UT: County housing market strengthening

[an]

CAR, how about these?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100014822-2855_Rancho_Ganadero_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
04/13/2010 $660,000 9y 11m 34% 3%
05/04/2000 $490,900 n/a – –
—————————————————
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100009649-2192_Corte_Arboles_Carlsbad_CA_92009
04/09/2010 $790,000 10y 7m 89% 6%
08/23/1999 $418,135 n/a – –
—————————————————
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100005846-7930_Sitio_Granado_Carlsbad_CA_92009
04/06/2010 $740,000 10y 4m 73% 5%
11/12/1999 $427,285 n/a – –
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http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100014021-6225_Paseo_Alta_Rico_Carlsbad_CA_92009
04/06/2010 $980,000 7y 12m -15% -2%
04/11/2002 $1,150,000 2y 5m 51% 18%
10/27/1999 $760,273 n/a – –
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http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100001641-6817_Camino_De_Amigos_Carlsbad_CA_92009
04/05/2010 $565,000 9y 6m 77% 6%
09/11/2000 $319,871 n/a – –
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http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100001126-7867_Grado_Cipreso_Carlsbad_CA_92009
04/01/2010 $638,625 8y 3m 45% 5%
12/19/2001 $439,500 3y 1m 38% 11%
11/13/1998 $317,990 n/a – –
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http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090015161-7237_Almaden_Ln_Carlsbad_CA_92009
03/30/2010 $1,225,000 6y 10m -15% -2%
05/14/2003 $1,440,000 2y 9m 20% 7%
08/16/2000 $1,200,000 11m 100% 113%
09/17/1999 $600,000 n/a – –
—————————————————
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100007826-3103_Rancho_Del_Canon_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
03/30/2010 $452,000 4y 8m -23% -5%
07/21/2005 $585,000 5y 9m 134% 16%
09/28/1999 $249,594 n/a – –
—————————————————
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090060318-7961_Calle_Posada_Carlsbad_CA_92009
03/30/2010 $450,000 7y 8m 8% 1%
07/17/2002 $415,000 3y 40% 12%
07/09/1999 $297,000 9y 8m 19% 2%
10/12/1989 $250,000 4y 1m 86% 16%
09/11/1985 $134,708 n/a – –
—————————————————
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090059167-3203_Rancho_Quartillo_Carlsbad_CA_92009
03/25/2010 $540,000 8y 8m 29% 3%
07/10/2001 $418,000 1y 4m 25% 18%
02/22/2000 $333,798 n/a – –

[sdrealtor]

Thanx AN,
While those arent necessarily in CAR target areas they are certainly much closer than the vast majority of the examples she posted. Lastly, most of your examples were new homes in 1999 – 2001, so the the intial prices are actually undervalued because they dont include landscaping, appliances, paint, window treatments etc. You can add at least 10% to most of your examples as a more accurate starting point.

They are also actual CLOSED sales and very representative of the current market dynamics/pricing.

[sdrealtor]

Thanx AN,
While those arent necessarily in CAR target areas they are certainly much closer than the vast majority of the examples she posted. Lastly, most of your examples were new homes in 1999 – 2001, so the the intial prices are actually undervalued because they dont include landscaping, appliances, paint, window treatments etc. You can add at least 10% to most of your examples as a more accurate starting point.

They are also actual CLOSED sales and very representative of the current market dynamics/pricing.

[sdrealtor]

Thanx AN,
While those arent necessarily in CAR target areas they are certainly much closer than the vast majority of the examples she posted. Lastly, most of your examples were new homes in 1999 – 2001, so the the intial prices are actually undervalued because they dont include landscaping, appliances, paint, window treatments etc. You can add at least 10% to most of your examples as a more accurate starting point.

They are also actual CLOSED sales and very representative of the current market dynamics/pricing.

[sdrealtor]

Thanx AN,
While those arent necessarily in CAR target areas they are certainly much closer than the vast majority of the examples she posted. Lastly, most of your examples were new homes in 1999 – 2001, so the the intial prices are actually undervalued because they dont include landscaping, appliances, paint, window treatments etc. You can add at least 10% to most of your examples as a more accurate starting point.

They are also actual CLOSED sales and very representative of the current market dynamics/pricing.

[sdrealtor]

Thanx AN,
While those arent necessarily in CAR target areas they are certainly much closer than the vast majority of the examples she posted. Lastly, most of your examples were new homes in 1999 – 2001, so the the intial prices are actually undervalued because they dont include landscaping, appliances, paint, window treatments etc. You can add at least 10% to most of your examples as a more accurate starting point.

They are also actual CLOSED sales and very representative of the current market dynamics/pricing.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not going to claim anything about the prices being reasonable because that is irrlevant. Most of your examples are big stretches for the following reasons:

1. Beach properties are a different animal and we know you arent looking for one any way.

2. I see lots of 1997 and 1998 prices which history has told us were the bottom of the prior cycle and not a good starting point.

3. These are asking prices and not sold prices. I can ask $1M for my pencil and be delusional.

You claimed that sellers were asking for 200% appreciation over 2000/2001 prices (which I think we both would agree were reasonably fair). When I look at prices IN THE AREAS I KNOW YOU ARE CONSIDERING (not the examples you data mine to fit your hyperbolic statements which are homes you arent even considering), I see home prices up about 66% from 2000/2001 not anything close to up 200%. I also dont see delusional sellers asking for 200% more than 2000/2001 prices in these areas.

I’m not saying 66% appreciation is fair or reasonable since 2000/2001. However, it represents about 5% appreciation compounded over 10 years. Is there downside risk to current prices? No question about it.

Who cares that some nit wit is looking for $1.2M for a shack on 3rd St? Sellers in your target areas arent basing their expectations or pricing on that. I understand you are frustrated. We are all frustrated. But your fruistrations are leading to distorted views of the market.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not going to claim anything about the prices being reasonable because that is irrlevant. Most of your examples are big stretches for the following reasons:

1. Beach properties are a different animal and we know you arent looking for one any way.

2. I see lots of 1997 and 1998 prices which history has told us were the bottom of the prior cycle and not a good starting point.

3. These are asking prices and not sold prices. I can ask $1M for my pencil and be delusional.

You claimed that sellers were asking for 200% appreciation over 2000/2001 prices (which I think we both would agree were reasonably fair). When I look at prices IN THE AREAS I KNOW YOU ARE CONSIDERING (not the examples you data mine to fit your hyperbolic statements which are homes you arent even considering), I see home prices up about 66% from 2000/2001 not anything close to up 200%. I also dont see delusional sellers asking for 200% more than 2000/2001 prices in these areas.

I’m not saying 66% appreciation is fair or reasonable since 2000/2001. However, it represents about 5% appreciation compounded over 10 years. Is there downside risk to current prices? No question about it.

Who cares that some nit wit is looking for $1.2M for a shack on 3rd St? Sellers in your target areas arent basing their expectations or pricing on that. I understand you are frustrated. We are all frustrated. But your fruistrations are leading to distorted views of the market.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not going to claim anything about the prices being reasonable because that is irrlevant. Most of your examples are big stretches for the following reasons:

1. Beach properties are a different animal and we know you arent looking for one any way.

2. I see lots of 1997 and 1998 prices which history has told us were the bottom of the prior cycle and not a good starting point.

3. These are asking prices and not sold prices. I can ask $1M for my pencil and be delusional.

You claimed that sellers were asking for 200% appreciation over 2000/2001 prices (which I think we both would agree were reasonably fair). When I look at prices IN THE AREAS I KNOW YOU ARE CONSIDERING (not the examples you data mine to fit your hyperbolic statements which are homes you arent even considering), I see home prices up about 66% from 2000/2001 not anything close to up 200%. I also dont see delusional sellers asking for 200% more than 2000/2001 prices in these areas.

I’m not saying 66% appreciation is fair or reasonable since 2000/2001. However, it represents about 5% appreciation compounded over 10 years. Is there downside risk to current prices? No question about it.

Who cares that some nit wit is looking for $1.2M for a shack on 3rd St? Sellers in your target areas arent basing their expectations or pricing on that. I understand you are frustrated. We are all frustrated. But your fruistrations are leading to distorted views of the market.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not going to claim anything about the prices being reasonable because that is irrlevant. Most of your examples are big stretches for the following reasons:

1. Beach properties are a different animal and we know you arent looking for one any way.

2. I see lots of 1997 and 1998 prices which history has told us were the bottom of the prior cycle and not a good starting point.

3. These are asking prices and not sold prices. I can ask $1M for my pencil and be delusional.

You claimed that sellers were asking for 200% appreciation over 2000/2001 prices (which I think we both would agree were reasonably fair). When I look at prices IN THE AREAS I KNOW YOU ARE CONSIDERING (not the examples you data mine to fit your hyperbolic statements which are homes you arent even considering), I see home prices up about 66% from 2000/2001 not anything close to up 200%. I also dont see delusional sellers asking for 200% more than 2000/2001 prices in these areas.

I’m not saying 66% appreciation is fair or reasonable since 2000/2001. However, it represents about 5% appreciation compounded over 10 years. Is there downside risk to current prices? No question about it.

Who cares that some nit wit is looking for $1.2M for a shack on 3rd St? Sellers in your target areas arent basing their expectations or pricing on that. I understand you are frustrated. We are all frustrated. But your fruistrations are leading to distorted views of the market.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not going to claim anything about the prices being reasonable because that is irrlevant. Most of your examples are big stretches for the following reasons:

1. Beach properties are a different animal and we know you arent looking for one any way.

2. I see lots of 1997 and 1998 prices which history has told us were the bottom of the prior cycle and not a good starting point.

3. These are asking prices and not sold prices. I can ask $1M for my pencil and be delusional.

You claimed that sellers were asking for 200% appreciation over 2000/2001 prices (which I think we both would agree were reasonably fair). When I look at prices IN THE AREAS I KNOW YOU ARE CONSIDERING (not the examples you data mine to fit your hyperbolic statements which are homes you arent even considering), I see home prices up about 66% from 2000/2001 not anything close to up 200%. I also dont see delusional sellers asking for 200% more than 2000/2001 prices in these areas.

I’m not saying 66% appreciation is fair or reasonable since 2000/2001. However, it represents about 5% appreciation compounded over 10 years. Is there downside risk to current prices? No question about it.

Who cares that some nit wit is looking for $1.2M for a shack on 3rd St? Sellers in your target areas arent basing their expectations or pricing on that. I understand you are frustrated. We are all frustrated. But your fruistrations are leading to distorted views of the market.

[an]

sdr, I don’t have time to find houses/areas CAR is looking to buy, so I just go to the closed sales in 92009 on sdlookup and go down the list. Looking at closed sale will weed out all the wishful listing and low ball listings. I can list my house today at $100k. It doesn’t mean it’s worth $100k. I can conversely list my house at $800k, but it doesn’t mean it’s worth $800k either. Only after a sale is closed is when you know what its market value is. Unless CAR is trying to say that all of the listings in her targeted areas have delusional list prices.

[an]

sdr, I don’t have time to find houses/areas CAR is looking to buy, so I just go to the closed sales in 92009 on sdlookup and go down the list. Looking at closed sale will weed out all the wishful listing and low ball listings. I can list my house today at $100k. It doesn’t mean it’s worth $100k. I can conversely list my house at $800k, but it doesn’t mean it’s worth $800k either. Only after a sale is closed is when you know what its market value is. Unless CAR is trying to say that all of the listings in her targeted areas have delusional list prices.

[an]

sdr, I don’t have time to find houses/areas CAR is looking to buy, so I just go to the closed sales in 92009 on sdlookup and go down the list. Looking at closed sale will weed out all the wishful listing and low ball listings. I can list my house today at $100k. It doesn’t mean it’s worth $100k. I can conversely list my house at $800k, but it doesn’t mean it’s worth $800k either. Only after a sale is closed is when you know what its market value is. Unless CAR is trying to say that all of the listings in her targeted areas have delusional list prices.

[an]

sdr, I don’t have time to find houses/areas CAR is looking to buy, so I just go to the closed sales in 92009 on sdlookup and go down the list. Looking at closed sale will weed out all the wishful listing and low ball listings. I can list my house today at $100k. It doesn’t mean it’s worth $100k. I can conversely list my house at $800k, but it doesn’t mean it’s worth $800k either. Only after a sale is closed is when you know what its market value is. Unless CAR is trying to say that all of the listings in her targeted areas have delusional list prices.

[Author]

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