Timing the Bottom

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top
In nominal price terms I might actually agree. But that does not mean it’s time to safely buy.

I think we are about half-way there in nominal price drops. But we are probably only about 1/3 the way there in time (inflation).
While it clearly is a better time to buy now than it was in 2005, I don’t think we are on a new lower plateau.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top
In nominal price terms I might actually agree. But that does not mean it’s time to safely buy.

I think we are about half-way there in nominal price drops. But we are probably only about 1/3 the way there in time (inflation).
While it clearly is a better time to buy now than it was in 2005, I don’t think we are on a new lower plateau.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR. It is not about timing the bottom. It is about finiding opportunities that present reasonable chances of actually improving ones situation instead of damaging it. There are not many RE opportunities out there for that, which are also going to be a good parameter match, for most people.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR. It is not about timing the bottom. It is about finiding opportunities that present reasonable chances of actually improving ones situation instead of damaging it. There are not many RE opportunities out there for that, which are also going to be a good parameter match, for most people.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR. It is not about timing the bottom. It is about finiding opportunities that present reasonable chances of actually improving ones situation instead of damaging it. There are not many RE opportunities out there for that, which are also going to be a good parameter match, for most people.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR. It is not about timing the bottom. It is about finiding opportunities that present reasonable chances of actually improving ones situation instead of damaging it. There are not many RE opportunities out there for that, which are also going to be a good parameter match, for most people.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR. It is not about timing the bottom. It is about finiding opportunities that present reasonable chances of actually improving ones situation instead of damaging it. There are not many RE opportunities out there for that, which are also going to be a good parameter match, for most people.

[Raybyrnes]

Rustico
I think the chart is one sided from the side of those who own and own for investment purposes.

BTW I like the chart. I think that the recent new about the Fed stepping in to help has increased optimism. If the government can help with freezing mortgages as one step what else might they step in and do?

[Raybyrnes]

Rustico
I think the chart is one sided from the side of those who own and own for investment purposes.

BTW I like the chart. I think that the recent new about the Fed stepping in to help has increased optimism. If the government can help with freezing mortgages as one step what else might they step in and do?

[Raybyrnes]

Rustico
I think the chart is one sided from the side of those who own and own for investment purposes.

BTW I like the chart. I think that the recent new about the Fed stepping in to help has increased optimism. If the government can help with freezing mortgages as one step what else might they step in and do?

[Raybyrnes]

Rustico
I think the chart is one sided from the side of those who own and own for investment purposes.

BTW I like the chart. I think that the recent new about the Fed stepping in to help has increased optimism. If the government can help with freezing mortgages as one step what else might they step in and do?

[Raybyrnes]

Rustico
I think the chart is one sided from the side of those who own and own for investment purposes.

BTW I like the chart. I think that the recent new about the Fed stepping in to help has increased optimism. If the government can help with freezing mortgages as one step what else might they step in and do?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My favorite method for finding the bottom is to take an established (older) first-time home buyer neighborhood which tends to track the SD median and do rent versus own calculations.

Every couple months I do this for houses in Clairemont. Last time I did this was a couple weeks ago. I came up with plenty of examples of houses on the market that (after taxes) are about 300 bucks a month away from being equivalent (on a monthly basis) from renting, assuming 20% down. When this calculation reveals about the same margin with 5% down, that’s when I would be comfortable that the down-side risk is minimized.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My favorite method for finding the bottom is to take an established (older) first-time home buyer neighborhood which tends to track the SD median and do rent versus own calculations.

Every couple months I do this for houses in Clairemont. Last time I did this was a couple weeks ago. I came up with plenty of examples of houses on the market that (after taxes) are about 300 bucks a month away from being equivalent (on a monthly basis) from renting, assuming 20% down. When this calculation reveals about the same margin with 5% down, that’s when I would be comfortable that the down-side risk is minimized.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My favorite method for finding the bottom is to take an established (older) first-time home buyer neighborhood which tends to track the SD median and do rent versus own calculations.

Every couple months I do this for houses in Clairemont. Last time I did this was a couple weeks ago. I came up with plenty of examples of houses on the market that (after taxes) are about 300 bucks a month away from being equivalent (on a monthly basis) from renting, assuming 20% down. When this calculation reveals about the same margin with 5% down, that’s when I would be comfortable that the down-side risk is minimized.

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