The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are like one of those media outlets pulling sound bites and clearly no understanding of economics. There are many variables out there and each have their impact. Limited supply acts to create stability and/or upward pressure on prices. Other variables such as distress properties, valuations in excess of fundamentals, credit contraction etc have the opposite effect. Both forces are present and there is absolutely no contradcition in pointing out the various forces at work. I look at both sides and you only look at one. That is your failing. I measure each against the other and you cry the sky is falling look at all the bad news.

Please explain to me where your brilliant perspective was gleaned from. Do you have any real education, skill or experience to draw from?[/quote]

From bull to bear to schizophrenic…. dude you are a riot.

I bring data and you bring opinions and confusion; you can’t decide whether to argue your point or mine.

What sort of education do I need to dual with a realtor? Do you even need a high school diploma to get your realtor card?

This forum has been castrated by posters like you and the faithful that come to your aid. I can’t believe a “making a killing”, flip-flopping, pump monkey realtor is getting such a pass.

[sdrealtor]

Bearish from day 1 here to today but still a realist willing to look at everything. You’re obviously uneducated and bring nothing but cut and pasted articles. I havent seen one iota of meaningful analysis from you. I’ll put my CPA, my two master degrees, my 20 years years of corporate sales and marketing experience against your HS diploma any time. I dont need anyone to come to my aid. My track record of top notch predictions is well documented on this board over 3 years. I have gone out on a limb many times and have been spot on. Its all here in b&w if you would take the time to go back and check it.

[sdrealtor]

Bearish from day 1 here to today but still a realist willing to look at everything. You’re obviously uneducated and bring nothing but cut and pasted articles. I havent seen one iota of meaningful analysis from you. I’ll put my CPA, my two master degrees, my 20 years years of corporate sales and marketing experience against your HS diploma any time. I dont need anyone to come to my aid. My track record of top notch predictions is well documented on this board over 3 years. I have gone out on a limb many times and have been spot on. Its all here in b&w if you would take the time to go back and check it.

[sdrealtor]

Bearish from day 1 here to today but still a realist willing to look at everything. You’re obviously uneducated and bring nothing but cut and pasted articles. I havent seen one iota of meaningful analysis from you. I’ll put my CPA, my two master degrees, my 20 years years of corporate sales and marketing experience against your HS diploma any time. I dont need anyone to come to my aid. My track record of top notch predictions is well documented on this board over 3 years. I have gone out on a limb many times and have been spot on. Its all here in b&w if you would take the time to go back and check it.

[sdrealtor]

Bearish from day 1 here to today but still a realist willing to look at everything. You’re obviously uneducated and bring nothing but cut and pasted articles. I havent seen one iota of meaningful analysis from you. I’ll put my CPA, my two master degrees, my 20 years years of corporate sales and marketing experience against your HS diploma any time. I dont need anyone to come to my aid. My track record of top notch predictions is well documented on this board over 3 years. I have gone out on a limb many times and have been spot on. Its all here in b&w if you would take the time to go back and check it.

[sdrealtor]

Bearish from day 1 here to today but still a realist willing to look at everything. You’re obviously uneducated and bring nothing but cut and pasted articles. I havent seen one iota of meaningful analysis from you. I’ll put my CPA, my two master degrees, my 20 years years of corporate sales and marketing experience against your HS diploma any time. I dont need anyone to come to my aid. My track record of top notch predictions is well documented on this board over 3 years. I have gone out on a limb many times and have been spot on. Its all here in b&w if you would take the time to go back and check it.

[desmond]

SDR has morphed into:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf69EEL3WBk

This seems to happen on this board, remember the “Gold Guy” I forget his name but he lost it and disappeared , now it seems SDR is going down the same path.

[desmond]

SDR has morphed into:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf69EEL3WBk

This seems to happen on this board, remember the “Gold Guy” I forget his name but he lost it and disappeared , now it seems SDR is going down the same path.

[desmond]

SDR has morphed into:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf69EEL3WBk

This seems to happen on this board, remember the “Gold Guy” I forget his name but he lost it and disappeared , now it seems SDR is going down the same path.

[desmond]

SDR has morphed into:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf69EEL3WBk

This seems to happen on this board, remember the “Gold Guy” I forget his name but he lost it and disappeared , now it seems SDR is going down the same path.

[desmond]

SDR has morphed into:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf69EEL3WBk

This seems to happen on this board, remember the “Gold Guy” I forget his name but he lost it and disappeared , now it seems SDR is going down the same path.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

From the other thread today…….

[quote=sdrealtor]“ NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale. [/quote]

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines equals 10% to 30%. So by your estimations your $550k sale may be now looking at a $165k loss instead of $110k? You do know this is real money to the people you sell houses to?

Just trying to keep up with the flips and flops. LOL

Beleive??? You should have taken at least one spelling course along your lauded educational history.

I never said I only have a HS diploma education. I do not need to make pathetic qualifications to support my points.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

From the other thread today…….

[quote=sdrealtor]“ NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale. [/quote]

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines equals 10% to 30%. So by your estimations your $550k sale may be now looking at a $165k loss instead of $110k? You do know this is real money to the people you sell houses to?

Just trying to keep up with the flips and flops. LOL

Beleive??? You should have taken at least one spelling course along your lauded educational history.

I never said I only have a HS diploma education. I do not need to make pathetic qualifications to support my points.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

From the other thread today…….

[quote=sdrealtor]“ NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale. [/quote]

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines equals 10% to 30%. So by your estimations your $550k sale may be now looking at a $165k loss instead of $110k? You do know this is real money to the people you sell houses to?

Just trying to keep up with the flips and flops. LOL

Beleive??? You should have taken at least one spelling course along your lauded educational history.

I never said I only have a HS diploma education. I do not need to make pathetic qualifications to support my points.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

From the other thread today…….

[quote=sdrealtor]“ NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale. [/quote]

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines equals 10% to 30%. So by your estimations your $550k sale may be now looking at a $165k loss instead of $110k? You do know this is real money to the people you sell houses to?

Just trying to keep up with the flips and flops. LOL

Beleive??? You should have taken at least one spelling course along your lauded educational history.

I never said I only have a HS diploma education. I do not need to make pathetic qualifications to support my points.

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