The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[temeculaguy]

It’s the same article rehashed by a different reporter, nice headline, but I want the date.

The first guy they interviewed said this

“There’s going to be a flood [of bank-owned homes] listed for sale at some point,”

Great!!! And at some point I will die, someone will win the lottery, someone gets to sleep with beyonce. That does nothing for me, I want to know who and when, if it’s me, then I can use that info.

At least the B of A person they interviewed said this “We are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running”

That person didn’t say 7 million, they said spike, but at least they gave me a when, On December 31st, I’ll reset this thread, if it doesn’t happen by then, it’s bigfoot.

Still no info on where they got the 7 million number, I can’t dispute it or believe it because none of these article say where it comes from or how it was determined.

The quoted experts from both articles is a 15 year old company that sells mortgage backed securities.

http://www.amherstsecurities.com/index.html

I could not find anything on their website regarding how they gathered the info for the obvious press release that they sent out. Since when is an mbs dealer the new authority to debunk case and schiller, something stinks in denmark.

[sdrealtor]

I dont think they are any easier now than 6 months ago there are just more of them. Discretionary selelrs have left the building for the most part. A ton of short sales got listed in the Winter and many are closing now. They are the market in many ZIPs. New short sale listings have dried up a bit but I expect an outpouring of love coming my way in the next 6 months again. There are just too many folks out there without equity hanging on by a thread. The economy will continue conspiring to push many over the edge. I’m hoping/expecting 2 more years of this party.

[sdrealtor]

I dont think they are any easier now than 6 months ago there are just more of them. Discretionary selelrs have left the building for the most part. A ton of short sales got listed in the Winter and many are closing now. They are the market in many ZIPs. New short sale listings have dried up a bit but I expect an outpouring of love coming my way in the next 6 months again. There are just too many folks out there without equity hanging on by a thread. The economy will continue conspiring to push many over the edge. I’m hoping/expecting 2 more years of this party.

[sdrealtor]

I dont think they are any easier now than 6 months ago there are just more of them. Discretionary selelrs have left the building for the most part. A ton of short sales got listed in the Winter and many are closing now. They are the market in many ZIPs. New short sale listings have dried up a bit but I expect an outpouring of love coming my way in the next 6 months again. There are just too many folks out there without equity hanging on by a thread. The economy will continue conspiring to push many over the edge. I’m hoping/expecting 2 more years of this party.

[sdrealtor]

I dont think they are any easier now than 6 months ago there are just more of them. Discretionary selelrs have left the building for the most part. A ton of short sales got listed in the Winter and many are closing now. They are the market in many ZIPs. New short sale listings have dried up a bit but I expect an outpouring of love coming my way in the next 6 months again. There are just too many folks out there without equity hanging on by a thread. The economy will continue conspiring to push many over the edge. I’m hoping/expecting 2 more years of this party.

[sdrealtor]

I dont think they are any easier now than 6 months ago there are just more of them. Discretionary selelrs have left the building for the most part. A ton of short sales got listed in the Winter and many are closing now. They are the market in many ZIPs. New short sale listings have dried up a bit but I expect an outpouring of love coming my way in the next 6 months again. There are just too many folks out there without equity hanging on by a thread. The economy will continue conspiring to push many over the edge. I’m hoping/expecting 2 more years of this party.

[Arraya]

All data is wrong. It’s just a matter of how much.

15-20 million homes underwater. How many strategic walkers stashing there mortgage payment away, waiting? 10%, 20%, 30%

With over 6 million job losses over the past 12 months. How many homeowners in this group that are sitting in their home not paying? I’d say over a million at least.

I think residential is like 9 percent delinquent which is probably 8-9 million mortgages.

The vast majority of metropolitan areas prices are still decreasing.

You know the number is going to be high and 7 million is probably in the ball park.

Job losses are still flowing.

[Arraya]

All data is wrong. It’s just a matter of how much.

15-20 million homes underwater. How many strategic walkers stashing there mortgage payment away, waiting? 10%, 20%, 30%

With over 6 million job losses over the past 12 months. How many homeowners in this group that are sitting in their home not paying? I’d say over a million at least.

I think residential is like 9 percent delinquent which is probably 8-9 million mortgages.

The vast majority of metropolitan areas prices are still decreasing.

You know the number is going to be high and 7 million is probably in the ball park.

Job losses are still flowing.

[Arraya]

All data is wrong. It’s just a matter of how much.

15-20 million homes underwater. How many strategic walkers stashing there mortgage payment away, waiting? 10%, 20%, 30%

With over 6 million job losses over the past 12 months. How many homeowners in this group that are sitting in their home not paying? I’d say over a million at least.

I think residential is like 9 percent delinquent which is probably 8-9 million mortgages.

The vast majority of metropolitan areas prices are still decreasing.

You know the number is going to be high and 7 million is probably in the ball park.

Job losses are still flowing.

[Arraya]

All data is wrong. It’s just a matter of how much.

15-20 million homes underwater. How many strategic walkers stashing there mortgage payment away, waiting? 10%, 20%, 30%

With over 6 million job losses over the past 12 months. How many homeowners in this group that are sitting in their home not paying? I’d say over a million at least.

I think residential is like 9 percent delinquent which is probably 8-9 million mortgages.

The vast majority of metropolitan areas prices are still decreasing.

You know the number is going to be high and 7 million is probably in the ball park.

Job losses are still flowing.

[Arraya]

All data is wrong. It’s just a matter of how much.

15-20 million homes underwater. How many strategic walkers stashing there mortgage payment away, waiting? 10%, 20%, 30%

With over 6 million job losses over the past 12 months. How many homeowners in this group that are sitting in their home not paying? I’d say over a million at least.

I think residential is like 9 percent delinquent which is probably 8-9 million mortgages.

The vast majority of metropolitan areas prices are still decreasing.

You know the number is going to be high and 7 million is probably in the ball park.

Job losses are still flowing.

[socrattt]

Arraya in the perfect scenario prices will continue to drop, but I must say our government is becoming very good on the supply side of control. I am on the east coast for a month in search of RE investments and funny enough they are few and far between.

I have been to trustee auctions from Florida to the Northeast and if you think the banks are taking less than the failed mortgage amount you are mistaken. Banks are playing into the same game as the FED (maybe because they have no choice). Florida is a scary place right now. The condo associations will probably start filing BK in the boat loads as many are just walking away). SFHs in places like Florida are still way over priced and have a lot of room to drop.

It doesn’t matter how much inventory the banks hold, how many more there are to come and where unemployment is because the banks are obviously in no need to unload inventory or by FED standards are unable to. I truly believe our government has a much bigger plan than any of us can imagine. Even if there were 3-4 million in the shadow inventory on the horizon there has to be a plan to create some sort of income whether it is moving the units or renting them. My guess is the plan to rent is a huge possibility. Property taxes and HOA’s that remain the responsibility of the banks will create an ever bigger problem if banks continue to be on the hook for these.

I predict 2010 will be one of the most interesting times in regards to real estate in the history of this country. You can only play the same game for so long before one side loses!!!

[socrattt]

Arraya in the perfect scenario prices will continue to drop, but I must say our government is becoming very good on the supply side of control. I am on the east coast for a month in search of RE investments and funny enough they are few and far between.

I have been to trustee auctions from Florida to the Northeast and if you think the banks are taking less than the failed mortgage amount you are mistaken. Banks are playing into the same game as the FED (maybe because they have no choice). Florida is a scary place right now. The condo associations will probably start filing BK in the boat loads as many are just walking away). SFHs in places like Florida are still way over priced and have a lot of room to drop.

It doesn’t matter how much inventory the banks hold, how many more there are to come and where unemployment is because the banks are obviously in no need to unload inventory or by FED standards are unable to. I truly believe our government has a much bigger plan than any of us can imagine. Even if there were 3-4 million in the shadow inventory on the horizon there has to be a plan to create some sort of income whether it is moving the units or renting them. My guess is the plan to rent is a huge possibility. Property taxes and HOA’s that remain the responsibility of the banks will create an ever bigger problem if banks continue to be on the hook for these.

I predict 2010 will be one of the most interesting times in regards to real estate in the history of this country. You can only play the same game for so long before one side loses!!!

[socrattt]

Arraya in the perfect scenario prices will continue to drop, but I must say our government is becoming very good on the supply side of control. I am on the east coast for a month in search of RE investments and funny enough they are few and far between.

I have been to trustee auctions from Florida to the Northeast and if you think the banks are taking less than the failed mortgage amount you are mistaken. Banks are playing into the same game as the FED (maybe because they have no choice). Florida is a scary place right now. The condo associations will probably start filing BK in the boat loads as many are just walking away). SFHs in places like Florida are still way over priced and have a lot of room to drop.

It doesn’t matter how much inventory the banks hold, how many more there are to come and where unemployment is because the banks are obviously in no need to unload inventory or by FED standards are unable to. I truly believe our government has a much bigger plan than any of us can imagine. Even if there were 3-4 million in the shadow inventory on the horizon there has to be a plan to create some sort of income whether it is moving the units or renting them. My guess is the plan to rent is a huge possibility. Property taxes and HOA’s that remain the responsibility of the banks will create an ever bigger problem if banks continue to be on the hook for these.

I predict 2010 will be one of the most interesting times in regards to real estate in the history of this country. You can only play the same game for so long before one side loses!!!

[socrattt]

Arraya in the perfect scenario prices will continue to drop, but I must say our government is becoming very good on the supply side of control. I am on the east coast for a month in search of RE investments and funny enough they are few and far between.

I have been to trustee auctions from Florida to the Northeast and if you think the banks are taking less than the failed mortgage amount you are mistaken. Banks are playing into the same game as the FED (maybe because they have no choice). Florida is a scary place right now. The condo associations will probably start filing BK in the boat loads as many are just walking away). SFHs in places like Florida are still way over priced and have a lot of room to drop.

It doesn’t matter how much inventory the banks hold, how many more there are to come and where unemployment is because the banks are obviously in no need to unload inventory or by FED standards are unable to. I truly believe our government has a much bigger plan than any of us can imagine. Even if there were 3-4 million in the shadow inventory on the horizon there has to be a plan to create some sort of income whether it is moving the units or renting them. My guess is the plan to rent is a huge possibility. Property taxes and HOA’s that remain the responsibility of the banks will create an ever bigger problem if banks continue to be on the hook for these.

I predict 2010 will be one of the most interesting times in regards to real estate in the history of this country. You can only play the same game for so long before one side loses!!!

[Author]

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