Home › Forums › Closed Forums › Buying and Selling RE › Timing the Bottom
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December 6, 2007 at 12:11 PM #110667December 6, 2007 at 12:11 PM #110669(former)FormerSanDieganParticipant
My favorite method for finding the bottom is to take an established (older) first-time home buyer neighborhood which tends to track the SD median and do rent versus own calculations.
Every couple months I do this for houses in Clairemont. Last time I did this was a couple weeks ago. I came up with plenty of examples of houses on the market that (after taxes) are about 300 bucks a month away from being equivalent (on a monthly basis) from renting, assuming 20% down. When this calculation reveals about the same margin with 5% down, that’s when I would be comfortable that the down-side risk is minimized.
December 6, 2007 at 12:17 PM #110509redtideParticipant[img_assist|nid=5704|title=troll graph|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
December 6, 2007 at 12:17 PM #110625redtideParticipant[img_assist|nid=5704|title=troll graph|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
December 6, 2007 at 12:17 PM #110655redtideParticipant[img_assist|nid=5704|title=troll graph|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
December 6, 2007 at 12:17 PM #110672redtideParticipant[img_assist|nid=5704|title=troll graph|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
December 6, 2007 at 12:17 PM #110674redtideParticipant[img_assist|nid=5704|title=troll graph|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
December 6, 2007 at 2:56 PM #110643SHILOHParticipantThe dollar has fallen (is falling), home prices are still beyond affordability…inventory is sitting–property taxes are high on false appraisals and there is a credit crunch since the “banks” and investors don’t want to get burned further.
The gov’ is trying to find a solution out to 2010.
It seems we are nowhere near the bottom, fundamentally. But it would seem like some of the economically smart people out there could estimate where the median price will be in 2011 or 2012 given the current government intervention.December 6, 2007 at 2:56 PM #110760SHILOHParticipantThe dollar has fallen (is falling), home prices are still beyond affordability…inventory is sitting–property taxes are high on false appraisals and there is a credit crunch since the “banks” and investors don’t want to get burned further.
The gov’ is trying to find a solution out to 2010.
It seems we are nowhere near the bottom, fundamentally. But it would seem like some of the economically smart people out there could estimate where the median price will be in 2011 or 2012 given the current government intervention.December 6, 2007 at 2:56 PM #110792SHILOHParticipantThe dollar has fallen (is falling), home prices are still beyond affordability…inventory is sitting–property taxes are high on false appraisals and there is a credit crunch since the “banks” and investors don’t want to get burned further.
The gov’ is trying to find a solution out to 2010.
It seems we are nowhere near the bottom, fundamentally. But it would seem like some of the economically smart people out there could estimate where the median price will be in 2011 or 2012 given the current government intervention.December 6, 2007 at 2:56 PM #110806SHILOHParticipantThe dollar has fallen (is falling), home prices are still beyond affordability…inventory is sitting–property taxes are high on false appraisals and there is a credit crunch since the “banks” and investors don’t want to get burned further.
The gov’ is trying to find a solution out to 2010.
It seems we are nowhere near the bottom, fundamentally. But it would seem like some of the economically smart people out there could estimate where the median price will be in 2011 or 2012 given the current government intervention.December 6, 2007 at 2:56 PM #110809SHILOHParticipantThe dollar has fallen (is falling), home prices are still beyond affordability…inventory is sitting–property taxes are high on false appraisals and there is a credit crunch since the “banks” and investors don’t want to get burned further.
The gov’ is trying to find a solution out to 2010.
It seems we are nowhere near the bottom, fundamentally. But it would seem like some of the economically smart people out there could estimate where the median price will be in 2011 or 2012 given the current government intervention.December 6, 2007 at 3:10 PM #110658sdduuuudeParticipantI was at “Fear” when the rest of the city was at “Thrill” which is why I was able to sell at Euphoria.
December 6, 2007 at 3:10 PM #110776sdduuuudeParticipantI was at “Fear” when the rest of the city was at “Thrill” which is why I was able to sell at Euphoria.
December 6, 2007 at 3:10 PM #110807sdduuuudeParticipantI was at “Fear” when the rest of the city was at “Thrill” which is why I was able to sell at Euphoria.
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