The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Rt.66]TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.[/quote]

My intention was not to play referee, you two are not the only pair that always seem to always go at each other, sometimes, once it gets going it becomes more about proving the other person wrong than finding the truth.

He got a pass for a single reason, because he bested me once on this very issue and I’ve decided that I will wait and see because he brought a few facts that made me look at it a little differently. I don’t know if you were on that thread, nor can I find it because there have been hundred that were similar, but I will try to recap it.

In that thread, I took a pretty harsh stance that north county coastal and a few other select upper and mid upper markets were going to get their leg down, just a little later than everyone else. I still kinda believe it, but I struggle with it sometimes.

I coined the phrase “pain train” and it’s theory (but mostly I repackaged bug’s butterfly effect) and it has come true until those few markets and now it has stalled. It’s not working as scripted for a variety of reasons. I only want two more things out of this correction, I want a cash flowing rental and I want about a dozen of the good people here that I have come to care about, stuck in sticky markets, to get their half price peak house. I used to be convinced that both were coming but they started going the other way. The rentals I was stalking began getting overbid and the sticky markets dug in. sdr brings some of the explanations of why, plus he has pointed out things about some of those markets not rising as much during the boom and the limited amount of them and their demographics, so if it looks like Im giving him a pass, then it does. Do I think he is right and you are wrong, I don’t know. But he is making micromarket arguments and you are making macro market arguments and it’s painful to watch. If we were in person I would interupt, make statements to affirm what you agree on and then restate what you do not, back up and watch. If I may throw in a few tips, most of us here are disnefranchised regarding pay foreclousre websites and quoting anyone past roubini on the doom and gloom meter is lost on us, there are hundreds of tin foil hat people, they are too late to the party for crediblity, they say the same things over and over and they fall into the category of entertainment. To me they are the Art Bells of economics and only make sense when you are alone at two in the morning.

sdr, there were some jabs that weren’t neccesary, I know you like conflict sometimes and enjoy playing devils advocate, but shed the philly swagger a little just for the readers.

It’s not about winning or losing an argument.

/referee hat off

[sdrealtor]

Its the Jersey in me too;)

[sdrealtor]

Its the Jersey in me too;)

[sdrealtor]

Its the Jersey in me too;)

[sdrealtor]

Its the Jersey in me too;)

[sdrealtor]

Its the Jersey in me too;)

[Rt.66]

Well said again TG:

And then there is the fact the realtor could not be more wrong? He supports his side by making stuff up, plain and simple!

I knew all I needed to do was wait and the proof (as close as we can get) would come to me. So, so easy to prove the nasty fellow wrong.

As for his nasty name calling it’s a reflection on this entire forum that he still gets the respect he does. Add to that his obvious fabrications to pimp the market and glean victims from the forum and his ability to constantly get a pass really reduces my respect for some on this board, and I bet I’m not alone. So is it that people are afraid to engage him cause he’s nasty or is that people respect his fallacies…. oops I mean opinions?

Any source of actual numbers and data is immediately pooh-poohed by a select group of people on the forum. As if it’s their goal to marginalize our only sources of tangible truth. Admittedly nothing is going to be 100% accurate, but way more accurate than a realtor making a killing’s feelings and on the street views (which should actually be immediately thrown out)!

The link at bottom is a report on what I was arguing with the realtor, shadow inventory. It’s from a respected source so I’ll call their REVIEW of the accuracy of the data they collected and who they collected it from as trustworthy as we can hope for in this unprecedented foreclosure climate. When I say respected I am referring to the fact that in a market desperate for information many of the top news publications from around the country are quoting stats from this report as reliable data. So it’s this report versus the realtor’s opinion.

The funny thing is what it says about San Diego specifically, which is that it has the 2ND HIGHEST SHADOW INVENTORY as a percent of inventory versus homes available for sale/listings. Which is basically the complete opposite on the extreme scale compared to the realtor’s “beliefs”? Often the truth lies in the middle but in this case not even close.

You read that correctly, only Vegas beats SD in the number of cars on the pain train (copyright TG). Not Tampa and not Detroit or even Phoenix.

Lucky in OC posted some numbers from the FDIC that also fit nicely into this report and someone else brought up the subject of “cure rates” being foreboding for SD.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?

IN GOD WE TRUST. EVERYONE ELSE BRING DATA (realtors get a pass)

[Rt.66]

Well said again TG:

And then there is the fact the realtor could not be more wrong? He supports his side by making stuff up, plain and simple!

I knew all I needed to do was wait and the proof (as close as we can get) would come to me. So, so easy to prove the nasty fellow wrong.

As for his nasty name calling it’s a reflection on this entire forum that he still gets the respect he does. Add to that his obvious fabrications to pimp the market and glean victims from the forum and his ability to constantly get a pass really reduces my respect for some on this board, and I bet I’m not alone. So is it that people are afraid to engage him cause he’s nasty or is that people respect his fallacies…. oops I mean opinions?

Any source of actual numbers and data is immediately pooh-poohed by a select group of people on the forum. As if it’s their goal to marginalize our only sources of tangible truth. Admittedly nothing is going to be 100% accurate, but way more accurate than a realtor making a killing’s feelings and on the street views (which should actually be immediately thrown out)!

The link at bottom is a report on what I was arguing with the realtor, shadow inventory. It’s from a respected source so I’ll call their REVIEW of the accuracy of the data they collected and who they collected it from as trustworthy as we can hope for in this unprecedented foreclosure climate. When I say respected I am referring to the fact that in a market desperate for information many of the top news publications from around the country are quoting stats from this report as reliable data. So it’s this report versus the realtor’s opinion.

The funny thing is what it says about San Diego specifically, which is that it has the 2ND HIGHEST SHADOW INVENTORY as a percent of inventory versus homes available for sale/listings. Which is basically the complete opposite on the extreme scale compared to the realtor’s “beliefs”? Often the truth lies in the middle but in this case not even close.

You read that correctly, only Vegas beats SD in the number of cars on the pain train (copyright TG). Not Tampa and not Detroit or even Phoenix.

Lucky in OC posted some numbers from the FDIC that also fit nicely into this report and someone else brought up the subject of “cure rates” being foreboding for SD.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?

IN GOD WE TRUST. EVERYONE ELSE BRING DATA (realtors get a pass)

[Rt.66]

Well said again TG:

And then there is the fact the realtor could not be more wrong? He supports his side by making stuff up, plain and simple!

I knew all I needed to do was wait and the proof (as close as we can get) would come to me. So, so easy to prove the nasty fellow wrong.

As for his nasty name calling it’s a reflection on this entire forum that he still gets the respect he does. Add to that his obvious fabrications to pimp the market and glean victims from the forum and his ability to constantly get a pass really reduces my respect for some on this board, and I bet I’m not alone. So is it that people are afraid to engage him cause he’s nasty or is that people respect his fallacies…. oops I mean opinions?

Any source of actual numbers and data is immediately pooh-poohed by a select group of people on the forum. As if it’s their goal to marginalize our only sources of tangible truth. Admittedly nothing is going to be 100% accurate, but way more accurate than a realtor making a killing’s feelings and on the street views (which should actually be immediately thrown out)!

The link at bottom is a report on what I was arguing with the realtor, shadow inventory. It’s from a respected source so I’ll call their REVIEW of the accuracy of the data they collected and who they collected it from as trustworthy as we can hope for in this unprecedented foreclosure climate. When I say respected I am referring to the fact that in a market desperate for information many of the top news publications from around the country are quoting stats from this report as reliable data. So it’s this report versus the realtor’s opinion.

The funny thing is what it says about San Diego specifically, which is that it has the 2ND HIGHEST SHADOW INVENTORY as a percent of inventory versus homes available for sale/listings. Which is basically the complete opposite on the extreme scale compared to the realtor’s “beliefs”? Often the truth lies in the middle but in this case not even close.

You read that correctly, only Vegas beats SD in the number of cars on the pain train (copyright TG). Not Tampa and not Detroit or even Phoenix.

Lucky in OC posted some numbers from the FDIC that also fit nicely into this report and someone else brought up the subject of “cure rates” being foreboding for SD.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?

IN GOD WE TRUST. EVERYONE ELSE BRING DATA (realtors get a pass)

[Rt.66]

Well said again TG:

And then there is the fact the realtor could not be more wrong? He supports his side by making stuff up, plain and simple!

I knew all I needed to do was wait and the proof (as close as we can get) would come to me. So, so easy to prove the nasty fellow wrong.

As for his nasty name calling it’s a reflection on this entire forum that he still gets the respect he does. Add to that his obvious fabrications to pimp the market and glean victims from the forum and his ability to constantly get a pass really reduces my respect for some on this board, and I bet I’m not alone. So is it that people are afraid to engage him cause he’s nasty or is that people respect his fallacies…. oops I mean opinions?

Any source of actual numbers and data is immediately pooh-poohed by a select group of people on the forum. As if it’s their goal to marginalize our only sources of tangible truth. Admittedly nothing is going to be 100% accurate, but way more accurate than a realtor making a killing’s feelings and on the street views (which should actually be immediately thrown out)!

The link at bottom is a report on what I was arguing with the realtor, shadow inventory. It’s from a respected source so I’ll call their REVIEW of the accuracy of the data they collected and who they collected it from as trustworthy as we can hope for in this unprecedented foreclosure climate. When I say respected I am referring to the fact that in a market desperate for information many of the top news publications from around the country are quoting stats from this report as reliable data. So it’s this report versus the realtor’s opinion.

The funny thing is what it says about San Diego specifically, which is that it has the 2ND HIGHEST SHADOW INVENTORY as a percent of inventory versus homes available for sale/listings. Which is basically the complete opposite on the extreme scale compared to the realtor’s “beliefs”? Often the truth lies in the middle but in this case not even close.

You read that correctly, only Vegas beats SD in the number of cars on the pain train (copyright TG). Not Tampa and not Detroit or even Phoenix.

Lucky in OC posted some numbers from the FDIC that also fit nicely into this report and someone else brought up the subject of “cure rates” being foreboding for SD.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?

IN GOD WE TRUST. EVERYONE ELSE BRING DATA (realtors get a pass)

[Rt.66]

Well said again TG:

And then there is the fact the realtor could not be more wrong? He supports his side by making stuff up, plain and simple!

I knew all I needed to do was wait and the proof (as close as we can get) would come to me. So, so easy to prove the nasty fellow wrong.

As for his nasty name calling it’s a reflection on this entire forum that he still gets the respect he does. Add to that his obvious fabrications to pimp the market and glean victims from the forum and his ability to constantly get a pass really reduces my respect for some on this board, and I bet I’m not alone. So is it that people are afraid to engage him cause he’s nasty or is that people respect his fallacies…. oops I mean opinions?

Any source of actual numbers and data is immediately pooh-poohed by a select group of people on the forum. As if it’s their goal to marginalize our only sources of tangible truth. Admittedly nothing is going to be 100% accurate, but way more accurate than a realtor making a killing’s feelings and on the street views (which should actually be immediately thrown out)!

The link at bottom is a report on what I was arguing with the realtor, shadow inventory. It’s from a respected source so I’ll call their REVIEW of the accuracy of the data they collected and who they collected it from as trustworthy as we can hope for in this unprecedented foreclosure climate. When I say respected I am referring to the fact that in a market desperate for information many of the top news publications from around the country are quoting stats from this report as reliable data. So it’s this report versus the realtor’s opinion.

The funny thing is what it says about San Diego specifically, which is that it has the 2ND HIGHEST SHADOW INVENTORY as a percent of inventory versus homes available for sale/listings. Which is basically the complete opposite on the extreme scale compared to the realtor’s “beliefs”? Often the truth lies in the middle but in this case not even close.

You read that correctly, only Vegas beats SD in the number of cars on the pain train (copyright TG). Not Tampa and not Detroit or even Phoenix.

Lucky in OC posted some numbers from the FDIC that also fit nicely into this report and someone else brought up the subject of “cure rates” being foreboding for SD.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?

IN GOD WE TRUST. EVERYONE ELSE BRING DATA (realtors get a pass)

[Arraya]

[quote=Rt.66]

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%[/quote]

Actually, given the “cure” rate methodology, you could probably put total shadow inventory close to double that.

What banks are looking it, for survival purposes, is the number of mortgages upside down because of the huge default risk. With 250,000+ mortgages upside down in SD, they can’t have people walk en masse or they go out of business. If prices keep sliding, you could probably add another 50-75K of inventory to SD pretty quick.

So what the Fed must do is to save the banks is:

Keep inventory low
Keep interest rates low
Keep foreigners buying treasuries
Keep running a HUGE deficits
And most importantly, keep confidence high, which entails, keeping people in the dark

Problem, the life blood of our economy, credit, is still contracting. This WILL NOT AND CANNOT STOP for the foreseeable future. This is the driver of the contraction.

Something will snap eventually.

[Arraya]

[quote=Rt.66]

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%[/quote]

Actually, given the “cure” rate methodology, you could probably put total shadow inventory close to double that.

What banks are looking it, for survival purposes, is the number of mortgages upside down because of the huge default risk. With 250,000+ mortgages upside down in SD, they can’t have people walk en masse or they go out of business. If prices keep sliding, you could probably add another 50-75K of inventory to SD pretty quick.

So what the Fed must do is to save the banks is:

Keep inventory low
Keep interest rates low
Keep foreigners buying treasuries
Keep running a HUGE deficits
And most importantly, keep confidence high, which entails, keeping people in the dark

Problem, the life blood of our economy, credit, is still contracting. This WILL NOT AND CANNOT STOP for the foreseeable future. This is the driver of the contraction.

Something will snap eventually.

[Arraya]

[quote=Rt.66]

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%[/quote]

Actually, given the “cure” rate methodology, you could probably put total shadow inventory close to double that.

What banks are looking it, for survival purposes, is the number of mortgages upside down because of the huge default risk. With 250,000+ mortgages upside down in SD, they can’t have people walk en masse or they go out of business. If prices keep sliding, you could probably add another 50-75K of inventory to SD pretty quick.

So what the Fed must do is to save the banks is:

Keep inventory low
Keep interest rates low
Keep foreigners buying treasuries
Keep running a HUGE deficits
And most importantly, keep confidence high, which entails, keeping people in the dark

Problem, the life blood of our economy, credit, is still contracting. This WILL NOT AND CANNOT STOP for the foreseeable future. This is the driver of the contraction.

Something will snap eventually.

[Arraya]

[quote=Rt.66]

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%[/quote]

Actually, given the “cure” rate methodology, you could probably put total shadow inventory close to double that.

What banks are looking it, for survival purposes, is the number of mortgages upside down because of the huge default risk. With 250,000+ mortgages upside down in SD, they can’t have people walk en masse or they go out of business. If prices keep sliding, you could probably add another 50-75K of inventory to SD pretty quick.

So what the Fed must do is to save the banks is:

Keep inventory low
Keep interest rates low
Keep foreigners buying treasuries
Keep running a HUGE deficits
And most importantly, keep confidence high, which entails, keeping people in the dark

Problem, the life blood of our economy, credit, is still contracting. This WILL NOT AND CANNOT STOP for the foreseeable future. This is the driver of the contraction.

Something will snap eventually.

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