The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sd_matt]

I make the regular drive around 92115, 91941 and 91942. It seems there are more properties for sale than are on Realtor.com.

I’m seeing a few properties that were for sale six months to a year ago still for sale but not online.

Just my two cents. Wait and see I guess.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.

[jpinpb]

I have to say that the name calling is childish and detracts from any valid arguments. Why stoop and resort to that level? Seems rather aggro.

[jpinpb]

I have to say that the name calling is childish and detracts from any valid arguments. Why stoop and resort to that level? Seems rather aggro.

[jpinpb]

I have to say that the name calling is childish and detracts from any valid arguments. Why stoop and resort to that level? Seems rather aggro.

[jpinpb]

I have to say that the name calling is childish and detracts from any valid arguments. Why stoop and resort to that level? Seems rather aggro.

[jpinpb]

I have to say that the name calling is childish and detracts from any valid arguments. Why stoop and resort to that level? Seems rather aggro.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Rt.66]TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.[/quote]

My intention was not to play referee, you two are not the only pair that always seem to always go at each other, sometimes, once it gets going it becomes more about proving the other person wrong than finding the truth.

He got a pass for a single reason, because he bested me once on this very issue and I’ve decided that I will wait and see because he brought a few facts that made me look at it a little differently. I don’t know if you were on that thread, nor can I find it because there have been hundred that were similar, but I will try to recap it.

In that thread, I took a pretty harsh stance that north county coastal and a few other select upper and mid upper markets were going to get their leg down, just a little later than everyone else. I still kinda believe it, but I struggle with it sometimes.

I coined the phrase “pain train” and it’s theory (but mostly I repackaged bug’s butterfly effect) and it has come true until those few markets and now it has stalled. It’s not working as scripted for a variety of reasons. I only want two more things out of this correction, I want a cash flowing rental and I want about a dozen of the good people here that I have come to care about, stuck in sticky markets, to get their half price peak house. I used to be convinced that both were coming but they started going the other way. The rentals I was stalking began getting overbid and the sticky markets dug in. sdr brings some of the explanations of why, plus he has pointed out things about some of those markets not rising as much during the boom and the limited amount of them and their demographics, so if it looks like Im giving him a pass, then it does. Do I think he is right and you are wrong, I don’t know. But he is making micromarket arguments and you are making macro market arguments and it’s painful to watch. If we were in person I would interupt, make statements to affirm what you agree on and then restate what you do not, back up and watch. If I may throw in a few tips, most of us here are disnefranchised regarding pay foreclousre websites and quoting anyone past roubini on the doom and gloom meter is lost on us, there are hundreds of tin foil hat people, they are too late to the party for crediblity, they say the same things over and over and they fall into the category of entertainment. To me they are the Art Bells of economics and only make sense when you are alone at two in the morning.

sdr, there were some jabs that weren’t neccesary, I know you like conflict sometimes and enjoy playing devils advocate, but shed the philly swagger a little just for the readers.

It’s not about winning or losing an argument.

/referee hat off

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Rt.66]TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.[/quote]

My intention was not to play referee, you two are not the only pair that always seem to always go at each other, sometimes, once it gets going it becomes more about proving the other person wrong than finding the truth.

He got a pass for a single reason, because he bested me once on this very issue and I’ve decided that I will wait and see because he brought a few facts that made me look at it a little differently. I don’t know if you were on that thread, nor can I find it because there have been hundred that were similar, but I will try to recap it.

In that thread, I took a pretty harsh stance that north county coastal and a few other select upper and mid upper markets were going to get their leg down, just a little later than everyone else. I still kinda believe it, but I struggle with it sometimes.

I coined the phrase “pain train” and it’s theory (but mostly I repackaged bug’s butterfly effect) and it has come true until those few markets and now it has stalled. It’s not working as scripted for a variety of reasons. I only want two more things out of this correction, I want a cash flowing rental and I want about a dozen of the good people here that I have come to care about, stuck in sticky markets, to get their half price peak house. I used to be convinced that both were coming but they started going the other way. The rentals I was stalking began getting overbid and the sticky markets dug in. sdr brings some of the explanations of why, plus he has pointed out things about some of those markets not rising as much during the boom and the limited amount of them and their demographics, so if it looks like Im giving him a pass, then it does. Do I think he is right and you are wrong, I don’t know. But he is making micromarket arguments and you are making macro market arguments and it’s painful to watch. If we were in person I would interupt, make statements to affirm what you agree on and then restate what you do not, back up and watch. If I may throw in a few tips, most of us here are disnefranchised regarding pay foreclousre websites and quoting anyone past roubini on the doom and gloom meter is lost on us, there are hundreds of tin foil hat people, they are too late to the party for crediblity, they say the same things over and over and they fall into the category of entertainment. To me they are the Art Bells of economics and only make sense when you are alone at two in the morning.

sdr, there were some jabs that weren’t neccesary, I know you like conflict sometimes and enjoy playing devils advocate, but shed the philly swagger a little just for the readers.

It’s not about winning or losing an argument.

/referee hat off

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Rt.66]TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.[/quote]

My intention was not to play referee, you two are not the only pair that always seem to always go at each other, sometimes, once it gets going it becomes more about proving the other person wrong than finding the truth.

He got a pass for a single reason, because he bested me once on this very issue and I’ve decided that I will wait and see because he brought a few facts that made me look at it a little differently. I don’t know if you were on that thread, nor can I find it because there have been hundred that were similar, but I will try to recap it.

In that thread, I took a pretty harsh stance that north county coastal and a few other select upper and mid upper markets were going to get their leg down, just a little later than everyone else. I still kinda believe it, but I struggle with it sometimes.

I coined the phrase “pain train” and it’s theory (but mostly I repackaged bug’s butterfly effect) and it has come true until those few markets and now it has stalled. It’s not working as scripted for a variety of reasons. I only want two more things out of this correction, I want a cash flowing rental and I want about a dozen of the good people here that I have come to care about, stuck in sticky markets, to get their half price peak house. I used to be convinced that both were coming but they started going the other way. The rentals I was stalking began getting overbid and the sticky markets dug in. sdr brings some of the explanations of why, plus he has pointed out things about some of those markets not rising as much during the boom and the limited amount of them and their demographics, so if it looks like Im giving him a pass, then it does. Do I think he is right and you are wrong, I don’t know. But he is making micromarket arguments and you are making macro market arguments and it’s painful to watch. If we were in person I would interupt, make statements to affirm what you agree on and then restate what you do not, back up and watch. If I may throw in a few tips, most of us here are disnefranchised regarding pay foreclousre websites and quoting anyone past roubini on the doom and gloom meter is lost on us, there are hundreds of tin foil hat people, they are too late to the party for crediblity, they say the same things over and over and they fall into the category of entertainment. To me they are the Art Bells of economics and only make sense when you are alone at two in the morning.

sdr, there were some jabs that weren’t neccesary, I know you like conflict sometimes and enjoy playing devils advocate, but shed the philly swagger a little just for the readers.

It’s not about winning or losing an argument.

/referee hat off

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Rt.66]TemeculaGuy, Your post did not enrage me at all. It was sensible and eloquent as always.

So well written even I enjoyed reading about my issues:) I did notice the realtor got a pass though, even with the name calling. I’ve been known to drop some insulting bombs of course but his level of childish name calling I would have thought would get some attention. Not unusual for people to rush to the aid of someone who supports their side, but I expected more of an enjoyable read covering both sides from you.

I would have thought you would have looked at the data and sided with me on a significant next leg down for SD mid to upper market.[/quote]

My intention was not to play referee, you two are not the only pair that always seem to always go at each other, sometimes, once it gets going it becomes more about proving the other person wrong than finding the truth.

He got a pass for a single reason, because he bested me once on this very issue and I’ve decided that I will wait and see because he brought a few facts that made me look at it a little differently. I don’t know if you were on that thread, nor can I find it because there have been hundred that were similar, but I will try to recap it.

In that thread, I took a pretty harsh stance that north county coastal and a few other select upper and mid upper markets were going to get their leg down, just a little later than everyone else. I still kinda believe it, but I struggle with it sometimes.

I coined the phrase “pain train” and it’s theory (but mostly I repackaged bug’s butterfly effect) and it has come true until those few markets and now it has stalled. It’s not working as scripted for a variety of reasons. I only want two more things out of this correction, I want a cash flowing rental and I want about a dozen of the good people here that I have come to care about, stuck in sticky markets, to get their half price peak house. I used to be convinced that both were coming but they started going the other way. The rentals I was stalking began getting overbid and the sticky markets dug in. sdr brings some of the explanations of why, plus he has pointed out things about some of those markets not rising as much during the boom and the limited amount of them and their demographics, so if it looks like Im giving him a pass, then it does. Do I think he is right and you are wrong, I don’t know. But he is making micromarket arguments and you are making macro market arguments and it’s painful to watch. If we were in person I would interupt, make statements to affirm what you agree on and then restate what you do not, back up and watch. If I may throw in a few tips, most of us here are disnefranchised regarding pay foreclousre websites and quoting anyone past roubini on the doom and gloom meter is lost on us, there are hundreds of tin foil hat people, they are too late to the party for crediblity, they say the same things over and over and they fall into the category of entertainment. To me they are the Art Bells of economics and only make sense when you are alone at two in the morning.

sdr, there were some jabs that weren’t neccesary, I know you like conflict sometimes and enjoy playing devils advocate, but shed the philly swagger a little just for the readers.

It’s not about winning or losing an argument.

/referee hat off

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