The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdrealtor]

Thats cool Allan. Good luck with it!

The idea that the high end move down market will replace some of the move up market is something I never thought about before. Understandably its small in comparison to the size of the potential move up market but interesting nonetheless.

Thanx TG. Looks like the court jester disappeared with his tail between his legs once proven wrong.

[Rt.66]

My bad SDRealtor, you are correct RT does show default amount but not loan balance or address, owners name, etc. I still think you made up the ones you mentioned or at least cherry picked them but since you do not described them, I can’t verify anything.

SDRealtor said:
[quote]3. I dont not have RealtyTrac account. I can go on for free and with my MLS tools and local knowledge, I can identify the properties I referenced. RealtyTrac is a POS. [/quote]

TG, you will notice he did not mention those other cross reference sources you did. He said he can do it with MLS tools.

If there have been ten foreclosures of the same model home on a given street during the past 18 months and RT shows 4 what “MLS tools” will tell you with 100% certainty if the ones currently listed on RT are NOT different than ones that were at one time listed but are no longer on RT, when you don’t know the loan amount, street address, parcel number or owner name?

I have found discrepancies with RT and said so several times. But I know they exist on both sides of our debate. Do you think there are houses in your hood that are in default or full blown REOs that do NOT show on RT? I know in the areas I follow there are.

The debate is whether or not RT has merit to the direction of SD RE values. I said that even if you cut their numbers in half, it would be an unmitigated disaster. You have argued the point so the burden to show that more than 50% of RT foreclosures are false is needed.

No matter your sources you won’t even come close to discounting 50% and you know it. Not even 25%.

Here is what you said SDRealtor:

[quote]FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right. [/quote]

To play your game and I’ll speculate too:
The auctions that are closed sales… sometimes the closed sale is the bank taking it back (Sold to the bank, I’ve seen that) and RT simply has mis-reported the change. The one that is auction not listed on MLS seems to be the definition of shadow inventory. The auction ones in short sale mean nothing other than the bank has filed docs and is ready to foreclose if the short sale does not suit them. The auction you claim is loan mod, who says it’s a loan mod, the embarrassed home owner? The last one, the preforeclosure not listed on MLS which you claim is a short sale, again a so called short sale that the bank is getting its foreclosure ducks lined up (NOD filed) on is not odd at all.

I can’t see that any of your conjecture on those properties removes them from the shadow inventory or foreclosure inventory at all, let alone with a high level of certainty.

I’ll say that my explanation above is speculative (like yours), but my argument with you is not based on my speculation or yours, but rather the horrid numbers coming out of ALL sources of actual data.

I have said before I do not claim RT is 100% accurate and I’ll concede you can find some of the properties by cross reference, but the numbers are horrible, some REOs are not reported and even a fraction of the numbers reported is a total disaster.

Then there is the DATA I posted from RealQuest which you refuse to acknowledge. Then there is a mountain of other data showing a really bad environment for RE. One minute you make “the bottom is in” type statements and the next that you say you expect “a next leg down”.

“The worst has come and gone already” (your words) and “I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming” (your words). How do you debate someone like you?

[Rt.66]

My bad SDRealtor, you are correct RT does show default amount but not loan balance or address, owners name, etc. I still think you made up the ones you mentioned or at least cherry picked them but since you do not described them, I can’t verify anything.

SDRealtor said:
[quote]3. I dont not have RealtyTrac account. I can go on for free and with my MLS tools and local knowledge, I can identify the properties I referenced. RealtyTrac is a POS. [/quote]

TG, you will notice he did not mention those other cross reference sources you did. He said he can do it with MLS tools.

If there have been ten foreclosures of the same model home on a given street during the past 18 months and RT shows 4 what “MLS tools” will tell you with 100% certainty if the ones currently listed on RT are NOT different than ones that were at one time listed but are no longer on RT, when you don’t know the loan amount, street address, parcel number or owner name?

I have found discrepancies with RT and said so several times. But I know they exist on both sides of our debate. Do you think there are houses in your hood that are in default or full blown REOs that do NOT show on RT? I know in the areas I follow there are.

The debate is whether or not RT has merit to the direction of SD RE values. I said that even if you cut their numbers in half, it would be an unmitigated disaster. You have argued the point so the burden to show that more than 50% of RT foreclosures are false is needed.

No matter your sources you won’t even come close to discounting 50% and you know it. Not even 25%.

Here is what you said SDRealtor:

[quote]FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right. [/quote]

To play your game and I’ll speculate too:
The auctions that are closed sales… sometimes the closed sale is the bank taking it back (Sold to the bank, I’ve seen that) and RT simply has mis-reported the change. The one that is auction not listed on MLS seems to be the definition of shadow inventory. The auction ones in short sale mean nothing other than the bank has filed docs and is ready to foreclose if the short sale does not suit them. The auction you claim is loan mod, who says it’s a loan mod, the embarrassed home owner? The last one, the preforeclosure not listed on MLS which you claim is a short sale, again a so called short sale that the bank is getting its foreclosure ducks lined up (NOD filed) on is not odd at all.

I can’t see that any of your conjecture on those properties removes them from the shadow inventory or foreclosure inventory at all, let alone with a high level of certainty.

I’ll say that my explanation above is speculative (like yours), but my argument with you is not based on my speculation or yours, but rather the horrid numbers coming out of ALL sources of actual data.

I have said before I do not claim RT is 100% accurate and I’ll concede you can find some of the properties by cross reference, but the numbers are horrible, some REOs are not reported and even a fraction of the numbers reported is a total disaster.

Then there is the DATA I posted from RealQuest which you refuse to acknowledge. Then there is a mountain of other data showing a really bad environment for RE. One minute you make “the bottom is in” type statements and the next that you say you expect “a next leg down”.

“The worst has come and gone already” (your words) and “I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming” (your words). How do you debate someone like you?

[Rt.66]

My bad SDRealtor, you are correct RT does show default amount but not loan balance or address, owners name, etc. I still think you made up the ones you mentioned or at least cherry picked them but since you do not described them, I can’t verify anything.

SDRealtor said:
[quote]3. I dont not have RealtyTrac account. I can go on for free and with my MLS tools and local knowledge, I can identify the properties I referenced. RealtyTrac is a POS. [/quote]

TG, you will notice he did not mention those other cross reference sources you did. He said he can do it with MLS tools.

If there have been ten foreclosures of the same model home on a given street during the past 18 months and RT shows 4 what “MLS tools” will tell you with 100% certainty if the ones currently listed on RT are NOT different than ones that were at one time listed but are no longer on RT, when you don’t know the loan amount, street address, parcel number or owner name?

I have found discrepancies with RT and said so several times. But I know they exist on both sides of our debate. Do you think there are houses in your hood that are in default or full blown REOs that do NOT show on RT? I know in the areas I follow there are.

The debate is whether or not RT has merit to the direction of SD RE values. I said that even if you cut their numbers in half, it would be an unmitigated disaster. You have argued the point so the burden to show that more than 50% of RT foreclosures are false is needed.

No matter your sources you won’t even come close to discounting 50% and you know it. Not even 25%.

Here is what you said SDRealtor:

[quote]FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right. [/quote]

To play your game and I’ll speculate too:
The auctions that are closed sales… sometimes the closed sale is the bank taking it back (Sold to the bank, I’ve seen that) and RT simply has mis-reported the change. The one that is auction not listed on MLS seems to be the definition of shadow inventory. The auction ones in short sale mean nothing other than the bank has filed docs and is ready to foreclose if the short sale does not suit them. The auction you claim is loan mod, who says it’s a loan mod, the embarrassed home owner? The last one, the preforeclosure not listed on MLS which you claim is a short sale, again a so called short sale that the bank is getting its foreclosure ducks lined up (NOD filed) on is not odd at all.

I can’t see that any of your conjecture on those properties removes them from the shadow inventory or foreclosure inventory at all, let alone with a high level of certainty.

I’ll say that my explanation above is speculative (like yours), but my argument with you is not based on my speculation or yours, but rather the horrid numbers coming out of ALL sources of actual data.

I have said before I do not claim RT is 100% accurate and I’ll concede you can find some of the properties by cross reference, but the numbers are horrible, some REOs are not reported and even a fraction of the numbers reported is a total disaster.

Then there is the DATA I posted from RealQuest which you refuse to acknowledge. Then there is a mountain of other data showing a really bad environment for RE. One minute you make “the bottom is in” type statements and the next that you say you expect “a next leg down”.

“The worst has come and gone already” (your words) and “I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming” (your words). How do you debate someone like you?

[Rt.66]

My bad SDRealtor, you are correct RT does show default amount but not loan balance or address, owners name, etc. I still think you made up the ones you mentioned or at least cherry picked them but since you do not described them, I can’t verify anything.

SDRealtor said:
[quote]3. I dont not have RealtyTrac account. I can go on for free and with my MLS tools and local knowledge, I can identify the properties I referenced. RealtyTrac is a POS. [/quote]

TG, you will notice he did not mention those other cross reference sources you did. He said he can do it with MLS tools.

If there have been ten foreclosures of the same model home on a given street during the past 18 months and RT shows 4 what “MLS tools” will tell you with 100% certainty if the ones currently listed on RT are NOT different than ones that were at one time listed but are no longer on RT, when you don’t know the loan amount, street address, parcel number or owner name?

I have found discrepancies with RT and said so several times. But I know they exist on both sides of our debate. Do you think there are houses in your hood that are in default or full blown REOs that do NOT show on RT? I know in the areas I follow there are.

The debate is whether or not RT has merit to the direction of SD RE values. I said that even if you cut their numbers in half, it would be an unmitigated disaster. You have argued the point so the burden to show that more than 50% of RT foreclosures are false is needed.

No matter your sources you won’t even come close to discounting 50% and you know it. Not even 25%.

Here is what you said SDRealtor:

[quote]FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right. [/quote]

To play your game and I’ll speculate too:
The auctions that are closed sales… sometimes the closed sale is the bank taking it back (Sold to the bank, I’ve seen that) and RT simply has mis-reported the change. The one that is auction not listed on MLS seems to be the definition of shadow inventory. The auction ones in short sale mean nothing other than the bank has filed docs and is ready to foreclose if the short sale does not suit them. The auction you claim is loan mod, who says it’s a loan mod, the embarrassed home owner? The last one, the preforeclosure not listed on MLS which you claim is a short sale, again a so called short sale that the bank is getting its foreclosure ducks lined up (NOD filed) on is not odd at all.

I can’t see that any of your conjecture on those properties removes them from the shadow inventory or foreclosure inventory at all, let alone with a high level of certainty.

I’ll say that my explanation above is speculative (like yours), but my argument with you is not based on my speculation or yours, but rather the horrid numbers coming out of ALL sources of actual data.

I have said before I do not claim RT is 100% accurate and I’ll concede you can find some of the properties by cross reference, but the numbers are horrible, some REOs are not reported and even a fraction of the numbers reported is a total disaster.

Then there is the DATA I posted from RealQuest which you refuse to acknowledge. Then there is a mountain of other data showing a really bad environment for RE. One minute you make “the bottom is in” type statements and the next that you say you expect “a next leg down”.

“The worst has come and gone already” (your words) and “I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming” (your words). How do you debate someone like you?

[Rt.66]

My bad SDRealtor, you are correct RT does show default amount but not loan balance or address, owners name, etc. I still think you made up the ones you mentioned or at least cherry picked them but since you do not described them, I can’t verify anything.

SDRealtor said:
[quote]3. I dont not have RealtyTrac account. I can go on for free and with my MLS tools and local knowledge, I can identify the properties I referenced. RealtyTrac is a POS. [/quote]

TG, you will notice he did not mention those other cross reference sources you did. He said he can do it with MLS tools.

If there have been ten foreclosures of the same model home on a given street during the past 18 months and RT shows 4 what “MLS tools” will tell you with 100% certainty if the ones currently listed on RT are NOT different than ones that were at one time listed but are no longer on RT, when you don’t know the loan amount, street address, parcel number or owner name?

I have found discrepancies with RT and said so several times. But I know they exist on both sides of our debate. Do you think there are houses in your hood that are in default or full blown REOs that do NOT show on RT? I know in the areas I follow there are.

The debate is whether or not RT has merit to the direction of SD RE values. I said that even if you cut their numbers in half, it would be an unmitigated disaster. You have argued the point so the burden to show that more than 50% of RT foreclosures are false is needed.

No matter your sources you won’t even come close to discounting 50% and you know it. Not even 25%.

Here is what you said SDRealtor:

[quote]FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right. [/quote]

To play your game and I’ll speculate too:
The auctions that are closed sales… sometimes the closed sale is the bank taking it back (Sold to the bank, I’ve seen that) and RT simply has mis-reported the change. The one that is auction not listed on MLS seems to be the definition of shadow inventory. The auction ones in short sale mean nothing other than the bank has filed docs and is ready to foreclose if the short sale does not suit them. The auction you claim is loan mod, who says it’s a loan mod, the embarrassed home owner? The last one, the preforeclosure not listed on MLS which you claim is a short sale, again a so called short sale that the bank is getting its foreclosure ducks lined up (NOD filed) on is not odd at all.

I can’t see that any of your conjecture on those properties removes them from the shadow inventory or foreclosure inventory at all, let alone with a high level of certainty.

I’ll say that my explanation above is speculative (like yours), but my argument with you is not based on my speculation or yours, but rather the horrid numbers coming out of ALL sources of actual data.

I have said before I do not claim RT is 100% accurate and I’ll concede you can find some of the properties by cross reference, but the numbers are horrible, some REOs are not reported and even a fraction of the numbers reported is a total disaster.

Then there is the DATA I posted from RealQuest which you refuse to acknowledge. Then there is a mountain of other data showing a really bad environment for RE. One minute you make “the bottom is in” type statements and the next that you say you expect “a next leg down”.

“The worst has come and gone already” (your words) and “I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming” (your words). How do you debate someone like you?

[sdrealtor]

My MLS tools cover exactly what TG provided details on. He can do it with a coupel sites while I can get it all with one click of a mouse.

Your example assuming 10 foreclosures of the same model on a single street as assinine. I dont know if there have been 10 foreclosures in the 10 year history of my 1100 home subdivision.

Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank.

The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump!

These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also.

Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont.

There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.

[sdrealtor]

My MLS tools cover exactly what TG provided details on. He can do it with a coupel sites while I can get it all with one click of a mouse.

Your example assuming 10 foreclosures of the same model on a single street as assinine. I dont know if there have been 10 foreclosures in the 10 year history of my 1100 home subdivision.

Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank.

The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump!

These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also.

Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont.

There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.

[sdrealtor]

My MLS tools cover exactly what TG provided details on. He can do it with a coupel sites while I can get it all with one click of a mouse.

Your example assuming 10 foreclosures of the same model on a single street as assinine. I dont know if there have been 10 foreclosures in the 10 year history of my 1100 home subdivision.

Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank.

The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump!

These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also.

Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont.

There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.

[sdrealtor]

My MLS tools cover exactly what TG provided details on. He can do it with a coupel sites while I can get it all with one click of a mouse.

Your example assuming 10 foreclosures of the same model on a single street as assinine. I dont know if there have been 10 foreclosures in the 10 year history of my 1100 home subdivision.

Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank.

The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump!

These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also.

Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont.

There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.

[sdrealtor]

My MLS tools cover exactly what TG provided details on. He can do it with a coupel sites while I can get it all with one click of a mouse.

Your example assuming 10 foreclosures of the same model on a single street as assinine. I dont know if there have been 10 foreclosures in the 10 year history of my 1100 home subdivision.

Your speculation is incorrect. Both auction then sold homes were successful short sales listed in the MLS. The current one auction not listed in MLS per realtytrac is a short sale on the mLS. A client of mine has an offer on it that is going to the bank.

The auction/loan mod has an auction date over 4 months old. It was never auctioned and never listed on MLS. Explain that one away chump!

These are not shadow inventory. They are active MLS inventory or already resolved. You claimed all teh RealtyTrac inventory was shadow inventory and I beleive a relatively small fraction actually is. More than anything they discredit RealtyTrac and the other online sites that have them wrong also.

Actual data is not accurate data. Do you beleive everything you see on TV or read? I dont.

There is no contradiction in saying the worst is over but there is more pain ahead just not as much as we have already experienced. You debate that by offering reliable proof or evidence to the contrary. You havent provided any yet.

[scaredyclassic]

while there’s no contradiction necessarily between saying “the worst is over” but “there’s anothe r leg coming down”, it oes kind of smack of having omnipotent knowledge. Just liek it’s very hard to call lows and highs in any investment area, it’s kinda hard to know when the worst is over until it is, and generaly spekaing, people are wrong about timing. if more losses are coming it’s difficult to quantify them, Also, i dont know the numbers but losses going forward from here might have a devastating effect on the market, since the farther down we go, the greater the pool of homeowners who suddenly become underwater. they may have been able to say to themselves previously, well, those were the pretend gains that were lost, but as or if 2001, 2000, 1999 homeowners fall into breakeven territory, could the feedback loop that tends to infect markets, and causes irrational behavior to the upside, maybe swing in to the downside. i dont think it’ contradictory to say the worst is over while more pain is coming…just…well…impossible to know…

[scaredyclassic]

while there’s no contradiction necessarily between saying “the worst is over” but “there’s anothe r leg coming down”, it oes kind of smack of having omnipotent knowledge. Just liek it’s very hard to call lows and highs in any investment area, it’s kinda hard to know when the worst is over until it is, and generaly spekaing, people are wrong about timing. if more losses are coming it’s difficult to quantify them, Also, i dont know the numbers but losses going forward from here might have a devastating effect on the market, since the farther down we go, the greater the pool of homeowners who suddenly become underwater. they may have been able to say to themselves previously, well, those were the pretend gains that were lost, but as or if 2001, 2000, 1999 homeowners fall into breakeven territory, could the feedback loop that tends to infect markets, and causes irrational behavior to the upside, maybe swing in to the downside. i dont think it’ contradictory to say the worst is over while more pain is coming…just…well…impossible to know…

[scaredyclassic]

while there’s no contradiction necessarily between saying “the worst is over” but “there’s anothe r leg coming down”, it oes kind of smack of having omnipotent knowledge. Just liek it’s very hard to call lows and highs in any investment area, it’s kinda hard to know when the worst is over until it is, and generaly spekaing, people are wrong about timing. if more losses are coming it’s difficult to quantify them, Also, i dont know the numbers but losses going forward from here might have a devastating effect on the market, since the farther down we go, the greater the pool of homeowners who suddenly become underwater. they may have been able to say to themselves previously, well, those were the pretend gains that were lost, but as or if 2001, 2000, 1999 homeowners fall into breakeven territory, could the feedback loop that tends to infect markets, and causes irrational behavior to the upside, maybe swing in to the downside. i dont think it’ contradictory to say the worst is over while more pain is coming…just…well…impossible to know…

[scaredyclassic]

while there’s no contradiction necessarily between saying “the worst is over” but “there’s anothe r leg coming down”, it oes kind of smack of having omnipotent knowledge. Just liek it’s very hard to call lows and highs in any investment area, it’s kinda hard to know when the worst is over until it is, and generaly spekaing, people are wrong about timing. if more losses are coming it’s difficult to quantify them, Also, i dont know the numbers but losses going forward from here might have a devastating effect on the market, since the farther down we go, the greater the pool of homeowners who suddenly become underwater. they may have been able to say to themselves previously, well, those were the pretend gains that were lost, but as or if 2001, 2000, 1999 homeowners fall into breakeven territory, could the feedback loop that tends to infect markets, and causes irrational behavior to the upside, maybe swing in to the downside. i dont think it’ contradictory to say the worst is over while more pain is coming…just…well…impossible to know…

[Author]

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