UCLA Anderson Forecast: How Wrong, How Much

[Bugs]

Off-topic: Once again I would suggest that now would be a good time to retreat to our respective corners and not come out unless we have something relevant to the topic of the thread. I don’t care if SDRealtor is a 14-year old computer hacker from the Ukraine – it is the material that’s important, not the individual.

On-Topic: The UCLA Anderson Forecast has a pretty good track record and because I think the past is relevant to the future I would not dismiss their views out of hand even if I do disagree with some of the things they say. I mostly agree with SDRealtor’s comments about emotion being one of the fundamentals in the RESIDENTIAL market, although I don’t think it applies in most of the non-res markets. Residential properties fulfil emotional needs as well as functional needs, so any buy-sell decision will involve a certain amount of emotion. I think market psychology fits into that category, too.

I’ve made the mistake in the past of expecting the residential markets to behave rationally and I’ve had the experience of having to eat crow for that mistake. I hope to learn from my mistakes so I’m trying hard to not make that one again, and I recommend everyone else do the same. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it’s solely about dollars and cents with most of these buyers because that would be giving them way too much credit. The herd instinct is alive and well in the markets and it would be wise to never lose sight of that.

[Anonymous]

You really dont understand this business PS. Personal websites are pretty useless. Video tours arent of much value either other than impressing easily impressed sellers. Personally I wouldnt use video tours. They eliminate the need to see the home in many cases. Great pictures whet peoples appetite to want to see more. A house can only be sold when someone walks in the door. I’ve yet to see a home sold over the Internet without the buyer ever seeing it. As for a web presence, I spend my money the only place I beleive it matters on Realtor.com. It drives alot of business my way.

Prior to being in real estate I was involved in the Internet during its heyday and know at least as much as any other realtor out there as to what works and what doesnt. i laugh when I see newbie realtors set up expensive websites that no one will ever find.

[PD]

I have a friend overseas who just bought a house. She has only seen it over the internet. I tried to talk her out of it but she is determined go through with the deal.

[sdrealtor]

Congratulations, there is one fool in the world I didnt know about.

[powayseller]

Early December, my realtor told me a client on the East coast was coming out to SD, had seen my house on the internet, and wanted to view it. We already had an offer in progress.

sdrealtor, I find it interesting that you dismiss this internet approach of selling homes. Did you not know that 80% of homes are sold over the internet? If the house is marketed well, the client will ask to see it. Your seller is competing with homes that have a video tour. You don’t think that matters? Why do you prefer to work without the internet? Do you think that flyers work better?

bugs – the UCLA group predicted the last recession. But they base their forecast on faulty assumptions. How can you predict the future of Southern CA housing, without taking ARMs, IO loans, 100% financing, stated income, foreclosures into account? How can you ignore that 88% of Fannie Mae’s quarter 1 2006 loans are for a higher interest rate than the one they are paying off?? Yes, you read that right. 88% of loans are for people taking cash out of their homes and willing to pay a higher interest rate to do so! Now what does that tell you about people’s financial situation?

I will make a new thread with some other poor assumptions, like the 5% max Fed rate and $50 max gas. Their model rests on $50 gas. So far, so bad…

[sdrealtor]

PS
I find it interesting that you don’t read my posts more carefully. I use the Internet very very effectively. Did you know that over 80% of the time buyers search for homes on the Internet they do so with realtor.com? That’s where I spend my money…where it actually works. My listings are marketed as effectively or more so than others. I have listings in neighborhoods that have been shown an average of once a day over the last 60 days. When I talk to other realtors with listings (most of which have video tours) and ask how often their listings are being shown, I am told once or twice a week. I know of several that havent been shown in weeks. The difference is how I do things. I only do things I know will work. Most realtors spend hundreds if not thouands of dollars on things they know wont work just to appease their sellers. I explain upfront that I wont do that and that every penny of my marketing budget will go toward getting their house sold. When they speak to their neighbors whose homes arent even being shown they understand why they hired me in the first place.

BTW, in the last two weeks I have had 3 out of state buyers come to SD to look at my listings and to work with me in finding a home. One will go into escrow this week.

Did that East Coast buyer actually purchase your house? Did that east coast buyer actually purchase a house from that Realtor?

PS, you live in the hypothetical world, I live in the real world. There is a difference.

[john67elco]

Tell those “buyers” to check out this site.

“You say housing market will keep rising? Then your stupid for not buying as many homes as you can right now!!!!!!!!!”

[powayseller]

I didn’t show my house to the East Coast buyer, because we were finalizing our contract, and had a signed offer by mid December. I didn’t follow up with my realtor to ask if he worked with that buyer. I found it interesting that the internet was the primary marketing tool, and that I’d attracted someone from the other side of the country, just with having some good photos.

My name is Schahrzad Berkland. What’s yours?

I am done with the anonymity thing.

I like Docteur’s style, and have thought a lot about his post of taking responsibility. This includes saying who I am, and not hiding behind a screen name. It feels so good to be free at last.

Why hide? What is there to protect?

[Bugs]

I probably didn’t communicate my previous post too well. I’m not saying I am buying everything they’re selling but I also won’t dismiss it all out of hand just because I disagree with some of the things they’re saying. I don’t need to agree with everything they say in order to take advantage of a point or two they bring up that makes some sense.

Let me explain it like this: When I start researching data for an assignment I often start developing my opinion of value for the property I’m appraising before I even see it. However, that opinion is subject to change right up until the moment I sign it as I send it out the door. Until that point, I am constantly in search of additional information from any credible source. While much of the additional information is worthless every once in a while something good pops out. I don’t want to get caught missing out on that just because it doesn’t jibe with my initial impressions.

[docteur]

Powayseller – What is there to protect? Some would say “Your good name.”

People like to be anonymous to protect their positions. If you really want to experience the true essence of a person, watch what they say or do (or don’t say or do) when they believe they can’t be held accountable for their actions (or non-actions).

This forum is particularly revealing of its participants characters because “Nothing is more revealing about a person than their anonymity”. Being invisible tells us volumes about the phantom in diguise.

Becaue when someone believes they are safe from reprisal (or even praise), when they believe they are essentially invisible, they will let their true selves out. They will act in ways and say and do things that they wouldn’t say or do under “normal” circumstances.

And knowing a person’s name, seeing a picture of them or even meeting them in the flesh, doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is no longer “anonymous”…they can still hide out.

For to truly reveal ones self, you need to take total responsibility for who you are, and that includes communicating responsibly by owning the response that you get, regardless of what you think you intended to say.

Then and only then will you lose your anonymity and those receiving your communications will come to truly know you and you will then be authentic in your interactions with others. Nothing will be hidden, all will be revealed.

“The meaning of the communication is the response that you get.” In other words, how another responds to what you have said (or not said), reveals your true intent in that particular communication.

Thanks for having the courage to reveal your name. I am glad that you feel free in doing that, yet until you are not, you will always be powayseller to me…and “saying who you are” is revealed far more to me in the words that you write and in the actions that you take, than in the name by which you are called.

By reading your posts, which are honest, straightforward and candid, I already “know who you are”… someone I am honored to be acquainted with and someone who deserves my respect for her willingness and courage to share herself by participating in this forum. You consistently reveal who you are everytime you post and I get that you care deeply about everyone on this forum.

By being willing to participate in this forum, all of us add value to these discussions and we all deserve to be treated with dignity and respect in our communications with one another. Who we are (individually and collectively) is clearly revealed in our responses to one another and more importantly, by the responses we receive from one another.

Remember: “Integrity is what you do when no one is looking.”

[lindismith]

Docteur, I like your posts too. Hopefully you’re coming to the meet-up in July!

I work in marketing for my family’s manufacturing biz. We have survived for many reasons, but one of them is because we have embraced technology (unlike other US mfrs.) Anyway, in my marketing role, I have to stay up on Search Engine Technology. I thought many of you might find the following link interesting:
http://searchenginewatch.com/searchday/article.php/3611756
It is clear the web is having a huge impact on RE.

I’m not convinced that individual real estate agents need a website, but they do need to understand and appreciate the impact the web is having on their business (and all related businesses.) At the very least, potential referrals will google a realtor’s name and a realtor without a website could present an image of a realtor who is not living in the 21st Century, and therefore not as knowledgeable. That’s just my marketing opinion of course.

[powayseller]

Here’s a great comment I got:

I can not believe that these people wre supposed to be economists. If
prices can’t fall unless there is a recession, why did they rise after
9/11 when the economy was in a recession. The rise and fall of house
prices is simple, supply and demand. Whatever the reason, and there are
many, when there is excess supply prices fall and when there is a
shortage prices rise.

[powayseller]

Here’s a great comment I got:

I can not believe that these people are supposed to be economists. If prices can’t fall unless there is a recession, why did they rise after 9/11 when the economy was in a recession.

The rise and fall of house prices is simple, supply and demand. Whatever the reason, and there are many, when there is excess supply, prices fall and when there is a shortage, prices rise.

[Author]

Posts