So I went to the UCLA-Anderson economic outlook today at the Grand Hyatt downtown. Here are the summary bullet points. If you want more info on what was discussed or the speakers let me know.
1. National Economy will not, most likely, slip into a recession. However we are in for slower times and they were sure to comment that it could get much worse much faster.
2. Global economy will definately slow down on a grand scale. It cannot continue at the clip is has been. However, he was quick to point out that even though we owe other countries more than they owe us, the scale/ratios are in common with many industrialized countries. Also, more importantly our balance of payments (our payments on our debt versus other countries payment on their debt to us) is virtually equal even though the principal is not (aka we return lower rates than the rest of the world).
3. National Housing Market will continue to get pummeled into the foreseeable future. Too much bad debt and people who can’t afford their house.
MOST INTERESTINGLY WAS THEIR DISCUSSION ON THE SAN DIEGO.
I will bore you all the gory details but the end comment was that housing values will continue to decrease for the NEXT TWO YEARS.
Finally some voice of reason. The speakers were an economist from UCLA, the chief global economist for Wachovia, and John Burns a real estate analyst. John was actually very bearish and overall realistic in his assumptions except his take that job growth in San Diego and Population growth is robust. Still he was bearish on housing.
FYI if anyone would like the slides from the presentation email me at mark AT yahoo DOT com.