UT: County housing market strengthening

[scaredyclassic]

sometimes i think as a conscientious objector i am just not going to buy. on principle.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]

West of I-5 yes but West of the 101 no. I think we would both agree that its highly unlikely you will find a 1 story with 2000+ Sf, 4+br and a 1/4 acre or larger all flat and usable lot west of the 101. Most of your beach area examples were west of the 101.[/quote]

True, and we are not focused on west of the 101. I wasn’t cherry-picking, just showing you that the trend of delusional sellers is all over the place around here.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Not suddenly different. The change has been happening slowly and consistently over the last dozen years. Places can change over time and this area certainly has. Talk to old timers and they can tell you. heck, werent you decrying the changes that have occurred in life around here?[/quote]

Those changes have been happening for decades. Is it a coincidence that prices around here rose **just the same** as every other “desirable” location across the country and around the world, and at exactly the same time that we just happened to have a credit bubble? I think the credit bubble is responsible for most of the price movement since 2001 (that year was likely the TOP of the “normal” RE cycle, IMHO).

[quote=sdrealtor]
I dont see the delusional sellers as the issue but rather that you are looking for something really special that rarely comes on the market. Properties like that are always contested. Thus they almost always sell at a premium to the current market. [/quote]

Yes, absolutely agree that we are looking for something that is rare and in high demand, and have said so on many occasions. We are willing to pay a premium for these properties **relative to other non-premium properties.** Still, that doesn’t diminish the fact that many sellers are truly delusional, and think that the credit bubble should only affect their home prices on the way up, and should somehow leave them unscathed on the way down. These are the people who think 2005/2006 prices are “normal.”

[quote=sdrealtor]
One very important thing you probably have not considered is that there is that alot of the demand for those places comes from long time successful residents who arent actively looking to move UNLESS somethng special comes along. I have a half dozen past clients who are very happy and have no plans on moving unless their dream home came available and then they would in a NY minute. And they have plenty of cash to do so.[/quote]

This does not affect net inventory. If they move to a new location, they are leaving an empty home behind. If they are successful locals, chances are their old home is pretty nice. This does not affect our situation as far as I can tell.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]

West of I-5 yes but West of the 101 no. I think we would both agree that its highly unlikely you will find a 1 story with 2000+ Sf, 4+br and a 1/4 acre or larger all flat and usable lot west of the 101. Most of your beach area examples were west of the 101.[/quote]

True, and we are not focused on west of the 101. I wasn’t cherry-picking, just showing you that the trend of delusional sellers is all over the place around here.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Not suddenly different. The change has been happening slowly and consistently over the last dozen years. Places can change over time and this area certainly has. Talk to old timers and they can tell you. heck, werent you decrying the changes that have occurred in life around here?[/quote]

Those changes have been happening for decades. Is it a coincidence that prices around here rose **just the same** as every other “desirable” location across the country and around the world, and at exactly the same time that we just happened to have a credit bubble? I think the credit bubble is responsible for most of the price movement since 2001 (that year was likely the TOP of the “normal” RE cycle, IMHO).

[quote=sdrealtor]
I dont see the delusional sellers as the issue but rather that you are looking for something really special that rarely comes on the market. Properties like that are always contested. Thus they almost always sell at a premium to the current market. [/quote]

Yes, absolutely agree that we are looking for something that is rare and in high demand, and have said so on many occasions. We are willing to pay a premium for these properties **relative to other non-premium properties.** Still, that doesn’t diminish the fact that many sellers are truly delusional, and think that the credit bubble should only affect their home prices on the way up, and should somehow leave them unscathed on the way down. These are the people who think 2005/2006 prices are “normal.”

[quote=sdrealtor]
One very important thing you probably have not considered is that there is that alot of the demand for those places comes from long time successful residents who arent actively looking to move UNLESS somethng special comes along. I have a half dozen past clients who are very happy and have no plans on moving unless their dream home came available and then they would in a NY minute. And they have plenty of cash to do so.[/quote]

This does not affect net inventory. If they move to a new location, they are leaving an empty home behind. If they are successful locals, chances are their old home is pretty nice. This does not affect our situation as far as I can tell.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]

West of I-5 yes but West of the 101 no. I think we would both agree that its highly unlikely you will find a 1 story with 2000+ Sf, 4+br and a 1/4 acre or larger all flat and usable lot west of the 101. Most of your beach area examples were west of the 101.[/quote]

True, and we are not focused on west of the 101. I wasn’t cherry-picking, just showing you that the trend of delusional sellers is all over the place around here.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Not suddenly different. The change has been happening slowly and consistently over the last dozen years. Places can change over time and this area certainly has. Talk to old timers and they can tell you. heck, werent you decrying the changes that have occurred in life around here?[/quote]

Those changes have been happening for decades. Is it a coincidence that prices around here rose **just the same** as every other “desirable” location across the country and around the world, and at exactly the same time that we just happened to have a credit bubble? I think the credit bubble is responsible for most of the price movement since 2001 (that year was likely the TOP of the “normal” RE cycle, IMHO).

[quote=sdrealtor]
I dont see the delusional sellers as the issue but rather that you are looking for something really special that rarely comes on the market. Properties like that are always contested. Thus they almost always sell at a premium to the current market. [/quote]

Yes, absolutely agree that we are looking for something that is rare and in high demand, and have said so on many occasions. We are willing to pay a premium for these properties **relative to other non-premium properties.** Still, that doesn’t diminish the fact that many sellers are truly delusional, and think that the credit bubble should only affect their home prices on the way up, and should somehow leave them unscathed on the way down. These are the people who think 2005/2006 prices are “normal.”

[quote=sdrealtor]
One very important thing you probably have not considered is that there is that alot of the demand for those places comes from long time successful residents who arent actively looking to move UNLESS somethng special comes along. I have a half dozen past clients who are very happy and have no plans on moving unless their dream home came available and then they would in a NY minute. And they have plenty of cash to do so.[/quote]

This does not affect net inventory. If they move to a new location, they are leaving an empty home behind. If they are successful locals, chances are their old home is pretty nice. This does not affect our situation as far as I can tell.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]

West of I-5 yes but West of the 101 no. I think we would both agree that its highly unlikely you will find a 1 story with 2000+ Sf, 4+br and a 1/4 acre or larger all flat and usable lot west of the 101. Most of your beach area examples were west of the 101.[/quote]

True, and we are not focused on west of the 101. I wasn’t cherry-picking, just showing you that the trend of delusional sellers is all over the place around here.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Not suddenly different. The change has been happening slowly and consistently over the last dozen years. Places can change over time and this area certainly has. Talk to old timers and they can tell you. heck, werent you decrying the changes that have occurred in life around here?[/quote]

Those changes have been happening for decades. Is it a coincidence that prices around here rose **just the same** as every other “desirable” location across the country and around the world, and at exactly the same time that we just happened to have a credit bubble? I think the credit bubble is responsible for most of the price movement since 2001 (that year was likely the TOP of the “normal” RE cycle, IMHO).

[quote=sdrealtor]
I dont see the delusional sellers as the issue but rather that you are looking for something really special that rarely comes on the market. Properties like that are always contested. Thus they almost always sell at a premium to the current market. [/quote]

Yes, absolutely agree that we are looking for something that is rare and in high demand, and have said so on many occasions. We are willing to pay a premium for these properties **relative to other non-premium properties.** Still, that doesn’t diminish the fact that many sellers are truly delusional, and think that the credit bubble should only affect their home prices on the way up, and should somehow leave them unscathed on the way down. These are the people who think 2005/2006 prices are “normal.”

[quote=sdrealtor]
One very important thing you probably have not considered is that there is that alot of the demand for those places comes from long time successful residents who arent actively looking to move UNLESS somethng special comes along. I have a half dozen past clients who are very happy and have no plans on moving unless their dream home came available and then they would in a NY minute. And they have plenty of cash to do so.[/quote]

This does not affect net inventory. If they move to a new location, they are leaving an empty home behind. If they are successful locals, chances are their old home is pretty nice. This does not affect our situation as far as I can tell.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]

West of I-5 yes but West of the 101 no. I think we would both agree that its highly unlikely you will find a 1 story with 2000+ Sf, 4+br and a 1/4 acre or larger all flat and usable lot west of the 101. Most of your beach area examples were west of the 101.[/quote]

True, and we are not focused on west of the 101. I wasn’t cherry-picking, just showing you that the trend of delusional sellers is all over the place around here.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Not suddenly different. The change has been happening slowly and consistently over the last dozen years. Places can change over time and this area certainly has. Talk to old timers and they can tell you. heck, werent you decrying the changes that have occurred in life around here?[/quote]

Those changes have been happening for decades. Is it a coincidence that prices around here rose **just the same** as every other “desirable” location across the country and around the world, and at exactly the same time that we just happened to have a credit bubble? I think the credit bubble is responsible for most of the price movement since 2001 (that year was likely the TOP of the “normal” RE cycle, IMHO).

[quote=sdrealtor]
I dont see the delusional sellers as the issue but rather that you are looking for something really special that rarely comes on the market. Properties like that are always contested. Thus they almost always sell at a premium to the current market. [/quote]

Yes, absolutely agree that we are looking for something that is rare and in high demand, and have said so on many occasions. We are willing to pay a premium for these properties **relative to other non-premium properties.** Still, that doesn’t diminish the fact that many sellers are truly delusional, and think that the credit bubble should only affect their home prices on the way up, and should somehow leave them unscathed on the way down. These are the people who think 2005/2006 prices are “normal.”

[quote=sdrealtor]
One very important thing you probably have not considered is that there is that alot of the demand for those places comes from long time successful residents who arent actively looking to move UNLESS somethng special comes along. I have a half dozen past clients who are very happy and have no plans on moving unless their dream home came available and then they would in a NY minute. And they have plenty of cash to do so.[/quote]

This does not affect net inventory. If they move to a new location, they are leaving an empty home behind. If they are successful locals, chances are their old home is pretty nice. This does not affect our situation as far as I can tell.

[CA renter]

[quote=AN]jpinpb, I bet we’d still have a bubble if rate stay high but and have subprime, negam, etc. loan programs.[/quote]

It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending. When investors are not able to earn forecasted returns over many years, they have to reach for yield by moving out on the risk curve (think: pension funds). They were able to earn higher returns with the riskier debt…at least for a little while.

[CA renter]

[quote=AN]jpinpb, I bet we’d still have a bubble if rate stay high but and have subprime, negam, etc. loan programs.[/quote]

It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending. When investors are not able to earn forecasted returns over many years, they have to reach for yield by moving out on the risk curve (think: pension funds). They were able to earn higher returns with the riskier debt…at least for a little while.

[CA renter]

[quote=AN]jpinpb, I bet we’d still have a bubble if rate stay high but and have subprime, negam, etc. loan programs.[/quote]

It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending. When investors are not able to earn forecasted returns over many years, they have to reach for yield by moving out on the risk curve (think: pension funds). They were able to earn higher returns with the riskier debt…at least for a little while.

[CA renter]

[quote=AN]jpinpb, I bet we’d still have a bubble if rate stay high but and have subprime, negam, etc. loan programs.[/quote]

It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending. When investors are not able to earn forecasted returns over many years, they have to reach for yield by moving out on the risk curve (think: pension funds). They were able to earn higher returns with the riskier debt…at least for a little while.

[CA renter]

[quote=AN]jpinpb, I bet we’d still have a bubble if rate stay high but and have subprime, negam, etc. loan programs.[/quote]

It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending. When investors are not able to earn forecasted returns over many years, they have to reach for yield by moving out on the risk curve (think: pension funds). They were able to earn higher returns with the riskier debt…at least for a little while.

[pemeliza]

“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”

That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.

[pemeliza]

“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”

That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.

[pemeliza]

“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”

That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.

[pemeliza]

“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”

That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.

[Author]

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