We are richer when house prices go down

[ltokuda]

“he said he purchased with cash, n = 100%”

Sorry for the confusion. I was actually talking about two things. I asked about how much of a downpayment felix made. He bought it in cash so his actual value of N is 100%.

The other thing I was trying to figure out was the theoretical minimum value of N (let’s call it “minN”) that he could have used and still generated a positive cash flow. If minN was 50%, then it probably wasn’t a good deal. If minN was 5%, then he probably got a great deal.

[drunkle]

i would (as posted by various posters here) look at the time value or opportunity value… if you’re cash neutral or positive with a rental, then using a downpayment allows you to make a profit on your opportunity… assuming you can find anything better to do with the money in this market…

[drunkle]

i would (as posted by various posters here) look at the time value or opportunity value… if you’re cash neutral or positive with a rental, then using a downpayment allows you to make a profit on your opportunity… assuming you can find anything better to do with the money in this market…

[drunkle]

i would (as posted by various posters here) look at the time value or opportunity value… if you’re cash neutral or positive with a rental, then using a downpayment allows you to make a profit on your opportunity… assuming you can find anything better to do with the money in this market…

[drunkle]

i would (as posted by various posters here) look at the time value or opportunity value… if you’re cash neutral or positive with a rental, then using a downpayment allows you to make a profit on your opportunity… assuming you can find anything better to do with the money in this market…

[drunkle]

i would (as posted by various posters here) look at the time value or opportunity value… if you’re cash neutral or positive with a rental, then using a downpayment allows you to make a profit on your opportunity… assuming you can find anything better to do with the money in this market…

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[Author]

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