Time to rebuy S&P500?

[Coronita]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.” [/quote]

yeah, but this time, it’s different 🙂 Just kidding…

i’ll bookmark this thread so half of us can laugh at the end of year (hopefully it’s me :))

[Eugene]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? [/quote]

In theory, bondholders will eventually be made whole, as long as the amount of outstanding debt is smaller than the market value of all state assets (and I’m not saying it is … but that’s something that can be easily researched).

I just don’t care to test that theory for a 4.5% return.

[Eugene]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? [/quote]

In theory, bondholders will eventually be made whole, as long as the amount of outstanding debt is smaller than the market value of all state assets (and I’m not saying it is … but that’s something that can be easily researched).

I just don’t care to test that theory for a 4.5% return.

[Eugene]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? [/quote]

In theory, bondholders will eventually be made whole, as long as the amount of outstanding debt is smaller than the market value of all state assets (and I’m not saying it is … but that’s something that can be easily researched).

I just don’t care to test that theory for a 4.5% return.

[Eugene]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? [/quote]

In theory, bondholders will eventually be made whole, as long as the amount of outstanding debt is smaller than the market value of all state assets (and I’m not saying it is … but that’s something that can be easily researched).

I just don’t care to test that theory for a 4.5% return.

[Eugene]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? [/quote]

In theory, bondholders will eventually be made whole, as long as the amount of outstanding debt is smaller than the market value of all state assets (and I’m not saying it is … but that’s something that can be easily researched).

I just don’t care to test that theory for a 4.5% return.

[SmellsFeeshy]

Obviously if I had known that March was going to be the bottom I would have bought then, but when this rally started I was expecting it to fall out at any moment once bad news started to come out. At this point it certainly seems that this rally is sustaining for the short term and who knows when it will top out.

From a technical perspective it seems the S&P should hit resistance around high 900s to 1000 so that might be a good case for going short, although I doubt we’ll be testing the 700s again anytime soon.

Perhaps I’ll wait and see if we get back to the low 800s and go long then.

[SmellsFeeshy]

Obviously if I had known that March was going to be the bottom I would have bought then, but when this rally started I was expecting it to fall out at any moment once bad news started to come out. At this point it certainly seems that this rally is sustaining for the short term and who knows when it will top out.

From a technical perspective it seems the S&P should hit resistance around high 900s to 1000 so that might be a good case for going short, although I doubt we’ll be testing the 700s again anytime soon.

Perhaps I’ll wait and see if we get back to the low 800s and go long then.

[SmellsFeeshy]

Obviously if I had known that March was going to be the bottom I would have bought then, but when this rally started I was expecting it to fall out at any moment once bad news started to come out. At this point it certainly seems that this rally is sustaining for the short term and who knows when it will top out.

From a technical perspective it seems the S&P should hit resistance around high 900s to 1000 so that might be a good case for going short, although I doubt we’ll be testing the 700s again anytime soon.

Perhaps I’ll wait and see if we get back to the low 800s and go long then.

[SmellsFeeshy]

Obviously if I had known that March was going to be the bottom I would have bought then, but when this rally started I was expecting it to fall out at any moment once bad news started to come out. At this point it certainly seems that this rally is sustaining for the short term and who knows when it will top out.

From a technical perspective it seems the S&P should hit resistance around high 900s to 1000 so that might be a good case for going short, although I doubt we’ll be testing the 700s again anytime soon.

Perhaps I’ll wait and see if we get back to the low 800s and go long then.

[SmellsFeeshy]

Obviously if I had known that March was going to be the bottom I would have bought then, but when this rally started I was expecting it to fall out at any moment once bad news started to come out. At this point it certainly seems that this rally is sustaining for the short term and who knows when it will top out.

From a technical perspective it seems the S&P should hit resistance around high 900s to 1000 so that might be a good case for going short, although I doubt we’ll be testing the 700s again anytime soon.

Perhaps I’ll wait and see if we get back to the low 800s and go long then.

[Rt.66]

Conspiracy To Hide Bubble-Formation

In yet another move to make a mockery of so-called market transparency, and again with mad props to Zerohedge, we have this:

The Exchange has filed with the SEC to implement the decommissioning of the DPTRrequirement following the July 10, 2009 trade date. Accordingly, the last required submission of the DPTR will be on July 14, 2009, which is the second business day after the last trade date for which the DPTR is required.

Go read the entire Zerohedge article; what this means, in short, is that the ability of people (like you and I) to see the fact that a handful of banks, most specifically Goldman Sachs, constitute the majority of NYSE trading volume – and they’re trading for their own book, not for customers, will no longer be disclosed.

This “back and forth trade” between a handful of institutions is nothing more than the old “pump and dump” game that has been played in the OTC market forever – and almost always screws the individual investor.

This is no different than you and I selling a house back and forth between us repeatedly, each time at a higher price. We both appear to be geniuses as we’re both making a “profit”, right?

Well, no. One of us is destined to take a horrifying loss if we do not find a sucker to make the final transaction with.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1176-Conspiracy-To-Hide-Bubble-Formation.html
————–

Your goal is to not be the final transaction.

[Rt.66]

Conspiracy To Hide Bubble-Formation

In yet another move to make a mockery of so-called market transparency, and again with mad props to Zerohedge, we have this:

The Exchange has filed with the SEC to implement the decommissioning of the DPTRrequirement following the July 10, 2009 trade date. Accordingly, the last required submission of the DPTR will be on July 14, 2009, which is the second business day after the last trade date for which the DPTR is required.

Go read the entire Zerohedge article; what this means, in short, is that the ability of people (like you and I) to see the fact that a handful of banks, most specifically Goldman Sachs, constitute the majority of NYSE trading volume – and they’re trading for their own book, not for customers, will no longer be disclosed.

This “back and forth trade” between a handful of institutions is nothing more than the old “pump and dump” game that has been played in the OTC market forever – and almost always screws the individual investor.

This is no different than you and I selling a house back and forth between us repeatedly, each time at a higher price. We both appear to be geniuses as we’re both making a “profit”, right?

Well, no. One of us is destined to take a horrifying loss if we do not find a sucker to make the final transaction with.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1176-Conspiracy-To-Hide-Bubble-Formation.html
————–

Your goal is to not be the final transaction.

[Rt.66]

Conspiracy To Hide Bubble-Formation

In yet another move to make a mockery of so-called market transparency, and again with mad props to Zerohedge, we have this:

The Exchange has filed with the SEC to implement the decommissioning of the DPTRrequirement following the July 10, 2009 trade date. Accordingly, the last required submission of the DPTR will be on July 14, 2009, which is the second business day after the last trade date for which the DPTR is required.

Go read the entire Zerohedge article; what this means, in short, is that the ability of people (like you and I) to see the fact that a handful of banks, most specifically Goldman Sachs, constitute the majority of NYSE trading volume – and they’re trading for their own book, not for customers, will no longer be disclosed.

This “back and forth trade” between a handful of institutions is nothing more than the old “pump and dump” game that has been played in the OTC market forever – and almost always screws the individual investor.

This is no different than you and I selling a house back and forth between us repeatedly, each time at a higher price. We both appear to be geniuses as we’re both making a “profit”, right?

Well, no. One of us is destined to take a horrifying loss if we do not find a sucker to make the final transaction with.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1176-Conspiracy-To-Hide-Bubble-Formation.html
————–

Your goal is to not be the final transaction.

[Rt.66]

Conspiracy To Hide Bubble-Formation

In yet another move to make a mockery of so-called market transparency, and again with mad props to Zerohedge, we have this:

The Exchange has filed with the SEC to implement the decommissioning of the DPTRrequirement following the July 10, 2009 trade date. Accordingly, the last required submission of the DPTR will be on July 14, 2009, which is the second business day after the last trade date for which the DPTR is required.

Go read the entire Zerohedge article; what this means, in short, is that the ability of people (like you and I) to see the fact that a handful of banks, most specifically Goldman Sachs, constitute the majority of NYSE trading volume – and they’re trading for their own book, not for customers, will no longer be disclosed.

This “back and forth trade” between a handful of institutions is nothing more than the old “pump and dump” game that has been played in the OTC market forever – and almost always screws the individual investor.

This is no different than you and I selling a house back and forth between us repeatedly, each time at a higher price. We both appear to be geniuses as we’re both making a “profit”, right?

Well, no. One of us is destined to take a horrifying loss if we do not find a sucker to make the final transaction with.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1176-Conspiracy-To-Hide-Bubble-Formation.html
————–

Your goal is to not be the final transaction.

[Author]

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