Time to Start Predicting for 2010

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

GS: Google Phone = Qualcomm Boon

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/01/06/goldman-google-phone-qualcomm-boon/?mod=yahoo_hs

Also talk of Qcom starting it’s own TV over cell phone Biz.

[poorgradstudent]

2010 is probably the hardest year to predict since I’ve been coming to PIggington.

2009 showed us that government intervention can have a huge effect on the stock market and housing market, especially in the short run.

As of January 2010 I feel that Housing, the Stock Market, and Gold are all slightly overvalued. However, none are so far inflated that government intervention in the form of printing money or targeted incentives can’t prop up any or all of them.

San Diego’s housing market isn’t exactly affordable, but I’ve seen houses in the neighborhood I live (92116) selling at prices that shock me. 2010 could easily be a flat year for real estate with seasonal fluctuations.

The overall economy will continue recovering with job growth emerging sometime between June and December. Politically the Democrats have a lot of incentive to try to accelerate that growth, while the Republicans hav ea lot of incentive to stall and stagnate. Recovery is coming, but the timing by a few months could have a huge impact on the election cycle.

[poorgradstudent]

2010 is probably the hardest year to predict since I’ve been coming to PIggington.

2009 showed us that government intervention can have a huge effect on the stock market and housing market, especially in the short run.

As of January 2010 I feel that Housing, the Stock Market, and Gold are all slightly overvalued. However, none are so far inflated that government intervention in the form of printing money or targeted incentives can’t prop up any or all of them.

San Diego’s housing market isn’t exactly affordable, but I’ve seen houses in the neighborhood I live (92116) selling at prices that shock me. 2010 could easily be a flat year for real estate with seasonal fluctuations.

The overall economy will continue recovering with job growth emerging sometime between June and December. Politically the Democrats have a lot of incentive to try to accelerate that growth, while the Republicans hav ea lot of incentive to stall and stagnate. Recovery is coming, but the timing by a few months could have a huge impact on the election cycle.

[poorgradstudent]

2010 is probably the hardest year to predict since I’ve been coming to PIggington.

2009 showed us that government intervention can have a huge effect on the stock market and housing market, especially in the short run.

As of January 2010 I feel that Housing, the Stock Market, and Gold are all slightly overvalued. However, none are so far inflated that government intervention in the form of printing money or targeted incentives can’t prop up any or all of them.

San Diego’s housing market isn’t exactly affordable, but I’ve seen houses in the neighborhood I live (92116) selling at prices that shock me. 2010 could easily be a flat year for real estate with seasonal fluctuations.

The overall economy will continue recovering with job growth emerging sometime between June and December. Politically the Democrats have a lot of incentive to try to accelerate that growth, while the Republicans hav ea lot of incentive to stall and stagnate. Recovery is coming, but the timing by a few months could have a huge impact on the election cycle.

[poorgradstudent]

2010 is probably the hardest year to predict since I’ve been coming to PIggington.

2009 showed us that government intervention can have a huge effect on the stock market and housing market, especially in the short run.

As of January 2010 I feel that Housing, the Stock Market, and Gold are all slightly overvalued. However, none are so far inflated that government intervention in the form of printing money or targeted incentives can’t prop up any or all of them.

San Diego’s housing market isn’t exactly affordable, but I’ve seen houses in the neighborhood I live (92116) selling at prices that shock me. 2010 could easily be a flat year for real estate with seasonal fluctuations.

The overall economy will continue recovering with job growth emerging sometime between June and December. Politically the Democrats have a lot of incentive to try to accelerate that growth, while the Republicans hav ea lot of incentive to stall and stagnate. Recovery is coming, but the timing by a few months could have a huge impact on the election cycle.

[poorgradstudent]

2010 is probably the hardest year to predict since I’ve been coming to PIggington.

2009 showed us that government intervention can have a huge effect on the stock market and housing market, especially in the short run.

As of January 2010 I feel that Housing, the Stock Market, and Gold are all slightly overvalued. However, none are so far inflated that government intervention in the form of printing money or targeted incentives can’t prop up any or all of them.

San Diego’s housing market isn’t exactly affordable, but I’ve seen houses in the neighborhood I live (92116) selling at prices that shock me. 2010 could easily be a flat year for real estate with seasonal fluctuations.

The overall economy will continue recovering with job growth emerging sometime between June and December. Politically the Democrats have a lot of incentive to try to accelerate that growth, while the Republicans hav ea lot of incentive to stall and stagnate. Recovery is coming, but the timing by a few months could have a huge impact on the election cycle.

[sdduuuude]

My take on 2010 is – a whole lotta nuthin’.
Or, maybe “the calm before the storm.”

My heart tells me things are really going to head south in 2010, but my head knows that things always take longer than my heart expects. Or, maybe it’s my head that thinks things will head south in 2010 and my heart that says it won’t. Not sure.

(You should add “Stock Market:” and “Retail/Christmas Shopping:” to the list, by the way.)

All will appear normal in 2010 but potential credit stress, light consumer demand, and reductions in government support will quietly threaten the economy throughout the year and possibly start to affect the economy as the year closes.

I expect a “normal” year for SD housing. Prices down a little in Q1, up a bit in the Spring, and back down in Q4 with year-over-year deltas each month ranging from -5% to up 5%.

Carmel Valley 900K SFRs will not “break” this year. Maybe next or even 2012.

Unemployment will be the frustration factor for the year and will be the indicator that not all is right. Stimulation can create “make work” jobs but can’t really fuel the real demand growth that is needed to keep people working long-term. Unemployment down a perrcentage point his year. Maybe two.

In March of 2009, I thought we would have a stock market crash in Oct 2009. By August, I decided it wouldn’t happen. Too obvious. In Aug. 2009, I figured it could come after Q4 financial reports – in Feb 2010. By Nov. 2009, I decided Q1 was again too early. I’m back to a potential bear market return in Oct of 2010. May not happen until early 2011, though. Just going to take some time to shake investor belief in the recovery.

Of IRA money I invest for myself, I took all cash out of stocks in Sept. 2008 and haven’t put it back in yet. I probably won’t do so for another year at least.

I’m not sure what to think about Oil or Gold. I participate in Tim Iacono’s “Gold and Oil” prediction contest occasionally and I suck at it. As I have mentioned before, I think Gold will take a hit when the stock market takes a hit, then recover quickly (after a month or two) while the stock market continues to drop. The timing of the stock market hit is the hard part. Could be this year. Could be 2 or 3 years away. To support my “whole lotta nuthin” prediction, I’ll say gold is down just a bit – 5% or so for 2010, poised to first drop to 850, then head past 1200 in 2011.

Oil ? I’ll say what I always say when I have no idea – Oil will be flat.

Christmas season will be solid. Maybe up a bit from Dec. 2009.

The US $ will stay the universal currency for a long time and may come up in 2010 – I’ll say up 5% relative to other currencies. Yes, it is a fiat currency, but so is everything else, and everyone else has similar, or bigger issues than the US, including the Euro. I don’t see the crash of the dollar preceeding the crash of any other currency.

I also predict that local governments will be near the breaking point by the end of the year. Bankrupcy will be the “in” policy for local government and it will wreak havoc on unions, wages and employment, setting the stage for a rough 2011. Of course, timing on that could be a couple years early. I’d like to precict that at least one state will go bankrupt, but I think the Feds would save them.

At the start of 2011, we will be poised for a bad year to come, and possibly be at the start of a new recession.

It seems that this recession has not caught up to the “high end.” Those who had money before the recession rode it out and made it through fairly unscathed. The same cannot be said for the next one. It is going to rip into the bank accounts of business owners, professionals, and mid-to-upper management more viciously.

This is all based on my usual rigorous “analysis” which is done entirely in my head as I type 😐

[sdduuuude]

My take on 2010 is – a whole lotta nuthin’.
Or, maybe “the calm before the storm.”

My heart tells me things are really going to head south in 2010, but my head knows that things always take longer than my heart expects. Or, maybe it’s my head that thinks things will head south in 2010 and my heart that says it won’t. Not sure.

(You should add “Stock Market:” and “Retail/Christmas Shopping:” to the list, by the way.)

All will appear normal in 2010 but potential credit stress, light consumer demand, and reductions in government support will quietly threaten the economy throughout the year and possibly start to affect the economy as the year closes.

I expect a “normal” year for SD housing. Prices down a little in Q1, up a bit in the Spring, and back down in Q4 with year-over-year deltas each month ranging from -5% to up 5%.

Carmel Valley 900K SFRs will not “break” this year. Maybe next or even 2012.

Unemployment will be the frustration factor for the year and will be the indicator that not all is right. Stimulation can create “make work” jobs but can’t really fuel the real demand growth that is needed to keep people working long-term. Unemployment down a perrcentage point his year. Maybe two.

In March of 2009, I thought we would have a stock market crash in Oct 2009. By August, I decided it wouldn’t happen. Too obvious. In Aug. 2009, I figured it could come after Q4 financial reports – in Feb 2010. By Nov. 2009, I decided Q1 was again too early. I’m back to a potential bear market return in Oct of 2010. May not happen until early 2011, though. Just going to take some time to shake investor belief in the recovery.

Of IRA money I invest for myself, I took all cash out of stocks in Sept. 2008 and haven’t put it back in yet. I probably won’t do so for another year at least.

I’m not sure what to think about Oil or Gold. I participate in Tim Iacono’s “Gold and Oil” prediction contest occasionally and I suck at it. As I have mentioned before, I think Gold will take a hit when the stock market takes a hit, then recover quickly (after a month or two) while the stock market continues to drop. The timing of the stock market hit is the hard part. Could be this year. Could be 2 or 3 years away. To support my “whole lotta nuthin” prediction, I’ll say gold is down just a bit – 5% or so for 2010, poised to first drop to 850, then head past 1200 in 2011.

Oil ? I’ll say what I always say when I have no idea – Oil will be flat.

Christmas season will be solid. Maybe up a bit from Dec. 2009.

The US $ will stay the universal currency for a long time and may come up in 2010 – I’ll say up 5% relative to other currencies. Yes, it is a fiat currency, but so is everything else, and everyone else has similar, or bigger issues than the US, including the Euro. I don’t see the crash of the dollar preceeding the crash of any other currency.

I also predict that local governments will be near the breaking point by the end of the year. Bankrupcy will be the “in” policy for local government and it will wreak havoc on unions, wages and employment, setting the stage for a rough 2011. Of course, timing on that could be a couple years early. I’d like to precict that at least one state will go bankrupt, but I think the Feds would save them.

At the start of 2011, we will be poised for a bad year to come, and possibly be at the start of a new recession.

It seems that this recession has not caught up to the “high end.” Those who had money before the recession rode it out and made it through fairly unscathed. The same cannot be said for the next one. It is going to rip into the bank accounts of business owners, professionals, and mid-to-upper management more viciously.

This is all based on my usual rigorous “analysis” which is done entirely in my head as I type 😐

[sdduuuude]

My take on 2010 is – a whole lotta nuthin’.
Or, maybe “the calm before the storm.”

My heart tells me things are really going to head south in 2010, but my head knows that things always take longer than my heart expects. Or, maybe it’s my head that thinks things will head south in 2010 and my heart that says it won’t. Not sure.

(You should add “Stock Market:” and “Retail/Christmas Shopping:” to the list, by the way.)

All will appear normal in 2010 but potential credit stress, light consumer demand, and reductions in government support will quietly threaten the economy throughout the year and possibly start to affect the economy as the year closes.

I expect a “normal” year for SD housing. Prices down a little in Q1, up a bit in the Spring, and back down in Q4 with year-over-year deltas each month ranging from -5% to up 5%.

Carmel Valley 900K SFRs will not “break” this year. Maybe next or even 2012.

Unemployment will be the frustration factor for the year and will be the indicator that not all is right. Stimulation can create “make work” jobs but can’t really fuel the real demand growth that is needed to keep people working long-term. Unemployment down a perrcentage point his year. Maybe two.

In March of 2009, I thought we would have a stock market crash in Oct 2009. By August, I decided it wouldn’t happen. Too obvious. In Aug. 2009, I figured it could come after Q4 financial reports – in Feb 2010. By Nov. 2009, I decided Q1 was again too early. I’m back to a potential bear market return in Oct of 2010. May not happen until early 2011, though. Just going to take some time to shake investor belief in the recovery.

Of IRA money I invest for myself, I took all cash out of stocks in Sept. 2008 and haven’t put it back in yet. I probably won’t do so for another year at least.

I’m not sure what to think about Oil or Gold. I participate in Tim Iacono’s “Gold and Oil” prediction contest occasionally and I suck at it. As I have mentioned before, I think Gold will take a hit when the stock market takes a hit, then recover quickly (after a month or two) while the stock market continues to drop. The timing of the stock market hit is the hard part. Could be this year. Could be 2 or 3 years away. To support my “whole lotta nuthin” prediction, I’ll say gold is down just a bit – 5% or so for 2010, poised to first drop to 850, then head past 1200 in 2011.

Oil ? I’ll say what I always say when I have no idea – Oil will be flat.

Christmas season will be solid. Maybe up a bit from Dec. 2009.

The US $ will stay the universal currency for a long time and may come up in 2010 – I’ll say up 5% relative to other currencies. Yes, it is a fiat currency, but so is everything else, and everyone else has similar, or bigger issues than the US, including the Euro. I don’t see the crash of the dollar preceeding the crash of any other currency.

I also predict that local governments will be near the breaking point by the end of the year. Bankrupcy will be the “in” policy for local government and it will wreak havoc on unions, wages and employment, setting the stage for a rough 2011. Of course, timing on that could be a couple years early. I’d like to precict that at least one state will go bankrupt, but I think the Feds would save them.

At the start of 2011, we will be poised for a bad year to come, and possibly be at the start of a new recession.

It seems that this recession has not caught up to the “high end.” Those who had money before the recession rode it out and made it through fairly unscathed. The same cannot be said for the next one. It is going to rip into the bank accounts of business owners, professionals, and mid-to-upper management more viciously.

This is all based on my usual rigorous “analysis” which is done entirely in my head as I type 😐

[sdduuuude]

My take on 2010 is – a whole lotta nuthin’.
Or, maybe “the calm before the storm.”

My heart tells me things are really going to head south in 2010, but my head knows that things always take longer than my heart expects. Or, maybe it’s my head that thinks things will head south in 2010 and my heart that says it won’t. Not sure.

(You should add “Stock Market:” and “Retail/Christmas Shopping:” to the list, by the way.)

All will appear normal in 2010 but potential credit stress, light consumer demand, and reductions in government support will quietly threaten the economy throughout the year and possibly start to affect the economy as the year closes.

I expect a “normal” year for SD housing. Prices down a little in Q1, up a bit in the Spring, and back down in Q4 with year-over-year deltas each month ranging from -5% to up 5%.

Carmel Valley 900K SFRs will not “break” this year. Maybe next or even 2012.

Unemployment will be the frustration factor for the year and will be the indicator that not all is right. Stimulation can create “make work” jobs but can’t really fuel the real demand growth that is needed to keep people working long-term. Unemployment down a perrcentage point his year. Maybe two.

In March of 2009, I thought we would have a stock market crash in Oct 2009. By August, I decided it wouldn’t happen. Too obvious. In Aug. 2009, I figured it could come after Q4 financial reports – in Feb 2010. By Nov. 2009, I decided Q1 was again too early. I’m back to a potential bear market return in Oct of 2010. May not happen until early 2011, though. Just going to take some time to shake investor belief in the recovery.

Of IRA money I invest for myself, I took all cash out of stocks in Sept. 2008 and haven’t put it back in yet. I probably won’t do so for another year at least.

I’m not sure what to think about Oil or Gold. I participate in Tim Iacono’s “Gold and Oil” prediction contest occasionally and I suck at it. As I have mentioned before, I think Gold will take a hit when the stock market takes a hit, then recover quickly (after a month or two) while the stock market continues to drop. The timing of the stock market hit is the hard part. Could be this year. Could be 2 or 3 years away. To support my “whole lotta nuthin” prediction, I’ll say gold is down just a bit – 5% or so for 2010, poised to first drop to 850, then head past 1200 in 2011.

Oil ? I’ll say what I always say when I have no idea – Oil will be flat.

Christmas season will be solid. Maybe up a bit from Dec. 2009.

The US $ will stay the universal currency for a long time and may come up in 2010 – I’ll say up 5% relative to other currencies. Yes, it is a fiat currency, but so is everything else, and everyone else has similar, or bigger issues than the US, including the Euro. I don’t see the crash of the dollar preceeding the crash of any other currency.

I also predict that local governments will be near the breaking point by the end of the year. Bankrupcy will be the “in” policy for local government and it will wreak havoc on unions, wages and employment, setting the stage for a rough 2011. Of course, timing on that could be a couple years early. I’d like to precict that at least one state will go bankrupt, but I think the Feds would save them.

At the start of 2011, we will be poised for a bad year to come, and possibly be at the start of a new recession.

It seems that this recession has not caught up to the “high end.” Those who had money before the recession rode it out and made it through fairly unscathed. The same cannot be said for the next one. It is going to rip into the bank accounts of business owners, professionals, and mid-to-upper management more viciously.

This is all based on my usual rigorous “analysis” which is done entirely in my head as I type 😐

[sdduuuude]

My take on 2010 is – a whole lotta nuthin’.
Or, maybe “the calm before the storm.”

My heart tells me things are really going to head south in 2010, but my head knows that things always take longer than my heart expects. Or, maybe it’s my head that thinks things will head south in 2010 and my heart that says it won’t. Not sure.

(You should add “Stock Market:” and “Retail/Christmas Shopping:” to the list, by the way.)

All will appear normal in 2010 but potential credit stress, light consumer demand, and reductions in government support will quietly threaten the economy throughout the year and possibly start to affect the economy as the year closes.

I expect a “normal” year for SD housing. Prices down a little in Q1, up a bit in the Spring, and back down in Q4 with year-over-year deltas each month ranging from -5% to up 5%.

Carmel Valley 900K SFRs will not “break” this year. Maybe next or even 2012.

Unemployment will be the frustration factor for the year and will be the indicator that not all is right. Stimulation can create “make work” jobs but can’t really fuel the real demand growth that is needed to keep people working long-term. Unemployment down a perrcentage point his year. Maybe two.

In March of 2009, I thought we would have a stock market crash in Oct 2009. By August, I decided it wouldn’t happen. Too obvious. In Aug. 2009, I figured it could come after Q4 financial reports – in Feb 2010. By Nov. 2009, I decided Q1 was again too early. I’m back to a potential bear market return in Oct of 2010. May not happen until early 2011, though. Just going to take some time to shake investor belief in the recovery.

Of IRA money I invest for myself, I took all cash out of stocks in Sept. 2008 and haven’t put it back in yet. I probably won’t do so for another year at least.

I’m not sure what to think about Oil or Gold. I participate in Tim Iacono’s “Gold and Oil” prediction contest occasionally and I suck at it. As I have mentioned before, I think Gold will take a hit when the stock market takes a hit, then recover quickly (after a month or two) while the stock market continues to drop. The timing of the stock market hit is the hard part. Could be this year. Could be 2 or 3 years away. To support my “whole lotta nuthin” prediction, I’ll say gold is down just a bit – 5% or so for 2010, poised to first drop to 850, then head past 1200 in 2011.

Oil ? I’ll say what I always say when I have no idea – Oil will be flat.

Christmas season will be solid. Maybe up a bit from Dec. 2009.

The US $ will stay the universal currency for a long time and may come up in 2010 – I’ll say up 5% relative to other currencies. Yes, it is a fiat currency, but so is everything else, and everyone else has similar, or bigger issues than the US, including the Euro. I don’t see the crash of the dollar preceeding the crash of any other currency.

I also predict that local governments will be near the breaking point by the end of the year. Bankrupcy will be the “in” policy for local government and it will wreak havoc on unions, wages and employment, setting the stage for a rough 2011. Of course, timing on that could be a couple years early. I’d like to precict that at least one state will go bankrupt, but I think the Feds would save them.

At the start of 2011, we will be poised for a bad year to come, and possibly be at the start of a new recession.

It seems that this recession has not caught up to the “high end.” Those who had money before the recession rode it out and made it through fairly unscathed. The same cannot be said for the next one. It is going to rip into the bank accounts of business owners, professionals, and mid-to-upper management more viciously.

This is all based on my usual rigorous “analysis” which is done entirely in my head as I type 😐

[sdduuuude]

Interesting note on recent national rent decreases and a call for more in the next 6 months.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/apartment-vacancy-rate-highest-on.html

That’ll start to take a toll on housing in late 2010 or 2011.

[sdduuuude]

Interesting note on recent national rent decreases and a call for more in the next 6 months.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/apartment-vacancy-rate-highest-on.html

That’ll start to take a toll on housing in late 2010 or 2011.

[sdduuuude]

Interesting note on recent national rent decreases and a call for more in the next 6 months.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/apartment-vacancy-rate-highest-on.html

That’ll start to take a toll on housing in late 2010 or 2011.

[sdduuuude]

Interesting note on recent national rent decreases and a call for more in the next 6 months.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/apartment-vacancy-rate-highest-on.html

That’ll start to take a toll on housing in late 2010 or 2011.

[Author]

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