s) will accept it, which means the listing could still be “active,” that is, unless the affected lender(s) already approved the price and terms and earnest money has been deposited into escrow.
Therefore, it appears that a good portion of today’s “contingent” listings could still be “active” listings or have a great potential to become immediately “active” again, since no earnest money has been deposited with escrow.
I understand the data sdr has put out but it is misleading because one cannot determine the true percentage of actual “distressed” active listings from it. I’m not attributing any blame here. I’ve never subscribed to RE market data under the REALIST format and perhaps that’s how it’s laid out and sorted.
March 10, 2012 at 2:50 PM #739704Participantcontingent means that the seller has accepted the offer from a buyer.
pending means that the seller has accepted the offer from a buyer and that escrow has started.
Don’t confuse designations by the association. contingent means contingent. active means active. pending means pending. It is not that hard to figure out.
Any transaction could go back to active. A pending listing can go to active. A contingent listing can go back to active. A withdrawn listing can go back to active.
There is nothing at all misleading about the data he presented. The ratios he stated were absolutely correct. However he cannot look into the future and tell you exactly how many contingents and pendings will go back to active. Nor can he tell you how many actives that are active today will pull out of the market and not be active anymore.
Interpret the data however you want to interpret the data. Don’t try to say that there is a misleading element to what was presented. It does not matter what is distressed and what is not distressed.
What is active at the moment is active at the moment. Tomorrow there may be more actives and there may be less actives. Some of the contingents will go back to active, some of the pendings will go back to active and some of the current actives will go to a different state as well.
March 10, 2012 at 4:00 PM #739709ParticipantI understand all this. As I already stated twice on this thread, I’m interested in knowing, “What is the percentage of listings that are NOT currently in escrow that are ‘distressed?'”
Given the numbers that were presented the way they were, it is difficult to discern the answer to this question.
“contingent” seems to be a “sugar-coated” way of saying an offer on a SS has been “accepted” by a party who doesn’t have the authority to accept the offer and put the property into escrow (the underwater “trustor”). I’m not saying that’s anybody’s fault here. It could just be the way the data prints out when asked for.
In addition, I’m interested in the percentage of “active” listings that are actually REO’s, if it is possible to ask for and receive that data.
March 10, 2012 at 4:36 PM #739712Participanthttp://piggington.com/weekly_inventory_reporttake_2
LOL!
Obviously, the data cannot be culled in such a way as to determine the percentage of “distressed” current listings in SD County …. yes … or no?
This is the $64M question!
Or could it be that the answer to it turns out to be the “elephant in the room” that is being “purposely avoided.”
If so, should we all try to “guess” the reason for that?
How’s about another Pigg ask the same question on the “take2” thread! Feel free to “rephrase it,” lol.
March 10, 2012 at 4:48 PM #739714Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Just setting the context that the data says one thing and the market conditions out there something different. I was trying to get the look how low inventory or look at dropping prices out of the way so we could focus on the direction things move going forward. Thats all.[/quote]
Aaahh, but learning the cause of “low inventory” and “dropping prices” is material in determining the “direction things move going forward.” In other words, your data is useless without knowing why it came out the way it did.
March 12, 2012 at 2:50 PM #739763UCGal
Participantsdr –
Can you explain the rules to us. I see 3 threads and I’m not sure why the second 2 were started.Are we allowed to comment on the data (which seems to have happened).
Are we only allowed to agree with your conclusions?
Obviously, you decide when someone has broken the rules – but it’s hard to know what the rules are.
March 12, 2012 at 3:15 PM #739764ParticipantI dont want to be a rule maker but I’d like to keep it easy for people to follow the data and go back. Lets not call them rules. How about guidelines?
1.) Please just let the data sit on the take 3 and resist the urge to post. There is a discussion thread and I will bump it up right after I post new data.
2.) If anyone wants other areas added just send me a PM so we can keep the data on its own thread. I will add other areas but dont have time to cut the data any finer than that. It quickly devolves with too small sample sizes any way.
3.) Opinions dissenting or otherwise are always welcome and encouraged just not on the data thread. Thats what the discussion thread is for.
4.) Agreeing with my conclusions is appreciated but not necessary. -just kidding
Fair enough?
March 12, 2012 at 4:43 PM #739767ParticipantSo no posting responses to the data thread? Or am I missing something?
LOl on the answer to 4).
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