The San Diego Housing Market Monitor

[an]

jpinpb, you’re making an big assumption that we’ll have inflation w/out wage inflation. I don’t think you can have one without the other for very long. Wage inflated ~35% over the last 8 years. Which is right in line with official inflation #. So, adjusted for inflation, wage didn’t go anywhere, but in nominal $ term, wage went up 35%. Over the last 8 years, we had the .com crash and the housing crash, yet wage went up 35% over nominal term.

[jpinpb]

I’m not assuming. I’m asking. Are we going to have wage inflation? We had money in people’s pockets from sales of stocks being traded and HELOCs. That accounted for extra “income.” Where are people going to get money in the next round? Are actual salaries going to increase along w/inflation?

Edit: I know some of you say the government is throw money at this as long as it takes. Seriously. 5 states out of the union. I think eventually they will just say enough is enough. Sooner or later they will DNR this patient. Getting way too expensive.

[jpinpb]

I’m not assuming. I’m asking. Are we going to have wage inflation? We had money in people’s pockets from sales of stocks being traded and HELOCs. That accounted for extra “income.” Where are people going to get money in the next round? Are actual salaries going to increase along w/inflation?

Edit: I know some of you say the government is throw money at this as long as it takes. Seriously. 5 states out of the union. I think eventually they will just say enough is enough. Sooner or later they will DNR this patient. Getting way too expensive.

[jpinpb]

I’m not assuming. I’m asking. Are we going to have wage inflation? We had money in people’s pockets from sales of stocks being traded and HELOCs. That accounted for extra “income.” Where are people going to get money in the next round? Are actual salaries going to increase along w/inflation?

Edit: I know some of you say the government is throw money at this as long as it takes. Seriously. 5 states out of the union. I think eventually they will just say enough is enough. Sooner or later they will DNR this patient. Getting way too expensive.

[jpinpb]

I’m not assuming. I’m asking. Are we going to have wage inflation? We had money in people’s pockets from sales of stocks being traded and HELOCs. That accounted for extra “income.” Where are people going to get money in the next round? Are actual salaries going to increase along w/inflation?

Edit: I know some of you say the government is throw money at this as long as it takes. Seriously. 5 states out of the union. I think eventually they will just say enough is enough. Sooner or later they will DNR this patient. Getting way too expensive.

[jpinpb]

I’m not assuming. I’m asking. Are we going to have wage inflation? We had money in people’s pockets from sales of stocks being traded and HELOCs. That accounted for extra “income.” Where are people going to get money in the next round? Are actual salaries going to increase along w/inflation?

Edit: I know some of you say the government is throw money at this as long as it takes. Seriously. 5 states out of the union. I think eventually they will just say enough is enough. Sooner or later they will DNR this patient. Getting way too expensive.

[UCGal]

I’ve felt for a while, based on anectdotal stories, that the “shadow inventory” isn’t in the bank owned properties.. It’s the limbo’d properties that the owners have stopped paying – but the bank had NOT foreclosed. For whatever reason: loan mods, moratoriums, banks not wanting to acknowlege the loss… It seems that the banks are not moving properties that are delinquent into the foreclosure/courthouse sale.

As far as inflation vs wage inflation. I’m old enough to remember a few economic cycles. The 70’s come to mind as the most obvious example – a recession with a jobless recovery. Lots of unemployment ever after the recession was nominally over. I can see that happening again.

I also think jp makes a good point. The past decade’s economic “growth” was based on over leveraged consumers. Now that credit is less free/easy, there is less money for consumers to spend. That goes for housing, retail, everything.

[UCGal]

I’ve felt for a while, based on anectdotal stories, that the “shadow inventory” isn’t in the bank owned properties.. It’s the limbo’d properties that the owners have stopped paying – but the bank had NOT foreclosed. For whatever reason: loan mods, moratoriums, banks not wanting to acknowlege the loss… It seems that the banks are not moving properties that are delinquent into the foreclosure/courthouse sale.

As far as inflation vs wage inflation. I’m old enough to remember a few economic cycles. The 70’s come to mind as the most obvious example – a recession with a jobless recovery. Lots of unemployment ever after the recession was nominally over. I can see that happening again.

I also think jp makes a good point. The past decade’s economic “growth” was based on over leveraged consumers. Now that credit is less free/easy, there is less money for consumers to spend. That goes for housing, retail, everything.

[UCGal]

I’ve felt for a while, based on anectdotal stories, that the “shadow inventory” isn’t in the bank owned properties.. It’s the limbo’d properties that the owners have stopped paying – but the bank had NOT foreclosed. For whatever reason: loan mods, moratoriums, banks not wanting to acknowlege the loss… It seems that the banks are not moving properties that are delinquent into the foreclosure/courthouse sale.

As far as inflation vs wage inflation. I’m old enough to remember a few economic cycles. The 70’s come to mind as the most obvious example – a recession with a jobless recovery. Lots of unemployment ever after the recession was nominally over. I can see that happening again.

I also think jp makes a good point. The past decade’s economic “growth” was based on over leveraged consumers. Now that credit is less free/easy, there is less money for consumers to spend. That goes for housing, retail, everything.

[UCGal]

I’ve felt for a while, based on anectdotal stories, that the “shadow inventory” isn’t in the bank owned properties.. It’s the limbo’d properties that the owners have stopped paying – but the bank had NOT foreclosed. For whatever reason: loan mods, moratoriums, banks not wanting to acknowlege the loss… It seems that the banks are not moving properties that are delinquent into the foreclosure/courthouse sale.

As far as inflation vs wage inflation. I’m old enough to remember a few economic cycles. The 70’s come to mind as the most obvious example – a recession with a jobless recovery. Lots of unemployment ever after the recession was nominally over. I can see that happening again.

I also think jp makes a good point. The past decade’s economic “growth” was based on over leveraged consumers. Now that credit is less free/easy, there is less money for consumers to spend. That goes for housing, retail, everything.

[UCGal]

I’ve felt for a while, based on anectdotal stories, that the “shadow inventory” isn’t in the bank owned properties.. It’s the limbo’d properties that the owners have stopped paying – but the bank had NOT foreclosed. For whatever reason: loan mods, moratoriums, banks not wanting to acknowlege the loss… It seems that the banks are not moving properties that are delinquent into the foreclosure/courthouse sale.

As far as inflation vs wage inflation. I’m old enough to remember a few economic cycles. The 70’s come to mind as the most obvious example – a recession with a jobless recovery. Lots of unemployment ever after the recession was nominally over. I can see that happening again.

I also think jp makes a good point. The past decade’s economic “growth” was based on over leveraged consumers. Now that credit is less free/easy, there is less money for consumers to spend. That goes for housing, retail, everything.

[an]

In that case, then yes, that’s the only way I can think of that will make home price rise again (income inflation). In some surveys, some companies are starting to unfreeze pay increases.

[an]

In that case, then yes, that’s the only way I can think of that will make home price rise again (income inflation). In some surveys, some companies are starting to unfreeze pay increases.

[an]

In that case, then yes, that’s the only way I can think of that will make home price rise again (income inflation). In some surveys, some companies are starting to unfreeze pay increases.

[an]

In that case, then yes, that’s the only way I can think of that will make home price rise again (income inflation). In some surveys, some companies are starting to unfreeze pay increases.

[Author]

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