The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[temeculaguy]

I never said Schiff wasn’t correct with some of his predictions, and that video is a collection of his correct ones. Obviously they chose not to include his incorrect predictions, the ones that lost people money. Actually I am better than him, I’ve never been wrong in any of my predictions, but I’ve only made a few, six stocks and a zip code housing bottom, that is the grand total. TG vs schiff, I am not in this industry and my record can pound the crap out of him prediction wise, so what does that tell you.

Schiff was right on some things, he told you where to put your money instead and he was wrong, not just his greatest hits clips, but his actual advice about decoupling would have lost you money or made you very little. Roubini and Shiller still have a higher batting average for predictions. I am not the only one who thinks Schiff is not nostradamus, take a poll, calling a kettle black doesn’t make me Ben Stein, Bueller…anyone….Bueller?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong/

http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-ticker/2009/01/26/peter-schiff-right-on-the-crisis-wrong-on-investing.html

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8468.html

here’s his dow 2000 and nasdaq 500 prediction

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/05/11/peter-schiff-was-wrong-about-everything-for-a-long-time/?icid=sphere_wsj_teaser

I can go on and on, when you place a few hundred bets at the racetrack, you will be right and you will be wrong, but you are not given vince lombardi status for being right half of the time.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank. [/quote]

So this client is ensured the bank will take his offer and not decide to foreclose? I had a short sale offer at the bank and the house went to foreclosure eventually anyway. That happens a lot.

[quote=sdrealtor]The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump! [/quote]

That’s easy, I see this often. Loan mod attempts (lip service), BKs, moratoriums and things like that cause auctions to get canceled, rescheduled, canceled, rinse-repeat. RT got the auction posting but not the cancel/reschedule yet. I’ve also seen them just disappear after once being listed as auction, only to pop back up in 3 months. I’ve seen them listed as auction then disappear and become REOs without ever showing on RT again. The ones I’ve followed all ended up foreclosed eventually.

[quote=sdrealtor]These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also. [/quote]

I said the houses on RT are shadow OR foreclosure inventory AND that both are bad for RE values going forward. I never suggested they were 100% correct all the time either, rather I said the numbers were horid even with mistakes. You still have not answered….do you disagree that RT also does not report some houses it should? Or are the list errors all one way?

I’ll give you two out of your 5 speculative examples. You have a long way to go to eliminating 50% of the 13,202 on RT. And then you still need to get started on pooh-poohing the 10,237 that RealQuest shows.

RealQuest in case you forgot is:
• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source
http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/defa…

[quote=sdrealtor]Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont. [/quote]

So your speculation is what we should believe over actual data? Oh I forgot you’re a highly trained realtor (near zero training, education or knowledge required). I don’t believe TV but I also look at anything a realtor says with skepticism. I’ll take Dr. Housing Bubble’s research and the data I can actually search out over your opinions any day. The Dr. says the shadow is bigger than most believe while you say it’s a fraction of what most believe. I say it’s awful if its only 50% of what’s reported and you still argue with me.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.[/quote]

I can’t believe people are giving you a pass on your flip-flop. I guess you are another of the anointed on this forum huh?

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

Above is a bullish statement and I disagreed and the result was this debate. Over the course of the debate your position morphed to:

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

I guess that means you changed your mind, at least to a degree.

I hope the people buying $550k houses from you were not hanging their hats on your “the worst is over” call when they lose the 20% ($110,000.00) from the “second leg down” call. Just tell them it’s not contradictory.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank. [/quote]

So this client is ensured the bank will take his offer and not decide to foreclose? I had a short sale offer at the bank and the house went to foreclosure eventually anyway. That happens a lot.

[quote=sdrealtor]The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump! [/quote]

That’s easy, I see this often. Loan mod attempts (lip service), BKs, moratoriums and things like that cause auctions to get canceled, rescheduled, canceled, rinse-repeat. RT got the auction posting but not the cancel/reschedule yet. I’ve also seen them just disappear after once being listed as auction, only to pop back up in 3 months. I’ve seen them listed as auction then disappear and become REOs without ever showing on RT again. The ones I’ve followed all ended up foreclosed eventually.

[quote=sdrealtor]These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also. [/quote]

I said the houses on RT are shadow OR foreclosure inventory AND that both are bad for RE values going forward. I never suggested they were 100% correct all the time either, rather I said the numbers were horid even with mistakes. You still have not answered….do you disagree that RT also does not report some houses it should? Or are the list errors all one way?

I’ll give you two out of your 5 speculative examples. You have a long way to go to eliminating 50% of the 13,202 on RT. And then you still need to get started on pooh-poohing the 10,237 that RealQuest shows.

RealQuest in case you forgot is:
• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source
http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/defa…

[quote=sdrealtor]Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont. [/quote]

So your speculation is what we should believe over actual data? Oh I forgot you’re a highly trained realtor (near zero training, education or knowledge required). I don’t believe TV but I also look at anything a realtor says with skepticism. I’ll take Dr. Housing Bubble’s research and the data I can actually search out over your opinions any day. The Dr. says the shadow is bigger than most believe while you say it’s a fraction of what most believe. I say it’s awful if its only 50% of what’s reported and you still argue with me.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.[/quote]

I can’t believe people are giving you a pass on your flip-flop. I guess you are another of the anointed on this forum huh?

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

Above is a bullish statement and I disagreed and the result was this debate. Over the course of the debate your position morphed to:

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

I guess that means you changed your mind, at least to a degree.

I hope the people buying $550k houses from you were not hanging their hats on your “the worst is over” call when they lose the 20% ($110,000.00) from the “second leg down” call. Just tell them it’s not contradictory.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank. [/quote]

So this client is ensured the bank will take his offer and not decide to foreclose? I had a short sale offer at the bank and the house went to foreclosure eventually anyway. That happens a lot.

[quote=sdrealtor]The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump! [/quote]

That’s easy, I see this often. Loan mod attempts (lip service), BKs, moratoriums and things like that cause auctions to get canceled, rescheduled, canceled, rinse-repeat. RT got the auction posting but not the cancel/reschedule yet. I’ve also seen them just disappear after once being listed as auction, only to pop back up in 3 months. I’ve seen them listed as auction then disappear and become REOs without ever showing on RT again. The ones I’ve followed all ended up foreclosed eventually.

[quote=sdrealtor]These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also. [/quote]

I said the houses on RT are shadow OR foreclosure inventory AND that both are bad for RE values going forward. I never suggested they were 100% correct all the time either, rather I said the numbers were horid even with mistakes. You still have not answered….do you disagree that RT also does not report some houses it should? Or are the list errors all one way?

I’ll give you two out of your 5 speculative examples. You have a long way to go to eliminating 50% of the 13,202 on RT. And then you still need to get started on pooh-poohing the 10,237 that RealQuest shows.

RealQuest in case you forgot is:
• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source
http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/defa…

[quote=sdrealtor]Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont. [/quote]

So your speculation is what we should believe over actual data? Oh I forgot you’re a highly trained realtor (near zero training, education or knowledge required). I don’t believe TV but I also look at anything a realtor says with skepticism. I’ll take Dr. Housing Bubble’s research and the data I can actually search out over your opinions any day. The Dr. says the shadow is bigger than most believe while you say it’s a fraction of what most believe. I say it’s awful if its only 50% of what’s reported and you still argue with me.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.[/quote]

I can’t believe people are giving you a pass on your flip-flop. I guess you are another of the anointed on this forum huh?

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

Above is a bullish statement and I disagreed and the result was this debate. Over the course of the debate your position morphed to:

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

I guess that means you changed your mind, at least to a degree.

I hope the people buying $550k houses from you were not hanging their hats on your “the worst is over” call when they lose the 20% ($110,000.00) from the “second leg down” call. Just tell them it’s not contradictory.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank. [/quote]

So this client is ensured the bank will take his offer and not decide to foreclose? I had a short sale offer at the bank and the house went to foreclosure eventually anyway. That happens a lot.

[quote=sdrealtor]The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump! [/quote]

That’s easy, I see this often. Loan mod attempts (lip service), BKs, moratoriums and things like that cause auctions to get canceled, rescheduled, canceled, rinse-repeat. RT got the auction posting but not the cancel/reschedule yet. I’ve also seen them just disappear after once being listed as auction, only to pop back up in 3 months. I’ve seen them listed as auction then disappear and become REOs without ever showing on RT again. The ones I’ve followed all ended up foreclosed eventually.

[quote=sdrealtor]These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also. [/quote]

I said the houses on RT are shadow OR foreclosure inventory AND that both are bad for RE values going forward. I never suggested they were 100% correct all the time either, rather I said the numbers were horid even with mistakes. You still have not answered….do you disagree that RT also does not report some houses it should? Or are the list errors all one way?

I’ll give you two out of your 5 speculative examples. You have a long way to go to eliminating 50% of the 13,202 on RT. And then you still need to get started on pooh-poohing the 10,237 that RealQuest shows.

RealQuest in case you forgot is:
• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source
http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/defa…

[quote=sdrealtor]Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont. [/quote]

So your speculation is what we should believe over actual data? Oh I forgot you’re a highly trained realtor (near zero training, education or knowledge required). I don’t believe TV but I also look at anything a realtor says with skepticism. I’ll take Dr. Housing Bubble’s research and the data I can actually search out over your opinions any day. The Dr. says the shadow is bigger than most believe while you say it’s a fraction of what most believe. I say it’s awful if its only 50% of what’s reported and you still argue with me.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.[/quote]

I can’t believe people are giving you a pass on your flip-flop. I guess you are another of the anointed on this forum huh?

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

Above is a bullish statement and I disagreed and the result was this debate. Over the course of the debate your position morphed to:

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

I guess that means you changed your mind, at least to a degree.

I hope the people buying $550k houses from you were not hanging their hats on your “the worst is over” call when they lose the 20% ($110,000.00) from the “second leg down” call. Just tell them it’s not contradictory.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank. [/quote]

So this client is ensured the bank will take his offer and not decide to foreclose? I had a short sale offer at the bank and the house went to foreclosure eventually anyway. That happens a lot.

[quote=sdrealtor]The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump! [/quote]

That’s easy, I see this often. Loan mod attempts (lip service), BKs, moratoriums and things like that cause auctions to get canceled, rescheduled, canceled, rinse-repeat. RT got the auction posting but not the cancel/reschedule yet. I’ve also seen them just disappear after once being listed as auction, only to pop back up in 3 months. I’ve seen them listed as auction then disappear and become REOs without ever showing on RT again. The ones I’ve followed all ended up foreclosed eventually.

[quote=sdrealtor]These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also. [/quote]

I said the houses on RT are shadow OR foreclosure inventory AND that both are bad for RE values going forward. I never suggested they were 100% correct all the time either, rather I said the numbers were horid even with mistakes. You still have not answered….do you disagree that RT also does not report some houses it should? Or are the list errors all one way?

I’ll give you two out of your 5 speculative examples. You have a long way to go to eliminating 50% of the 13,202 on RT. And then you still need to get started on pooh-poohing the 10,237 that RealQuest shows.

RealQuest in case you forgot is:
• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source
http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/defa…

[quote=sdrealtor]Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont. [/quote]

So your speculation is what we should believe over actual data? Oh I forgot you’re a highly trained realtor (near zero training, education or knowledge required). I don’t believe TV but I also look at anything a realtor says with skepticism. I’ll take Dr. Housing Bubble’s research and the data I can actually search out over your opinions any day. The Dr. says the shadow is bigger than most believe while you say it’s a fraction of what most believe. I say it’s awful if its only 50% of what’s reported and you still argue with me.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.[/quote]

I can’t believe people are giving you a pass on your flip-flop. I guess you are another of the anointed on this forum huh?

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.). The worst has come and gone already. [/quote]

Above is a bullish statement and I disagreed and the result was this debate. Over the course of the debate your position morphed to:

[quote=sdrealtor]“ absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now.” [/quote]

I guess that means you changed your mind, at least to a degree.

I hope the people buying $550k houses from you were not hanging their hats on your “the worst is over” call when they lose the 20% ($110,000.00) from the “second leg down” call. Just tell them it’s not contradictory.

[Rt.66]

More data showing the worst is far from over in the economy at least if you think employment and consumer debt levels matter. Think that will effect re values?

Employment: You’re SMOKING Green “Shoots”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1486-Employment-Youre-SMOKING-Green-Shoots.html

[Rt.66]

More data showing the worst is far from over in the economy at least if you think employment and consumer debt levels matter. Think that will effect re values?

Employment: You’re SMOKING Green “Shoots”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1486-Employment-Youre-SMOKING-Green-Shoots.html

[Rt.66]

More data showing the worst is far from over in the economy at least if you think employment and consumer debt levels matter. Think that will effect re values?

Employment: You’re SMOKING Green “Shoots”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1486-Employment-Youre-SMOKING-Green-Shoots.html

[Rt.66]

More data showing the worst is far from over in the economy at least if you think employment and consumer debt levels matter. Think that will effect re values?

Employment: You’re SMOKING Green “Shoots”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1486-Employment-Youre-SMOKING-Green-Shoots.html

[Rt.66]

More data showing the worst is far from over in the economy at least if you think employment and consumer debt levels matter. Think that will effect re values?

Employment: You’re SMOKING Green “Shoots”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1486-Employment-Youre-SMOKING-Green-Shoots.html

[Rt.66]

Its a good thing we have realtors to rely on when it comes to the direction of the market, otherwise we’d have to look at sources like the Washington Post.

A Look Ahead To the Great Resetting

About 10 percent of all mortgages in this country are scheduled to adjust in the next few years, with the numbers peaking in mid- to late 2011, according to First American CoreLogic. Those loans are worth about $1 trillion, and nearly 20 percent of the borrowers who have them are already seriously behind on their monthly payments…………..

The most vulnerable borrowers will be those with “option” ARMs, which tend to be concentrated in places, like California, where home prices soared then plunged precipitously.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/01/AR2009100105443.html?referrer=emailarticle&ref=patrick.net

It’s all fun and games when you can “pick-a-pay” your way to a nice affordable payment, but when they want all that stuff like principal and full interest somebody always gets hurt.

[Rt.66]

Its a good thing we have realtors to rely on when it comes to the direction of the market, otherwise we’d have to look at sources like the Washington Post.

A Look Ahead To the Great Resetting

About 10 percent of all mortgages in this country are scheduled to adjust in the next few years, with the numbers peaking in mid- to late 2011, according to First American CoreLogic. Those loans are worth about $1 trillion, and nearly 20 percent of the borrowers who have them are already seriously behind on their monthly payments…………..

The most vulnerable borrowers will be those with “option” ARMs, which tend to be concentrated in places, like California, where home prices soared then plunged precipitously.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/01/AR2009100105443.html?referrer=emailarticle&ref=patrick.net

It’s all fun and games when you can “pick-a-pay” your way to a nice affordable payment, but when they want all that stuff like principal and full interest somebody always gets hurt.

[Rt.66]

Its a good thing we have realtors to rely on when it comes to the direction of the market, otherwise we’d have to look at sources like the Washington Post.

A Look Ahead To the Great Resetting

About 10 percent of all mortgages in this country are scheduled to adjust in the next few years, with the numbers peaking in mid- to late 2011, according to First American CoreLogic. Those loans are worth about $1 trillion, and nearly 20 percent of the borrowers who have them are already seriously behind on their monthly payments…………..

The most vulnerable borrowers will be those with “option” ARMs, which tend to be concentrated in places, like California, where home prices soared then plunged precipitously.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/01/AR2009100105443.html?referrer=emailarticle&ref=patrick.net

It’s all fun and games when you can “pick-a-pay” your way to a nice affordable payment, but when they want all that stuff like principal and full interest somebody always gets hurt.

[Rt.66]

Its a good thing we have realtors to rely on when it comes to the direction of the market, otherwise we’d have to look at sources like the Washington Post.

A Look Ahead To the Great Resetting

About 10 percent of all mortgages in this country are scheduled to adjust in the next few years, with the numbers peaking in mid- to late 2011, according to First American CoreLogic. Those loans are worth about $1 trillion, and nearly 20 percent of the borrowers who have them are already seriously behind on their monthly payments…………..

The most vulnerable borrowers will be those with “option” ARMs, which tend to be concentrated in places, like California, where home prices soared then plunged precipitously.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/01/AR2009100105443.html?referrer=emailarticle&ref=patrick.net

It’s all fun and games when you can “pick-a-pay” your way to a nice affordable payment, but when they want all that stuff like principal and full interest somebody always gets hurt.

[Author]

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