I just re-read what you asked. I thought you meant both things, but you asked for either one. While I’m confident that your townhome won’t appreciate, I’m less confident about the rent number. I still believe it unlikely, but I’ll say 10% chance of that.
Actually, I did ask either, since I think the odds of each one jumping that much to be low.
To breakeven by buying, I need both to occur. Since either one not occuring means renting comes out pretty heavily on top, I asked either.
Bad writing on my part, but essentially I was saying what are the odds of both occuring let alone either one of the two actually jumping that much in the next five years.
I think my teachers warned me about those double negatives.
To win by buying, both housing and rents need to jump dramatically (4% a year on housing & 10% a year on rents)
I don’t think either one of those two will jump that much over the five year.
AN,
FYI, the Compass Point property is a short sale. Owner paid 335K in 2002 and MEWed their way up to a 585K loan balance. The 2nd lien is toast and the 1st is $493K. Unlikely they sold much below 450K as that is the lowest sale price in the last 6 months and it is for the much smaller unit. Also 5.5% or even 6% is a very unrealistic assumption right now. think more like 6.5%.
sdr, I know it was a short sale. Does it really matter though? I know what they paid and what they MEWed to. I didn’t bring it up because I don’t see a reason to. I’m just showing that because of these cases where sell must sell, either because of short sale or foreclosure, it will drive the market down. I’m only using 5.5 because that’s the # yahoo is giving me from online banks for a 30 year fixed.
I know for sure my rent isn’t going to increase, my landlord doesn’t believe in it. If you are a good renter and get your payments in on time, your rent doesn’t change. This is where I will weather the storm 🙂
movielover, you seem to me to be a heart driven buyer vs. a brain driven buyer. I am from the midwest, have a VERY hard time renting, all my friends back home have nice big places, while I make more than them, I am renting, my wife was really hard to convince, she won’t even look at listings anymore to get a laugh or to track changes, she says she’ll check back in 2008 (a single tear falls from my eye, a proud husband) if you look at facts, strap yourself up, invest in capitalone or hsbc high yield interest internet only savings accounts, and enjoy the ride
