The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdrealtor]

I’m gonna play nice now event hough this started with you showing no respect my way based upon what I do. The funny part is you werent around 2 to 3 years ago when I was giving it to the blind bulls. Go back and see how I took your side back in the day against the Ozzie’s and Beebo’s of the world in years past. I dont see my self as a bull or bear but rather someone looking for the truth and questioning everything I see (just like you).

Got a question for you on your last bit of data. Its seems you have a denominator problem. The % for SD is so high because the denominator (active inventory)is so low here. SD and Phoenix have roughly the same population but Phoenix has 2.5X the active inventory. I beleive LA has about 2.5X the population of SD but more than 4X the active inventory. To understand the real vlue of that data we need to adjust for the size of population. Maybe you have time to do that and lets see what the numbers look like after that.

[sdrealtor]

One more thing. I beleive in shadow inventory and never said the issue I brought up of 2nds was the end all, be all but rather one of many things that will prevent much of what you beleive is shadow inventory from hitting the market in a torrential flood. Disressed properties absolutely exert downward pressure on prices just like limited inventory does the opposite. The strength of each side of the supply-demand equation will determine where we end up.

Here’s another of the many things that could weaken the shadow inventory flood case. Just got an email for a bulk sale of about $50M BPO value mostly in North County. Dont know if its real and I forwarded it to one of the posters around here to look into. We’ll have to wait and see if there’s anything to it. If true I would guess thats 100 or so properties that wont hit the open market as REO listings. More likely they would turn into rentals with great cash flow for buyer or fix/flips at retail. Once again, this is not the single answer but another piece of what is a very complex puzzle.

[sdrealtor]

One more thing. I beleive in shadow inventory and never said the issue I brought up of 2nds was the end all, be all but rather one of many things that will prevent much of what you beleive is shadow inventory from hitting the market in a torrential flood. Disressed properties absolutely exert downward pressure on prices just like limited inventory does the opposite. The strength of each side of the supply-demand equation will determine where we end up.

Here’s another of the many things that could weaken the shadow inventory flood case. Just got an email for a bulk sale of about $50M BPO value mostly in North County. Dont know if its real and I forwarded it to one of the posters around here to look into. We’ll have to wait and see if there’s anything to it. If true I would guess thats 100 or so properties that wont hit the open market as REO listings. More likely they would turn into rentals with great cash flow for buyer or fix/flips at retail. Once again, this is not the single answer but another piece of what is a very complex puzzle.

[sdrealtor]

One more thing. I beleive in shadow inventory and never said the issue I brought up of 2nds was the end all, be all but rather one of many things that will prevent much of what you beleive is shadow inventory from hitting the market in a torrential flood. Disressed properties absolutely exert downward pressure on prices just like limited inventory does the opposite. The strength of each side of the supply-demand equation will determine where we end up.

Here’s another of the many things that could weaken the shadow inventory flood case. Just got an email for a bulk sale of about $50M BPO value mostly in North County. Dont know if its real and I forwarded it to one of the posters around here to look into. We’ll have to wait and see if there’s anything to it. If true I would guess thats 100 or so properties that wont hit the open market as REO listings. More likely they would turn into rentals with great cash flow for buyer or fix/flips at retail. Once again, this is not the single answer but another piece of what is a very complex puzzle.

[sdrealtor]

One more thing. I beleive in shadow inventory and never said the issue I brought up of 2nds was the end all, be all but rather one of many things that will prevent much of what you beleive is shadow inventory from hitting the market in a torrential flood. Disressed properties absolutely exert downward pressure on prices just like limited inventory does the opposite. The strength of each side of the supply-demand equation will determine where we end up.

Here’s another of the many things that could weaken the shadow inventory flood case. Just got an email for a bulk sale of about $50M BPO value mostly in North County. Dont know if its real and I forwarded it to one of the posters around here to look into. We’ll have to wait and see if there’s anything to it. If true I would guess thats 100 or so properties that wont hit the open market as REO listings. More likely they would turn into rentals with great cash flow for buyer or fix/flips at retail. Once again, this is not the single answer but another piece of what is a very complex puzzle.

[sdrealtor]

One more thing. I beleive in shadow inventory and never said the issue I brought up of 2nds was the end all, be all but rather one of many things that will prevent much of what you beleive is shadow inventory from hitting the market in a torrential flood. Disressed properties absolutely exert downward pressure on prices just like limited inventory does the opposite. The strength of each side of the supply-demand equation will determine where we end up.

Here’s another of the many things that could weaken the shadow inventory flood case. Just got an email for a bulk sale of about $50M BPO value mostly in North County. Dont know if its real and I forwarded it to one of the posters around here to look into. We’ll have to wait and see if there’s anything to it. If true I would guess thats 100 or so properties that wont hit the open market as REO listings. More likely they would turn into rentals with great cash flow for buyer or fix/flips at retail. Once again, this is not the single answer but another piece of what is a very complex puzzle.

[NotCranky]

[quote=Rt.66]Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.[/quote]

I don’t really care anymore about the whole thing. I care about real estate but not the debate as much. I agree with Rich ,who is head and shoulders above me and usually way ahead of me in all of this. I find out that sometimes he actually agrees with what I am thinking. That is that this is not the time to get to hung up on all of this because of intervention past and future. See my post to Peter earlier on this thread. It isn’t really worth hashing over, right or wrong.

This place is just functioning as coffee shop hangout for me now. It’s 20 minutes to the nearest real coffee shop and I work between posts.

By the way you are the perfect foil for the mean realtor, he and you are the perfect foil for the nice realtor. You just pitched a guy who is selling his ass off because he is nice compared to someone who acts like a jerk. Ask for a kickback.

[NotCranky]

[quote=Rt.66]Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.[/quote]

I don’t really care anymore about the whole thing. I care about real estate but not the debate as much. I agree with Rich ,who is head and shoulders above me and usually way ahead of me in all of this. I find out that sometimes he actually agrees with what I am thinking. That is that this is not the time to get to hung up on all of this because of intervention past and future. See my post to Peter earlier on this thread. It isn’t really worth hashing over, right or wrong.

This place is just functioning as coffee shop hangout for me now. It’s 20 minutes to the nearest real coffee shop and I work between posts.

By the way you are the perfect foil for the mean realtor, he and you are the perfect foil for the nice realtor. You just pitched a guy who is selling his ass off because he is nice compared to someone who acts like a jerk. Ask for a kickback.

[NotCranky]

[quote=Rt.66]Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.[/quote]

I don’t really care anymore about the whole thing. I care about real estate but not the debate as much. I agree with Rich ,who is head and shoulders above me and usually way ahead of me in all of this. I find out that sometimes he actually agrees with what I am thinking. That is that this is not the time to get to hung up on all of this because of intervention past and future. See my post to Peter earlier on this thread. It isn’t really worth hashing over, right or wrong.

This place is just functioning as coffee shop hangout for me now. It’s 20 minutes to the nearest real coffee shop and I work between posts.

By the way you are the perfect foil for the mean realtor, he and you are the perfect foil for the nice realtor. You just pitched a guy who is selling his ass off because he is nice compared to someone who acts like a jerk. Ask for a kickback.

[NotCranky]

[quote=Rt.66]Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.[/quote]

I don’t really care anymore about the whole thing. I care about real estate but not the debate as much. I agree with Rich ,who is head and shoulders above me and usually way ahead of me in all of this. I find out that sometimes he actually agrees with what I am thinking. That is that this is not the time to get to hung up on all of this because of intervention past and future. See my post to Peter earlier on this thread. It isn’t really worth hashing over, right or wrong.

This place is just functioning as coffee shop hangout for me now. It’s 20 minutes to the nearest real coffee shop and I work between posts.

By the way you are the perfect foil for the mean realtor, he and you are the perfect foil for the nice realtor. You just pitched a guy who is selling his ass off because he is nice compared to someone who acts like a jerk. Ask for a kickback.

[NotCranky]

[quote=Rt.66]Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.[/quote]

I don’t really care anymore about the whole thing. I care about real estate but not the debate as much. I agree with Rich ,who is head and shoulders above me and usually way ahead of me in all of this. I find out that sometimes he actually agrees with what I am thinking. That is that this is not the time to get to hung up on all of this because of intervention past and future. See my post to Peter earlier on this thread. It isn’t really worth hashing over, right or wrong.

This place is just functioning as coffee shop hangout for me now. It’s 20 minutes to the nearest real coffee shop and I work between posts.

By the way you are the perfect foil for the mean realtor, he and you are the perfect foil for the nice realtor. You just pitched a guy who is selling his ass off because he is nice compared to someone who acts like a jerk. Ask for a kickback.

[temeculaguy]

Rt., I appreciate the compliments, but I am well aware I am beloved on the boards (I’m the third rail) so I hope you are not placating me to win your ongoing battle with sdrealtor. I meant what I said, you are highly intelligent and add value to conversations, I take some things away from your insight, as do others. Just let the battle with him go, you two are more similar than either of you want to believe. Don’t jump on him directly, but instead, offer a different viewpoint, perhaps your own, as opposed to quoted “so called” experts. If I may pay you a similar compliment, usually your opinion is far better than the one’s you quote. If someone says a house that was 900k will be 700k, instead of offering doom and gloom references, compile the facts in your head, come up with a number, and state it, not a shock value number but what you think, if it’s 550k or 450k, call it, and back it up as to why. Be careful not to generalize his market of the north coast, he knows his stuff, more than anyone I’ve met, he knows every tract, I’ve shared wine with him, he’s beat me in arguments going back a few years but only in his neighborhoods, so i don’t venture there anymore, you only get to be wrong so many times. You two can co-exist, it will take a fig leaf, you might have to agree with him when he earns it, but in the end, hundreds, if not thousands of people read these comments and I’ve read your stuff enough to know that is who you write for, so serve them. If you want to be one of the big boys, give some respect even when you don’t think you are getting it, because the rest of us will give it to you. humility pays off in spades.

We are entering winter, interest rates cannot hold too much longer, inflation is looming, buyers usually fade this time of year, something is going to change, soften your approach a little and more will listen, leave the door open to change because that door may be needed. I truly believe that if the mightly zip codes are going to fall, if convergence will happen, it will happen this winter and don’t you want to be around to collect the accolades.

My Taoist beliefs tell me that bamboo will survive a hurricane better than a sturdy oak, because of it’s felxibility. Swirl it around in your head and it will make sense. sdr, swords down, lets debate like gentlemen. Now about the paul newman reference, close but not nearly that good looking or charismatic. The lap is currenlty empty, it’s probably better that way, some people are best enjoyed misunderstood.

[temeculaguy]

Rt., I appreciate the compliments, but I am well aware I am beloved on the boards (I’m the third rail) so I hope you are not placating me to win your ongoing battle with sdrealtor. I meant what I said, you are highly intelligent and add value to conversations, I take some things away from your insight, as do others. Just let the battle with him go, you two are more similar than either of you want to believe. Don’t jump on him directly, but instead, offer a different viewpoint, perhaps your own, as opposed to quoted “so called” experts. If I may pay you a similar compliment, usually your opinion is far better than the one’s you quote. If someone says a house that was 900k will be 700k, instead of offering doom and gloom references, compile the facts in your head, come up with a number, and state it, not a shock value number but what you think, if it’s 550k or 450k, call it, and back it up as to why. Be careful not to generalize his market of the north coast, he knows his stuff, more than anyone I’ve met, he knows every tract, I’ve shared wine with him, he’s beat me in arguments going back a few years but only in his neighborhoods, so i don’t venture there anymore, you only get to be wrong so many times. You two can co-exist, it will take a fig leaf, you might have to agree with him when he earns it, but in the end, hundreds, if not thousands of people read these comments and I’ve read your stuff enough to know that is who you write for, so serve them. If you want to be one of the big boys, give some respect even when you don’t think you are getting it, because the rest of us will give it to you. humility pays off in spades.

We are entering winter, interest rates cannot hold too much longer, inflation is looming, buyers usually fade this time of year, something is going to change, soften your approach a little and more will listen, leave the door open to change because that door may be needed. I truly believe that if the mightly zip codes are going to fall, if convergence will happen, it will happen this winter and don’t you want to be around to collect the accolades.

My Taoist beliefs tell me that bamboo will survive a hurricane better than a sturdy oak, because of it’s felxibility. Swirl it around in your head and it will make sense. sdr, swords down, lets debate like gentlemen. Now about the paul newman reference, close but not nearly that good looking or charismatic. The lap is currenlty empty, it’s probably better that way, some people are best enjoyed misunderstood.

[temeculaguy]

Rt., I appreciate the compliments, but I am well aware I am beloved on the boards (I’m the third rail) so I hope you are not placating me to win your ongoing battle with sdrealtor. I meant what I said, you are highly intelligent and add value to conversations, I take some things away from your insight, as do others. Just let the battle with him go, you two are more similar than either of you want to believe. Don’t jump on him directly, but instead, offer a different viewpoint, perhaps your own, as opposed to quoted “so called” experts. If I may pay you a similar compliment, usually your opinion is far better than the one’s you quote. If someone says a house that was 900k will be 700k, instead of offering doom and gloom references, compile the facts in your head, come up with a number, and state it, not a shock value number but what you think, if it’s 550k or 450k, call it, and back it up as to why. Be careful not to generalize his market of the north coast, he knows his stuff, more than anyone I’ve met, he knows every tract, I’ve shared wine with him, he’s beat me in arguments going back a few years but only in his neighborhoods, so i don’t venture there anymore, you only get to be wrong so many times. You two can co-exist, it will take a fig leaf, you might have to agree with him when he earns it, but in the end, hundreds, if not thousands of people read these comments and I’ve read your stuff enough to know that is who you write for, so serve them. If you want to be one of the big boys, give some respect even when you don’t think you are getting it, because the rest of us will give it to you. humility pays off in spades.

We are entering winter, interest rates cannot hold too much longer, inflation is looming, buyers usually fade this time of year, something is going to change, soften your approach a little and more will listen, leave the door open to change because that door may be needed. I truly believe that if the mightly zip codes are going to fall, if convergence will happen, it will happen this winter and don’t you want to be around to collect the accolades.

My Taoist beliefs tell me that bamboo will survive a hurricane better than a sturdy oak, because of it’s felxibility. Swirl it around in your head and it will make sense. sdr, swords down, lets debate like gentlemen. Now about the paul newman reference, close but not nearly that good looking or charismatic. The lap is currenlty empty, it’s probably better that way, some people are best enjoyed misunderstood.

[temeculaguy]

Rt., I appreciate the compliments, but I am well aware I am beloved on the boards (I’m the third rail) so I hope you are not placating me to win your ongoing battle with sdrealtor. I meant what I said, you are highly intelligent and add value to conversations, I take some things away from your insight, as do others. Just let the battle with him go, you two are more similar than either of you want to believe. Don’t jump on him directly, but instead, offer a different viewpoint, perhaps your own, as opposed to quoted “so called” experts. If I may pay you a similar compliment, usually your opinion is far better than the one’s you quote. If someone says a house that was 900k will be 700k, instead of offering doom and gloom references, compile the facts in your head, come up with a number, and state it, not a shock value number but what you think, if it’s 550k or 450k, call it, and back it up as to why. Be careful not to generalize his market of the north coast, he knows his stuff, more than anyone I’ve met, he knows every tract, I’ve shared wine with him, he’s beat me in arguments going back a few years but only in his neighborhoods, so i don’t venture there anymore, you only get to be wrong so many times. You two can co-exist, it will take a fig leaf, you might have to agree with him when he earns it, but in the end, hundreds, if not thousands of people read these comments and I’ve read your stuff enough to know that is who you write for, so serve them. If you want to be one of the big boys, give some respect even when you don’t think you are getting it, because the rest of us will give it to you. humility pays off in spades.

We are entering winter, interest rates cannot hold too much longer, inflation is looming, buyers usually fade this time of year, something is going to change, soften your approach a little and more will listen, leave the door open to change because that door may be needed. I truly believe that if the mightly zip codes are going to fall, if convergence will happen, it will happen this winter and don’t you want to be around to collect the accolades.

My Taoist beliefs tell me that bamboo will survive a hurricane better than a sturdy oak, because of it’s felxibility. Swirl it around in your head and it will make sense. sdr, swords down, lets debate like gentlemen. Now about the paul newman reference, close but not nearly that good looking or charismatic. The lap is currenlty empty, it’s probably better that way, some people are best enjoyed misunderstood.

[Author]

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