Timing the Bottom

[SD Realtor]

Not only would I agree with sdrealtor about denial and fear, there are some people who have not even hit denial yet!

To the poster/posters who have suddenly made themselves available, perhaps a more rational discourse would be in order regarding hitting the bottom. Personally my measure will be sales volume, inventory levels, a study of several ratios such as cancelled, expirations, withdrawns, pendings, and solds verses actives and verses each other.

Really, the only unbiased measure we have is data. It does not matter whether you are a bear or a bull…

You may want to flame everyone on the site for being real estate hating, bitter renters who are broke and who think the sky is falling. In reality most everyone who does post here IN FACT WANTS TO BUY A HOME! There is also a large segment of people who do not post here who are in the same boat.

Clearly most people are intelligent enough to know that hitting the bottom is difficult if not impossible. It is simply about trying to reduce risk. As smart as you or your friends who are recently posting are, you know this to be true and you most likely know or if not are in denial yourself, that the risk premium is still high enough to outweigh the price premiums still being requested. Show me statistics such as sales volume and other ratios that prove otherwise and I may consider your argument.

Per the post that FSD made, if you miss the bottom it is not the end of the world because you will indeed catch the up side which clearly is not a bad thing. The probability of a steep slope of appreciation is clearly very small.

Your argument regarding foreclosures is very uninformed. A few weeks back I had someone call me from an investment group. This group wanted some research done as they were investigating a bulk purchase of 50-100 homes in a Citibank portfolio. They were gathering information from several sources to get a feel for market times and worst case estimate scenarios for various neighborhoods in San Diego. They ask me to for some stats and I helped them. In the end they were adjusting the price offering to Citibank for about 50% of what trustee sales prices were for these properties for a bulk purchase of all of them. These properties varied in location from Eastlake to El Cajon, Escondido and other mid-lower level homes.

So your argument about foreclosures and such is not only very misinformed, it is very much out of touch if you feel it is an indicator of any sort of volume. When you clearly want to move the discussion into a more data oriented direction that is less speculative I am willing to chat some more.

Until then I think you are having fun stirring up the nest which is okay by me but I will not waste my time responding to your posts regardless of which registered name you use.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Not only would I agree with sdrealtor about denial and fear, there are some people who have not even hit denial yet!

To the poster/posters who have suddenly made themselves available, perhaps a more rational discourse would be in order regarding hitting the bottom. Personally my measure will be sales volume, inventory levels, a study of several ratios such as cancelled, expirations, withdrawns, pendings, and solds verses actives and verses each other.

Really, the only unbiased measure we have is data. It does not matter whether you are a bear or a bull…

You may want to flame everyone on the site for being real estate hating, bitter renters who are broke and who think the sky is falling. In reality most everyone who does post here IN FACT WANTS TO BUY A HOME! There is also a large segment of people who do not post here who are in the same boat.

Clearly most people are intelligent enough to know that hitting the bottom is difficult if not impossible. It is simply about trying to reduce risk. As smart as you or your friends who are recently posting are, you know this to be true and you most likely know or if not are in denial yourself, that the risk premium is still high enough to outweigh the price premiums still being requested. Show me statistics such as sales volume and other ratios that prove otherwise and I may consider your argument.

Per the post that FSD made, if you miss the bottom it is not the end of the world because you will indeed catch the up side which clearly is not a bad thing. The probability of a steep slope of appreciation is clearly very small.

Your argument regarding foreclosures is very uninformed. A few weeks back I had someone call me from an investment group. This group wanted some research done as they were investigating a bulk purchase of 50-100 homes in a Citibank portfolio. They were gathering information from several sources to get a feel for market times and worst case estimate scenarios for various neighborhoods in San Diego. They ask me to for some stats and I helped them. In the end they were adjusting the price offering to Citibank for about 50% of what trustee sales prices were for these properties for a bulk purchase of all of them. These properties varied in location from Eastlake to El Cajon, Escondido and other mid-lower level homes.

So your argument about foreclosures and such is not only very misinformed, it is very much out of touch if you feel it is an indicator of any sort of volume. When you clearly want to move the discussion into a more data oriented direction that is less speculative I am willing to chat some more.

Until then I think you are having fun stirring up the nest which is okay by me but I will not waste my time responding to your posts regardless of which registered name you use.

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

Where is comfortable on that chart?

[NotCranky]

Where is comfortable on that chart?

[NotCranky]

Where is comfortable on that chart?

[NotCranky]

Where is comfortable on that chart?

[NotCranky]

Where is comfortable on that chart?

[NYCLurker]

Here's how this NY-er waiting for the right 2/2 in CV knows it's not yet the bottom — when a bank-owned listing can still blast a -15% cannonball onto the MLS!:

Location                             Price                         Days

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #27  $350,000 to $409,876  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #73  $379,000                   110

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #28  $380,000 to $399,900  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #82  $325,000                    1

At this rate in 2008 I'll be looking at houses instead!

[NYCLurker]

Here's how this NY-er waiting for the right 2/2 in CV knows it's not yet the bottom — when a bank-owned listing can still blast a -15% cannonball onto the MLS!:

Location                             Price                         Days

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #27  $350,000 to $409,876  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #73  $379,000                   110

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #28  $380,000 to $399,900  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #82  $325,000                    1

At this rate in 2008 I'll be looking at houses instead!

[NYCLurker]

Here's how this NY-er waiting for the right 2/2 in CV knows it's not yet the bottom — when a bank-owned listing can still blast a -15% cannonball onto the MLS!:

Location                             Price                         Days

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #27  $350,000 to $409,876  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #73  $379,000                   110

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #28  $380,000 to $399,900  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #82  $325,000                    1

At this rate in 2008 I'll be looking at houses instead!

[NYCLurker]

Here's how this NY-er waiting for the right 2/2 in CV knows it's not yet the bottom — when a bank-owned listing can still blast a -15% cannonball onto the MLS!:

Location                             Price                         Days

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #27  $350,000 to $409,876  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #73  $379,000                   110

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #28  $380,000 to $399,900  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #82  $325,000                    1

At this rate in 2008 I'll be looking at houses instead!

[NYCLurker]

Here's how this NY-er waiting for the right 2/2 in CV knows it's not yet the bottom — when a bank-owned listing can still blast a -15% cannonball onto the MLS!:

Location                             Price                         Days

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #27  $350,000 to $409,876  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #73  $379,000                   110

12588 Carmel Creek Rd #28  $380,000 to $399,900  35

12570 Carmel Creek Rd #82  $325,000                    1

At this rate in 2008 I'll be looking at houses instead!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top
In nominal price terms I might actually agree. But that does not mean it’s time to safely buy.

I think we are about half-way there in nominal price drops. But we are probably only about 1/3 the way there in time (inflation).
While it clearly is a better time to buy now than it was in 2005, I don’t think we are on a new lower plateau.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top
In nominal price terms I might actually agree. But that does not mean it’s time to safely buy.

I think we are about half-way there in nominal price drops. But we are probably only about 1/3 the way there in time (inflation).
While it clearly is a better time to buy now than it was in 2005, I don’t think we are on a new lower plateau.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top
In nominal price terms I might actually agree. But that does not mean it’s time to safely buy.

I think we are about half-way there in nominal price drops. But we are probably only about 1/3 the way there in time (inflation).
While it clearly is a better time to buy now than it was in 2005, I don’t think we are on a new lower plateau.

[Author]

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