The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdrealtor]

Cut and paste….cut and paste. Cant debate someone who wont listen. There isnt a single regular realtor on this board who has ever predicted the market was recovering (although one year ago I did accurately predict the Spring Rally and increasing prices -albeit temporary one-in selected markets). You can go back over 3+ years of my posts and will see my predictions have never deviated, never changed not one iota. ABout 30% down from the peak for prime NCC neighborhoods is what I called for and I still stand by it. We are about 2/3rd’s of the way there already.

[sdrealtor]

JP
Your friends werent shadow or stealth inventory they were active inventory. Their house was on the market in the MLS and nothing was hidden about it. There is a good chance the lender never filed an NOD because they had a Short Sale in process and expected it to go through.

[sdrealtor]

JP
Your friends werent shadow or stealth inventory they were active inventory. Their house was on the market in the MLS and nothing was hidden about it. There is a good chance the lender never filed an NOD because they had a Short Sale in process and expected it to go through.

[sdrealtor]

JP
Your friends werent shadow or stealth inventory they were active inventory. Their house was on the market in the MLS and nothing was hidden about it. There is a good chance the lender never filed an NOD because they had a Short Sale in process and expected it to go through.

[sdrealtor]

JP
Your friends werent shadow or stealth inventory they were active inventory. Their house was on the market in the MLS and nothing was hidden about it. There is a good chance the lender never filed an NOD because they had a Short Sale in process and expected it to go through.

[sdrealtor]

JP
Your friends werent shadow or stealth inventory they were active inventory. Their house was on the market in the MLS and nothing was hidden about it. There is a good chance the lender never filed an NOD because they had a Short Sale in process and expected it to go through.

[sdrealtor]

I would say a 30% diffence between RT and RealQuest speaks for itself regarding the veracity of the data.

[sdrealtor]

I would say a 30% diffence between RT and RealQuest speaks for itself regarding the veracity of the data.

[sdrealtor]

I would say a 30% diffence between RT and RealQuest speaks for itself regarding the veracity of the data.

[sdrealtor]

I would say a 30% diffence between RT and RealQuest speaks for itself regarding the veracity of the data.

[sdrealtor]

I would say a 30% diffence between RT and RealQuest speaks for itself regarding the veracity of the data.

[Arraya]

Methodology for the 7 million in shadow inventory.

San Diego’s delinquency rates are higher than the national average.

Modifications are showing a 50%+ re-default.

I wonder what percentage of delinquent try to Mod?

http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&PostId=89586

Adding fuel to the fire, the Amherst Securities Group released a report estimating that there’s a shadow inventory of 7 million homes that are either in foreclosure or destined to default. Amherst analyzed how often borrowers who miss one, two, or three payments on their mortgage are likely to recover, or eventually lose possession of their home. More often than not, borrowers who miss a payment on their home wind up losing it.

The “cure rate” for borrowers who are 90 or more days delinquent, for instance, is less than 1 percent. For borrowers who have missed two payments, it’s only 4.4 percent. And only 26.5 percent of borrowers who miss a single monthly payment eventually recover. The 7 million homes likely to reach foreclosure based on this analysis represent an additional 16 months of existing-home supply at current sales rates.

San Diego Numbers

And the number of defaults isn’t shrinking. Of the borrowers in San Diego County holding subprime loans, 38.31 percent were at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments as of the end of June, about the same as the delinquency level in March, according to First American CoreLogic.

But the category above subprime known as Alt-A — the higher-risk loans for good-credit borrowers — saw defaults increase between March and June. In that category, 27.18 percent of the borrowers were at least 60 days delinquent by the end of June, up from 25.41 percent in March.

And more prime borrowers are at least 60 days behind — 7.04 percent in June compared to 5.99 percent in March

So there is a logical way to get future inventory for SD.

“Cure rate” * # delinquent= Future inventory

Shadow is what does not show up in real inventory.

[Arraya]

Methodology for the 7 million in shadow inventory.

San Diego’s delinquency rates are higher than the national average.

Modifications are showing a 50%+ re-default.

I wonder what percentage of delinquent try to Mod?

http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&PostId=89586

Adding fuel to the fire, the Amherst Securities Group released a report estimating that there’s a shadow inventory of 7 million homes that are either in foreclosure or destined to default. Amherst analyzed how often borrowers who miss one, two, or three payments on their mortgage are likely to recover, or eventually lose possession of their home. More often than not, borrowers who miss a payment on their home wind up losing it.

The “cure rate” for borrowers who are 90 or more days delinquent, for instance, is less than 1 percent. For borrowers who have missed two payments, it’s only 4.4 percent. And only 26.5 percent of borrowers who miss a single monthly payment eventually recover. The 7 million homes likely to reach foreclosure based on this analysis represent an additional 16 months of existing-home supply at current sales rates.

San Diego Numbers

And the number of defaults isn’t shrinking. Of the borrowers in San Diego County holding subprime loans, 38.31 percent were at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments as of the end of June, about the same as the delinquency level in March, according to First American CoreLogic.

But the category above subprime known as Alt-A — the higher-risk loans for good-credit borrowers — saw defaults increase between March and June. In that category, 27.18 percent of the borrowers were at least 60 days delinquent by the end of June, up from 25.41 percent in March.

And more prime borrowers are at least 60 days behind — 7.04 percent in June compared to 5.99 percent in March

So there is a logical way to get future inventory for SD.

“Cure rate” * # delinquent= Future inventory

Shadow is what does not show up in real inventory.

[Arraya]

Methodology for the 7 million in shadow inventory.

San Diego’s delinquency rates are higher than the national average.

Modifications are showing a 50%+ re-default.

I wonder what percentage of delinquent try to Mod?

http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&PostId=89586

Adding fuel to the fire, the Amherst Securities Group released a report estimating that there’s a shadow inventory of 7 million homes that are either in foreclosure or destined to default. Amherst analyzed how often borrowers who miss one, two, or three payments on their mortgage are likely to recover, or eventually lose possession of their home. More often than not, borrowers who miss a payment on their home wind up losing it.

The “cure rate” for borrowers who are 90 or more days delinquent, for instance, is less than 1 percent. For borrowers who have missed two payments, it’s only 4.4 percent. And only 26.5 percent of borrowers who miss a single monthly payment eventually recover. The 7 million homes likely to reach foreclosure based on this analysis represent an additional 16 months of existing-home supply at current sales rates.

San Diego Numbers

And the number of defaults isn’t shrinking. Of the borrowers in San Diego County holding subprime loans, 38.31 percent were at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments as of the end of June, about the same as the delinquency level in March, according to First American CoreLogic.

But the category above subprime known as Alt-A — the higher-risk loans for good-credit borrowers — saw defaults increase between March and June. In that category, 27.18 percent of the borrowers were at least 60 days delinquent by the end of June, up from 25.41 percent in March.

And more prime borrowers are at least 60 days behind — 7.04 percent in June compared to 5.99 percent in March

So there is a logical way to get future inventory for SD.

“Cure rate” * # delinquent= Future inventory

Shadow is what does not show up in real inventory.

[Arraya]

Methodology for the 7 million in shadow inventory.

San Diego’s delinquency rates are higher than the national average.

Modifications are showing a 50%+ re-default.

I wonder what percentage of delinquent try to Mod?

http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&PostId=89586

Adding fuel to the fire, the Amherst Securities Group released a report estimating that there’s a shadow inventory of 7 million homes that are either in foreclosure or destined to default. Amherst analyzed how often borrowers who miss one, two, or three payments on their mortgage are likely to recover, or eventually lose possession of their home. More often than not, borrowers who miss a payment on their home wind up losing it.

The “cure rate” for borrowers who are 90 or more days delinquent, for instance, is less than 1 percent. For borrowers who have missed two payments, it’s only 4.4 percent. And only 26.5 percent of borrowers who miss a single monthly payment eventually recover. The 7 million homes likely to reach foreclosure based on this analysis represent an additional 16 months of existing-home supply at current sales rates.

San Diego Numbers

And the number of defaults isn’t shrinking. Of the borrowers in San Diego County holding subprime loans, 38.31 percent were at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments as of the end of June, about the same as the delinquency level in March, according to First American CoreLogic.

But the category above subprime known as Alt-A — the higher-risk loans for good-credit borrowers — saw defaults increase between March and June. In that category, 27.18 percent of the borrowers were at least 60 days delinquent by the end of June, up from 25.41 percent in March.

And more prime borrowers are at least 60 days behind — 7.04 percent in June compared to 5.99 percent in March

So there is a logical way to get future inventory for SD.

“Cure rate” * # delinquent= Future inventory

Shadow is what does not show up in real inventory.

[Author]

Posts