The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdcellar]

[quote=sdrealtor]I give! I’m on the road in the 9th inning with 2 outs and 2 strikes on the batter. There’s absolutely no way I can win this……….[/quote]Hey, the Angels rallied back (to my chagrin), why can’t you? Or, is that your point?

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
As to your question “when will they sell it”, I don’t have a crystal ball so I can’t tell you when, but I can give you a clue as to why:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aDjJYMSphyM0&pid=20601087

and see if anyone else can tell us why most of its not being sold on the MLS yet. Why should I have all the fun?[/quote]

Please, Rt.66, I did not mean at all for you to be defensive. I agree w/most of what you’ve been saying. I know you don’t know what will become of the shadow and I did not intend to put you on the spot. It was meant more as a rhetorical question.

Thanks for the link. No doubt the taxpayers are in store to be on the hook for a lot more.

As I’ve said before, I think the banks will gradually list some of the properties (particularly when their loss is sweetened by taxpayers), modify what they can, which in San Diego, will be a small percentage (which anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 will default again), some sell on the steps and back on the market, still less than peak, and investors will buy some and sell for more, but still less than peak or hold and rent (injecting more rentals on the market, consequently lowering rents).

But in the end, I think we can all agree we will see some more declines. How much and how long of a process is anyone’s guess. JM2C.

Edit: This was posted on SDL regarding loan mod success. Loan modification losing hope

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
As to your question “when will they sell it”, I don’t have a crystal ball so I can’t tell you when, but I can give you a clue as to why:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aDjJYMSphyM0&pid=20601087

and see if anyone else can tell us why most of its not being sold on the MLS yet. Why should I have all the fun?[/quote]

Please, Rt.66, I did not mean at all for you to be defensive. I agree w/most of what you’ve been saying. I know you don’t know what will become of the shadow and I did not intend to put you on the spot. It was meant more as a rhetorical question.

Thanks for the link. No doubt the taxpayers are in store to be on the hook for a lot more.

As I’ve said before, I think the banks will gradually list some of the properties (particularly when their loss is sweetened by taxpayers), modify what they can, which in San Diego, will be a small percentage (which anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 will default again), some sell on the steps and back on the market, still less than peak, and investors will buy some and sell for more, but still less than peak or hold and rent (injecting more rentals on the market, consequently lowering rents).

But in the end, I think we can all agree we will see some more declines. How much and how long of a process is anyone’s guess. JM2C.

Edit: This was posted on SDL regarding loan mod success. Loan modification losing hope

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
As to your question “when will they sell it”, I don’t have a crystal ball so I can’t tell you when, but I can give you a clue as to why:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aDjJYMSphyM0&pid=20601087

and see if anyone else can tell us why most of its not being sold on the MLS yet. Why should I have all the fun?[/quote]

Please, Rt.66, I did not mean at all for you to be defensive. I agree w/most of what you’ve been saying. I know you don’t know what will become of the shadow and I did not intend to put you on the spot. It was meant more as a rhetorical question.

Thanks for the link. No doubt the taxpayers are in store to be on the hook for a lot more.

As I’ve said before, I think the banks will gradually list some of the properties (particularly when their loss is sweetened by taxpayers), modify what they can, which in San Diego, will be a small percentage (which anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 will default again), some sell on the steps and back on the market, still less than peak, and investors will buy some and sell for more, but still less than peak or hold and rent (injecting more rentals on the market, consequently lowering rents).

But in the end, I think we can all agree we will see some more declines. How much and how long of a process is anyone’s guess. JM2C.

Edit: This was posted on SDL regarding loan mod success. Loan modification losing hope

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
As to your question “when will they sell it”, I don’t have a crystal ball so I can’t tell you when, but I can give you a clue as to why:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aDjJYMSphyM0&pid=20601087

and see if anyone else can tell us why most of its not being sold on the MLS yet. Why should I have all the fun?[/quote]

Please, Rt.66, I did not mean at all for you to be defensive. I agree w/most of what you’ve been saying. I know you don’t know what will become of the shadow and I did not intend to put you on the spot. It was meant more as a rhetorical question.

Thanks for the link. No doubt the taxpayers are in store to be on the hook for a lot more.

As I’ve said before, I think the banks will gradually list some of the properties (particularly when their loss is sweetened by taxpayers), modify what they can, which in San Diego, will be a small percentage (which anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 will default again), some sell on the steps and back on the market, still less than peak, and investors will buy some and sell for more, but still less than peak or hold and rent (injecting more rentals on the market, consequently lowering rents).

But in the end, I think we can all agree we will see some more declines. How much and how long of a process is anyone’s guess. JM2C.

Edit: This was posted on SDL regarding loan mod success. Loan modification losing hope

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
As to your question “when will they sell it”, I don’t have a crystal ball so I can’t tell you when, but I can give you a clue as to why:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aDjJYMSphyM0&pid=20601087

and see if anyone else can tell us why most of its not being sold on the MLS yet. Why should I have all the fun?[/quote]

Please, Rt.66, I did not mean at all for you to be defensive. I agree w/most of what you’ve been saying. I know you don’t know what will become of the shadow and I did not intend to put you on the spot. It was meant more as a rhetorical question.

Thanks for the link. No doubt the taxpayers are in store to be on the hook for a lot more.

As I’ve said before, I think the banks will gradually list some of the properties (particularly when their loss is sweetened by taxpayers), modify what they can, which in San Diego, will be a small percentage (which anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 will default again), some sell on the steps and back on the market, still less than peak, and investors will buy some and sell for more, but still less than peak or hold and rent (injecting more rentals on the market, consequently lowering rents).

But in the end, I think we can all agree we will see some more declines. How much and how long of a process is anyone’s guess. JM2C.

Edit: This was posted on SDL regarding loan mod success. Loan modification losing hope

[sdrealtor]

sdcellar,
I couldnt resist. I love baseball analogies!

Heading up to LA on Thurs for the opener with my best friend from childhood. Then with a little luck up to Anaheim for the Main Event in another week or two.

Still no news with the denominator problem on that “conclusive proof”

[sdrealtor]

sdcellar,
I couldnt resist. I love baseball analogies!

Heading up to LA on Thurs for the opener with my best friend from childhood. Then with a little luck up to Anaheim for the Main Event in another week or two.

Still no news with the denominator problem on that “conclusive proof”

[sdrealtor]

sdcellar,
I couldnt resist. I love baseball analogies!

Heading up to LA on Thurs for the opener with my best friend from childhood. Then with a little luck up to Anaheim for the Main Event in another week or two.

Still no news with the denominator problem on that “conclusive proof”

[sdrealtor]

sdcellar,
I couldnt resist. I love baseball analogies!

Heading up to LA on Thurs for the opener with my best friend from childhood. Then with a little luck up to Anaheim for the Main Event in another week or two.

Still no news with the denominator problem on that “conclusive proof”

[sdrealtor]

sdcellar,
I couldnt resist. I love baseball analogies!

Heading up to LA on Thurs for the opener with my best friend from childhood. Then with a little luck up to Anaheim for the Main Event in another week or two.

Still no news with the denominator problem on that “conclusive proof”

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/another_bailout_package

I read this yesterday at housing wire. While short sales and deed -in-lieu make for a “graceful” exist for the FB than foreclosure, I don’t see how the latter keeps communities intact.

Maybe the deed in lieu turns into a rent back situation or something like that. Something like rent back or conversion to affordable housing would keep inventory off the market too…so would just not selling it… and these would help society. I am pretty sure a conduit will be found for all this future “shadow inventory”, if the opposite means crashing nominal prices into oblivion. O.k., maybe I’ll be wrong.Just for the record, I am certainly not being bullish just to oppress bears. If the bears are right there is a big upside to that too.Cheaper houses.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/another_bailout_package

I read this yesterday at housing wire. While short sales and deed -in-lieu make for a “graceful” exist for the FB than foreclosure, I don’t see how the latter keeps communities intact.

Maybe the deed in lieu turns into a rent back situation or something like that. Something like rent back or conversion to affordable housing would keep inventory off the market too…so would just not selling it… and these would help society. I am pretty sure a conduit will be found for all this future “shadow inventory”, if the opposite means crashing nominal prices into oblivion. O.k., maybe I’ll be wrong.Just for the record, I am certainly not being bullish just to oppress bears. If the bears are right there is a big upside to that too.Cheaper houses.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/another_bailout_package

I read this yesterday at housing wire. While short sales and deed -in-lieu make for a “graceful” exist for the FB than foreclosure, I don’t see how the latter keeps communities intact.

Maybe the deed in lieu turns into a rent back situation or something like that. Something like rent back or conversion to affordable housing would keep inventory off the market too…so would just not selling it… and these would help society. I am pretty sure a conduit will be found for all this future “shadow inventory”, if the opposite means crashing nominal prices into oblivion. O.k., maybe I’ll be wrong.Just for the record, I am certainly not being bullish just to oppress bears. If the bears are right there is a big upside to that too.Cheaper houses.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/another_bailout_package

I read this yesterday at housing wire. While short sales and deed -in-lieu make for a “graceful” exist for the FB than foreclosure, I don’t see how the latter keeps communities intact.

Maybe the deed in lieu turns into a rent back situation or something like that. Something like rent back or conversion to affordable housing would keep inventory off the market too…so would just not selling it… and these would help society. I am pretty sure a conduit will be found for all this future “shadow inventory”, if the opposite means crashing nominal prices into oblivion. O.k., maybe I’ll be wrong.Just for the record, I am certainly not being bullish just to oppress bears. If the bears are right there is a big upside to that too.Cheaper houses.

[Author]

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