The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[jpinpb]

So maybe men just need some estrogen. Imagine all the wars we’d stop. Everyone would just be crying for no reason. LOL. 😉

[Anonymous]

[quote=temeculaguy]Rt.66, you are quickly becoming the most annoying participant on the boards, it’s painful to read your posts sometimes.[/quote]

On the contrary, by pressing on points to find out where they lead, Rt.66 has made this one of the most worthwhile threads on Piggington in six months. Yes, some of the postings take aim at the motives of a professional realtor, but the site would be nothing without challenging the predictions of realtors.

I have been reading Piggington off-and-on for several years (four?). In the beginning there was information here that wasn’t in the MSM. Roubini, Schiff and Thornberg got a reception here when they were being mocked by the MSM.

Now the MSM jumps at every utterance from those bears, and my sense is that Roubini and others are cautious in what they say. After all, their words now seem to be able to contribute to movement in the markets. Look at the way CNBC put words in Roubini’s mouth about two months ago to gain credibility that the worst was almost over. Besides, Roubini, Schiff and their colleagues now have other agendas, e.g. running for political office.

Where, then, does someone go for a no-holds-barred analysis? The MSM now recognizes what Piggington did years before that the credit markets were broken and housing might take a beating as a result. But now I’m interested in thoughtful discussion on how far down it is going to go, whether it will follow Japan, whether it will collapse, etc. Is it the 20% “leg down” that “even” sfrealtor predicts or deeper as Rt.66 is challenging? How much deeper?

If Rt.66’s numbers are wrong in RealtyTrac, then what about RealQuest? What about the FDIC numbers that LuckyInOC brought up? What about the reduction in credit availability that another poster raised? Where does sfrealtor get his 20% drop given these factors? How far down does Rt.66 think it’ll go?

[Anonymous]

[quote=temeculaguy]Rt.66, you are quickly becoming the most annoying participant on the boards, it’s painful to read your posts sometimes.[/quote]

On the contrary, by pressing on points to find out where they lead, Rt.66 has made this one of the most worthwhile threads on Piggington in six months. Yes, some of the postings take aim at the motives of a professional realtor, but the site would be nothing without challenging the predictions of realtors.

I have been reading Piggington off-and-on for several years (four?). In the beginning there was information here that wasn’t in the MSM. Roubini, Schiff and Thornberg got a reception here when they were being mocked by the MSM.

Now the MSM jumps at every utterance from those bears, and my sense is that Roubini and others are cautious in what they say. After all, their words now seem to be able to contribute to movement in the markets. Look at the way CNBC put words in Roubini’s mouth about two months ago to gain credibility that the worst was almost over. Besides, Roubini, Schiff and their colleagues now have other agendas, e.g. running for political office.

Where, then, does someone go for a no-holds-barred analysis? The MSM now recognizes what Piggington did years before that the credit markets were broken and housing might take a beating as a result. But now I’m interested in thoughtful discussion on how far down it is going to go, whether it will follow Japan, whether it will collapse, etc. Is it the 20% “leg down” that “even” sfrealtor predicts or deeper as Rt.66 is challenging? How much deeper?

If Rt.66’s numbers are wrong in RealtyTrac, then what about RealQuest? What about the FDIC numbers that LuckyInOC brought up? What about the reduction in credit availability that another poster raised? Where does sfrealtor get his 20% drop given these factors? How far down does Rt.66 think it’ll go?

[Anonymous]

[quote=temeculaguy]Rt.66, you are quickly becoming the most annoying participant on the boards, it’s painful to read your posts sometimes.[/quote]

On the contrary, by pressing on points to find out where they lead, Rt.66 has made this one of the most worthwhile threads on Piggington in six months. Yes, some of the postings take aim at the motives of a professional realtor, but the site would be nothing without challenging the predictions of realtors.

I have been reading Piggington off-and-on for several years (four?). In the beginning there was information here that wasn’t in the MSM. Roubini, Schiff and Thornberg got a reception here when they were being mocked by the MSM.

Now the MSM jumps at every utterance from those bears, and my sense is that Roubini and others are cautious in what they say. After all, their words now seem to be able to contribute to movement in the markets. Look at the way CNBC put words in Roubini’s mouth about two months ago to gain credibility that the worst was almost over. Besides, Roubini, Schiff and their colleagues now have other agendas, e.g. running for political office.

Where, then, does someone go for a no-holds-barred analysis? The MSM now recognizes what Piggington did years before that the credit markets were broken and housing might take a beating as a result. But now I’m interested in thoughtful discussion on how far down it is going to go, whether it will follow Japan, whether it will collapse, etc. Is it the 20% “leg down” that “even” sfrealtor predicts or deeper as Rt.66 is challenging? How much deeper?

If Rt.66’s numbers are wrong in RealtyTrac, then what about RealQuest? What about the FDIC numbers that LuckyInOC brought up? What about the reduction in credit availability that another poster raised? Where does sfrealtor get his 20% drop given these factors? How far down does Rt.66 think it’ll go?

[Anonymous]

[quote=temeculaguy]Rt.66, you are quickly becoming the most annoying participant on the boards, it’s painful to read your posts sometimes.[/quote]

On the contrary, by pressing on points to find out where they lead, Rt.66 has made this one of the most worthwhile threads on Piggington in six months. Yes, some of the postings take aim at the motives of a professional realtor, but the site would be nothing without challenging the predictions of realtors.

I have been reading Piggington off-and-on for several years (four?). In the beginning there was information here that wasn’t in the MSM. Roubini, Schiff and Thornberg got a reception here when they were being mocked by the MSM.

Now the MSM jumps at every utterance from those bears, and my sense is that Roubini and others are cautious in what they say. After all, their words now seem to be able to contribute to movement in the markets. Look at the way CNBC put words in Roubini’s mouth about two months ago to gain credibility that the worst was almost over. Besides, Roubini, Schiff and their colleagues now have other agendas, e.g. running for political office.

Where, then, does someone go for a no-holds-barred analysis? The MSM now recognizes what Piggington did years before that the credit markets were broken and housing might take a beating as a result. But now I’m interested in thoughtful discussion on how far down it is going to go, whether it will follow Japan, whether it will collapse, etc. Is it the 20% “leg down” that “even” sfrealtor predicts or deeper as Rt.66 is challenging? How much deeper?

If Rt.66’s numbers are wrong in RealtyTrac, then what about RealQuest? What about the FDIC numbers that LuckyInOC brought up? What about the reduction in credit availability that another poster raised? Where does sfrealtor get his 20% drop given these factors? How far down does Rt.66 think it’ll go?

[Anonymous]

[quote=temeculaguy]Rt.66, you are quickly becoming the most annoying participant on the boards, it’s painful to read your posts sometimes.[/quote]

On the contrary, by pressing on points to find out where they lead, Rt.66 has made this one of the most worthwhile threads on Piggington in six months. Yes, some of the postings take aim at the motives of a professional realtor, but the site would be nothing without challenging the predictions of realtors.

I have been reading Piggington off-and-on for several years (four?). In the beginning there was information here that wasn’t in the MSM. Roubini, Schiff and Thornberg got a reception here when they were being mocked by the MSM.

Now the MSM jumps at every utterance from those bears, and my sense is that Roubini and others are cautious in what they say. After all, their words now seem to be able to contribute to movement in the markets. Look at the way CNBC put words in Roubini’s mouth about two months ago to gain credibility that the worst was almost over. Besides, Roubini, Schiff and their colleagues now have other agendas, e.g. running for political office.

Where, then, does someone go for a no-holds-barred analysis? The MSM now recognizes what Piggington did years before that the credit markets were broken and housing might take a beating as a result. But now I’m interested in thoughtful discussion on how far down it is going to go, whether it will follow Japan, whether it will collapse, etc. Is it the 20% “leg down” that “even” sfrealtor predicts or deeper as Rt.66 is challenging? How much deeper?

If Rt.66’s numbers are wrong in RealtyTrac, then what about RealQuest? What about the FDIC numbers that LuckyInOC brought up? What about the reduction in credit availability that another poster raised? Where does sfrealtor get his 20% drop given these factors? How far down does Rt.66 think it’ll go?

[Rt.66]

Thanks sfobserver, nice to know there is someone else out there seeing it.

People who listen to the bulls stand to lose a lot of money, even if the number is only 20%-30%. Sure in SD (South Dakota) 20% ain’t much but with prices as they are in SD (San Diego), 20% is a family crushing number, 30% is simply devastation.

This forum is a funny sort, not many dare confront the old guard here, and maybe because of their well honed attack method, which is:

1) First discount any source of foreclosure data or information presented.

2) Come up with a poop soaked theory pulled strait from the anus to counter the data.

3) Try and shift the argument to their opinion or personal theory versus the discounted data (which they falsely discount)

4) Shift the burden of dis-proving their BS theory over to the data presenter.

5) Rely on aid from likeminded posters (anti-data squad).

Pretty smart actually, or crafty.

Contrary to the labels attached to those who counter their theories, I am not an Uber-Bear. I have bought, sold and developed my share of properties and made good money, you don’t do those things being a perma-bear.

This is an RE forum so I hold it to that standard and if there is a market development then I’d love to learn of it. But I like a degree of accuracy/data/confirmation.

If the things the realtor was posting were real then this would be big, really big for RE. If those things were happening it would be the biggest development in 18 months and you’d think it would be all over the news. It would be a huge development.

I don’t disagree for the sport. I want a clear picture of the RE market and if someone posts something that goes contrary to all information I can find then I push to discover if it’s true or BS. So when the realtor makes statements like this:

“Alot of this so called shadow inventory/REO pipeline is in process via short sales (i.e. already on the market) or undergoing loan modifications. ”

I want to know if there is any evidence to his words. So for those of you hanging your bull hats on loan mods:

• On Thursday, Treasury announced that 500,000 homeowners had since had their payments lowered on a trial basis, celebrating this as a milestone. But the report from the oversight panel directly challenged the administration’s characterizations. Most prominently, the panel had grave uncertainty about whether large numbers of the trial loan modifications — which typically run for three months — would successfully be converted to permanent terms.

• As of the beginning of September, only 1.26 percent of trial modifications that had made it through the three-month trial period had become permanent [..]

• As of Sept. 1, the Obama plan had produced 1,711 permanent loan modifications.

NATIONWIDE.

—–

If all 1711 had been in SD it still would not dent the foreclosure numbers. Reality is that CA is not a loan mod market; the degree of under-water indebtedness is just too great here and likely zero were from SD.

[Rt.66]

Thanks sfobserver, nice to know there is someone else out there seeing it.

People who listen to the bulls stand to lose a lot of money, even if the number is only 20%-30%. Sure in SD (South Dakota) 20% ain’t much but with prices as they are in SD (San Diego), 20% is a family crushing number, 30% is simply devastation.

This forum is a funny sort, not many dare confront the old guard here, and maybe because of their well honed attack method, which is:

1) First discount any source of foreclosure data or information presented.

2) Come up with a poop soaked theory pulled strait from the anus to counter the data.

3) Try and shift the argument to their opinion or personal theory versus the discounted data (which they falsely discount)

4) Shift the burden of dis-proving their BS theory over to the data presenter.

5) Rely on aid from likeminded posters (anti-data squad).

Pretty smart actually, or crafty.

Contrary to the labels attached to those who counter their theories, I am not an Uber-Bear. I have bought, sold and developed my share of properties and made good money, you don’t do those things being a perma-bear.

This is an RE forum so I hold it to that standard and if there is a market development then I’d love to learn of it. But I like a degree of accuracy/data/confirmation.

If the things the realtor was posting were real then this would be big, really big for RE. If those things were happening it would be the biggest development in 18 months and you’d think it would be all over the news. It would be a huge development.

I don’t disagree for the sport. I want a clear picture of the RE market and if someone posts something that goes contrary to all information I can find then I push to discover if it’s true or BS. So when the realtor makes statements like this:

“Alot of this so called shadow inventory/REO pipeline is in process via short sales (i.e. already on the market) or undergoing loan modifications. ”

I want to know if there is any evidence to his words. So for those of you hanging your bull hats on loan mods:

• On Thursday, Treasury announced that 500,000 homeowners had since had their payments lowered on a trial basis, celebrating this as a milestone. But the report from the oversight panel directly challenged the administration’s characterizations. Most prominently, the panel had grave uncertainty about whether large numbers of the trial loan modifications — which typically run for three months — would successfully be converted to permanent terms.

• As of the beginning of September, only 1.26 percent of trial modifications that had made it through the three-month trial period had become permanent [..]

• As of Sept. 1, the Obama plan had produced 1,711 permanent loan modifications.

NATIONWIDE.

—–

If all 1711 had been in SD it still would not dent the foreclosure numbers. Reality is that CA is not a loan mod market; the degree of under-water indebtedness is just too great here and likely zero were from SD.

[Rt.66]

Thanks sfobserver, nice to know there is someone else out there seeing it.

People who listen to the bulls stand to lose a lot of money, even if the number is only 20%-30%. Sure in SD (South Dakota) 20% ain’t much but with prices as they are in SD (San Diego), 20% is a family crushing number, 30% is simply devastation.

This forum is a funny sort, not many dare confront the old guard here, and maybe because of their well honed attack method, which is:

1) First discount any source of foreclosure data or information presented.

2) Come up with a poop soaked theory pulled strait from the anus to counter the data.

3) Try and shift the argument to their opinion or personal theory versus the discounted data (which they falsely discount)

4) Shift the burden of dis-proving their BS theory over to the data presenter.

5) Rely on aid from likeminded posters (anti-data squad).

Pretty smart actually, or crafty.

Contrary to the labels attached to those who counter their theories, I am not an Uber-Bear. I have bought, sold and developed my share of properties and made good money, you don’t do those things being a perma-bear.

This is an RE forum so I hold it to that standard and if there is a market development then I’d love to learn of it. But I like a degree of accuracy/data/confirmation.

If the things the realtor was posting were real then this would be big, really big for RE. If those things were happening it would be the biggest development in 18 months and you’d think it would be all over the news. It would be a huge development.

I don’t disagree for the sport. I want a clear picture of the RE market and if someone posts something that goes contrary to all information I can find then I push to discover if it’s true or BS. So when the realtor makes statements like this:

“Alot of this so called shadow inventory/REO pipeline is in process via short sales (i.e. already on the market) or undergoing loan modifications. ”

I want to know if there is any evidence to his words. So for those of you hanging your bull hats on loan mods:

• On Thursday, Treasury announced that 500,000 homeowners had since had their payments lowered on a trial basis, celebrating this as a milestone. But the report from the oversight panel directly challenged the administration’s characterizations. Most prominently, the panel had grave uncertainty about whether large numbers of the trial loan modifications — which typically run for three months — would successfully be converted to permanent terms.

• As of the beginning of September, only 1.26 percent of trial modifications that had made it through the three-month trial period had become permanent [..]

• As of Sept. 1, the Obama plan had produced 1,711 permanent loan modifications.

NATIONWIDE.

—–

If all 1711 had been in SD it still would not dent the foreclosure numbers. Reality is that CA is not a loan mod market; the degree of under-water indebtedness is just too great here and likely zero were from SD.

[Rt.66]

Thanks sfobserver, nice to know there is someone else out there seeing it.

People who listen to the bulls stand to lose a lot of money, even if the number is only 20%-30%. Sure in SD (South Dakota) 20% ain’t much but with prices as they are in SD (San Diego), 20% is a family crushing number, 30% is simply devastation.

This forum is a funny sort, not many dare confront the old guard here, and maybe because of their well honed attack method, which is:

1) First discount any source of foreclosure data or information presented.

2) Come up with a poop soaked theory pulled strait from the anus to counter the data.

3) Try and shift the argument to their opinion or personal theory versus the discounted data (which they falsely discount)

4) Shift the burden of dis-proving their BS theory over to the data presenter.

5) Rely on aid from likeminded posters (anti-data squad).

Pretty smart actually, or crafty.

Contrary to the labels attached to those who counter their theories, I am not an Uber-Bear. I have bought, sold and developed my share of properties and made good money, you don’t do those things being a perma-bear.

This is an RE forum so I hold it to that standard and if there is a market development then I’d love to learn of it. But I like a degree of accuracy/data/confirmation.

If the things the realtor was posting were real then this would be big, really big for RE. If those things were happening it would be the biggest development in 18 months and you’d think it would be all over the news. It would be a huge development.

I don’t disagree for the sport. I want a clear picture of the RE market and if someone posts something that goes contrary to all information I can find then I push to discover if it’s true or BS. So when the realtor makes statements like this:

“Alot of this so called shadow inventory/REO pipeline is in process via short sales (i.e. already on the market) or undergoing loan modifications. ”

I want to know if there is any evidence to his words. So for those of you hanging your bull hats on loan mods:

• On Thursday, Treasury announced that 500,000 homeowners had since had their payments lowered on a trial basis, celebrating this as a milestone. But the report from the oversight panel directly challenged the administration’s characterizations. Most prominently, the panel had grave uncertainty about whether large numbers of the trial loan modifications — which typically run for three months — would successfully be converted to permanent terms.

• As of the beginning of September, only 1.26 percent of trial modifications that had made it through the three-month trial period had become permanent [..]

• As of Sept. 1, the Obama plan had produced 1,711 permanent loan modifications.

NATIONWIDE.

—–

If all 1711 had been in SD it still would not dent the foreclosure numbers. Reality is that CA is not a loan mod market; the degree of under-water indebtedness is just too great here and likely zero were from SD.

[Rt.66]

Thanks sfobserver, nice to know there is someone else out there seeing it.

People who listen to the bulls stand to lose a lot of money, even if the number is only 20%-30%. Sure in SD (South Dakota) 20% ain’t much but with prices as they are in SD (San Diego), 20% is a family crushing number, 30% is simply devastation.

This forum is a funny sort, not many dare confront the old guard here, and maybe because of their well honed attack method, which is:

1) First discount any source of foreclosure data or information presented.

2) Come up with a poop soaked theory pulled strait from the anus to counter the data.

3) Try and shift the argument to their opinion or personal theory versus the discounted data (which they falsely discount)

4) Shift the burden of dis-proving their BS theory over to the data presenter.

5) Rely on aid from likeminded posters (anti-data squad).

Pretty smart actually, or crafty.

Contrary to the labels attached to those who counter their theories, I am not an Uber-Bear. I have bought, sold and developed my share of properties and made good money, you don’t do those things being a perma-bear.

This is an RE forum so I hold it to that standard and if there is a market development then I’d love to learn of it. But I like a degree of accuracy/data/confirmation.

If the things the realtor was posting were real then this would be big, really big for RE. If those things were happening it would be the biggest development in 18 months and you’d think it would be all over the news. It would be a huge development.

I don’t disagree for the sport. I want a clear picture of the RE market and if someone posts something that goes contrary to all information I can find then I push to discover if it’s true or BS. So when the realtor makes statements like this:

“Alot of this so called shadow inventory/REO pipeline is in process via short sales (i.e. already on the market) or undergoing loan modifications. ”

I want to know if there is any evidence to his words. So for those of you hanging your bull hats on loan mods:

• On Thursday, Treasury announced that 500,000 homeowners had since had their payments lowered on a trial basis, celebrating this as a milestone. But the report from the oversight panel directly challenged the administration’s characterizations. Most prominently, the panel had grave uncertainty about whether large numbers of the trial loan modifications — which typically run for three months — would successfully be converted to permanent terms.

• As of the beginning of September, only 1.26 percent of trial modifications that had made it through the three-month trial period had become permanent [..]

• As of Sept. 1, the Obama plan had produced 1,711 permanent loan modifications.

NATIONWIDE.

—–

If all 1711 had been in SD it still would not dent the foreclosure numbers. Reality is that CA is not a loan mod market; the degree of under-water indebtedness is just too great here and likely zero were from SD.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[Author]

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