The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[Arraya]

I think stealth is anything that is not listed and going back to the bank OR foreclosed and not listed.

[sdrealtor]

You are like one of those media outlets pulling sound bites and clearly no understanding of economics. There are many variables out there and each have their impact. Limited supply acts to create stability and/or upward pressure on prices. Other variables such as distress properties, valuations in excess of fundamentals, credit contraction etc have the opposite effect. Both forces are present and there is absolutely no contradcition in pointing out the various forces at work. I look at both sides and you only look at one. That is your failing. I measure each against the other and you cry the sky is falling look at all the bad news.

Please explain to me where your brilliant perspective was gleaned from. Do you have any real education, skill or experience to draw from?

[sdrealtor]

You are like one of those media outlets pulling sound bites and clearly no understanding of economics. There are many variables out there and each have their impact. Limited supply acts to create stability and/or upward pressure on prices. Other variables such as distress properties, valuations in excess of fundamentals, credit contraction etc have the opposite effect. Both forces are present and there is absolutely no contradcition in pointing out the various forces at work. I look at both sides and you only look at one. That is your failing. I measure each against the other and you cry the sky is falling look at all the bad news.

Please explain to me where your brilliant perspective was gleaned from. Do you have any real education, skill or experience to draw from?

[sdrealtor]

You are like one of those media outlets pulling sound bites and clearly no understanding of economics. There are many variables out there and each have their impact. Limited supply acts to create stability and/or upward pressure on prices. Other variables such as distress properties, valuations in excess of fundamentals, credit contraction etc have the opposite effect. Both forces are present and there is absolutely no contradcition in pointing out the various forces at work. I look at both sides and you only look at one. That is your failing. I measure each against the other and you cry the sky is falling look at all the bad news.

Please explain to me where your brilliant perspective was gleaned from. Do you have any real education, skill or experience to draw from?

[sdrealtor]

You are like one of those media outlets pulling sound bites and clearly no understanding of economics. There are many variables out there and each have their impact. Limited supply acts to create stability and/or upward pressure on prices. Other variables such as distress properties, valuations in excess of fundamentals, credit contraction etc have the opposite effect. Both forces are present and there is absolutely no contradcition in pointing out the various forces at work. I look at both sides and you only look at one. That is your failing. I measure each against the other and you cry the sky is falling look at all the bad news.

Please explain to me where your brilliant perspective was gleaned from. Do you have any real education, skill or experience to draw from?

[sdrealtor]

You are like one of those media outlets pulling sound bites and clearly no understanding of economics. There are many variables out there and each have their impact. Limited supply acts to create stability and/or upward pressure on prices. Other variables such as distress properties, valuations in excess of fundamentals, credit contraction etc have the opposite effect. Both forces are present and there is absolutely no contradcition in pointing out the various forces at work. I look at both sides and you only look at one. That is your failing. I measure each against the other and you cry the sky is falling look at all the bad news.

Please explain to me where your brilliant perspective was gleaned from. Do you have any real education, skill or experience to draw from?

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=jpinpb]Not to go back to the stealth/shadow argument, but my friends made the decision to stop paying many months before they listed. That was their intention once they saw they couldn’t flip. So they stopped paying long before they listed for short sale. So, I understand once it’s listed, it’s active and not stealth, but they never got a NOD in the preceding months (3-5) of listing while they were not paying. So technically stealth, no? And so of course calls me to question how many other similar scenarios are out there.

In any case, clearly the government is doing everything possible to prop the market up. And so the questions is can they continue until we surpassed peak prices and people can flip again? I mean, you know, even w/inflation and wage inflation, it will be quite a doozy to see places jump up to 2006 prices again. I would think that would take a little while, not overnight.

So in the interim, many will still be upside down.[/quote]

I don’t think the Gov will be in the game of prop up once they see things are flowing (economy and all) and I don’t think that will necessarily mean homes must be at peak prices. Or even that close. Sure there will be people under water for the next 5/6 years, but I don’t think the Gov will be in the game that long.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=jpinpb]Not to go back to the stealth/shadow argument, but my friends made the decision to stop paying many months before they listed. That was their intention once they saw they couldn’t flip. So they stopped paying long before they listed for short sale. So, I understand once it’s listed, it’s active and not stealth, but they never got a NOD in the preceding months (3-5) of listing while they were not paying. So technically stealth, no? And so of course calls me to question how many other similar scenarios are out there.

In any case, clearly the government is doing everything possible to prop the market up. And so the questions is can they continue until we surpassed peak prices and people can flip again? I mean, you know, even w/inflation and wage inflation, it will be quite a doozy to see places jump up to 2006 prices again. I would think that would take a little while, not overnight.

So in the interim, many will still be upside down.[/quote]

I don’t think the Gov will be in the game of prop up once they see things are flowing (economy and all) and I don’t think that will necessarily mean homes must be at peak prices. Or even that close. Sure there will be people under water for the next 5/6 years, but I don’t think the Gov will be in the game that long.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=jpinpb]Not to go back to the stealth/shadow argument, but my friends made the decision to stop paying many months before they listed. That was their intention once they saw they couldn’t flip. So they stopped paying long before they listed for short sale. So, I understand once it’s listed, it’s active and not stealth, but they never got a NOD in the preceding months (3-5) of listing while they were not paying. So technically stealth, no? And so of course calls me to question how many other similar scenarios are out there.

In any case, clearly the government is doing everything possible to prop the market up. And so the questions is can they continue until we surpassed peak prices and people can flip again? I mean, you know, even w/inflation and wage inflation, it will be quite a doozy to see places jump up to 2006 prices again. I would think that would take a little while, not overnight.

So in the interim, many will still be upside down.[/quote]

I don’t think the Gov will be in the game of prop up once they see things are flowing (economy and all) and I don’t think that will necessarily mean homes must be at peak prices. Or even that close. Sure there will be people under water for the next 5/6 years, but I don’t think the Gov will be in the game that long.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=jpinpb]Not to go back to the stealth/shadow argument, but my friends made the decision to stop paying many months before they listed. That was their intention once they saw they couldn’t flip. So they stopped paying long before they listed for short sale. So, I understand once it’s listed, it’s active and not stealth, but they never got a NOD in the preceding months (3-5) of listing while they were not paying. So technically stealth, no? And so of course calls me to question how many other similar scenarios are out there.

In any case, clearly the government is doing everything possible to prop the market up. And so the questions is can they continue until we surpassed peak prices and people can flip again? I mean, you know, even w/inflation and wage inflation, it will be quite a doozy to see places jump up to 2006 prices again. I would think that would take a little while, not overnight.

So in the interim, many will still be upside down.[/quote]

I don’t think the Gov will be in the game of prop up once they see things are flowing (economy and all) and I don’t think that will necessarily mean homes must be at peak prices. Or even that close. Sure there will be people under water for the next 5/6 years, but I don’t think the Gov will be in the game that long.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=jpinpb]Not to go back to the stealth/shadow argument, but my friends made the decision to stop paying many months before they listed. That was their intention once they saw they couldn’t flip. So they stopped paying long before they listed for short sale. So, I understand once it’s listed, it’s active and not stealth, but they never got a NOD in the preceding months (3-5) of listing while they were not paying. So technically stealth, no? And so of course calls me to question how many other similar scenarios are out there.

In any case, clearly the government is doing everything possible to prop the market up. And so the questions is can they continue until we surpassed peak prices and people can flip again? I mean, you know, even w/inflation and wage inflation, it will be quite a doozy to see places jump up to 2006 prices again. I would think that would take a little while, not overnight.

So in the interim, many will still be upside down.[/quote]

I don’t think the Gov will be in the game of prop up once they see things are flowing (economy and all) and I don’t think that will necessarily mean homes must be at peak prices. Or even that close. Sure there will be people under water for the next 5/6 years, but I don’t think the Gov will be in the game that long.

[sdrealtor]

JP,
Yes they were stealth and then became active inventory. I think there is a good deal of stealth inventory out there just not as much as others. Even more so, I think most of the stealth will get digested systematically and slowly. This is not the simple matter so many would like it to be. While mid/high end markets in SoCal have more work ahead things have stabilized in other parts of the country. I am constantly amazed by the number of people I see sitting on the sidelines with lots of cash.

The real issue is not whether there is stealth inventory out there but rather whether there will be a huge dump of it on the market. There is always stealth inventory out there that will come on the market if certain conditions occur. If they continue to manage its as well as they have the market will slog along very differently than if there is a dump of it on the market. The major collapse in pricing is incumbent upon that dump coming. If it does not come the disposition of these upside assets can be far more orderly.

[sdrealtor]

JP,
Yes they were stealth and then became active inventory. I think there is a good deal of stealth inventory out there just not as much as others. Even more so, I think most of the stealth will get digested systematically and slowly. This is not the simple matter so many would like it to be. While mid/high end markets in SoCal have more work ahead things have stabilized in other parts of the country. I am constantly amazed by the number of people I see sitting on the sidelines with lots of cash.

The real issue is not whether there is stealth inventory out there but rather whether there will be a huge dump of it on the market. There is always stealth inventory out there that will come on the market if certain conditions occur. If they continue to manage its as well as they have the market will slog along very differently than if there is a dump of it on the market. The major collapse in pricing is incumbent upon that dump coming. If it does not come the disposition of these upside assets can be far more orderly.

[sdrealtor]

JP,
Yes they were stealth and then became active inventory. I think there is a good deal of stealth inventory out there just not as much as others. Even more so, I think most of the stealth will get digested systematically and slowly. This is not the simple matter so many would like it to be. While mid/high end markets in SoCal have more work ahead things have stabilized in other parts of the country. I am constantly amazed by the number of people I see sitting on the sidelines with lots of cash.

The real issue is not whether there is stealth inventory out there but rather whether there will be a huge dump of it on the market. There is always stealth inventory out there that will come on the market if certain conditions occur. If they continue to manage its as well as they have the market will slog along very differently than if there is a dump of it on the market. The major collapse in pricing is incumbent upon that dump coming. If it does not come the disposition of these upside assets can be far more orderly.

[sdrealtor]

JP,
Yes they were stealth and then became active inventory. I think there is a good deal of stealth inventory out there just not as much as others. Even more so, I think most of the stealth will get digested systematically and slowly. This is not the simple matter so many would like it to be. While mid/high end markets in SoCal have more work ahead things have stabilized in other parts of the country. I am constantly amazed by the number of people I see sitting on the sidelines with lots of cash.

The real issue is not whether there is stealth inventory out there but rather whether there will be a huge dump of it on the market. There is always stealth inventory out there that will come on the market if certain conditions occur. If they continue to manage its as well as they have the market will slog along very differently than if there is a dump of it on the market. The major collapse in pricing is incumbent upon that dump coming. If it does not come the disposition of these upside assets can be far more orderly.

[Author]

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