The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jameswenn]the 1.2, 1.5, and 217k, aren’t part of the inventory yet. So maybe they dind’t mention what’s actually in REO yet.[/quote]

Or 70 virgins just sounds better than 20 virgins, if you are going to make up numbers, might as well make up good ones.

I wouldn’t be cynical if I hadn’t been reading the same story for years, it chaps my ass even more because a few years ago I believed it. I should just smile and be slightly amused the way I am when 5 year olds talk about Santa Claus coming. The assumptions are where the problems lie, it isn’t a conspiracy, it’s false accounting by those peddling the theory.

1.2 million loans missed 3 payments, o.k, that’s 1.2 million repos. NO!, that’s potentially 1.2, but at no time in history did 100% of nods go not, even before bailouts, help for homeowners, loan mods, there was not a 100% nod to not. The 217k without a payment for a year, those are probably all going to end up repos, but how many of the 1.2 are doing it on purpose to get a loan mod, how many of the 1.7 million in the process will be sold as short sales. Do you realize that every short sale takes one away from these lists, check redfin who breaks out the shorts for you, shorts are a dominant force in the market now. Short sales are starting to go through, that is taking a serios bite out of the foreclose numbers.

Or you can get a tin foil hat and hang out with Micheal Jackson, but Santa Claus isn’t coming and neither is the Shadow Inventory.

The guys that put together the case/shiller charts have never been discredited to my knowlege, unlike the mr mortgages and peter schiffs of the world, until they screw up, their charts are legal tender in these parts.

[sdrealtor]

At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.[/quote]
Thats legit.
I just closed one today (with and nod and an not) and have approval to close on 4 more.

All of those have NOD’s recorded.

Likely NONE of them will end up as REO’s.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.[/quote]
Thats legit.
I just closed one today (with and nod and an not) and have approval to close on 4 more.

All of those have NOD’s recorded.

Likely NONE of them will end up as REO’s.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.[/quote]
Thats legit.
I just closed one today (with and nod and an not) and have approval to close on 4 more.

All of those have NOD’s recorded.

Likely NONE of them will end up as REO’s.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.[/quote]
Thats legit.
I just closed one today (with and nod and an not) and have approval to close on 4 more.

All of those have NOD’s recorded.

Likely NONE of them will end up as REO’s.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]At least 6 more of the 1.2 million with missed payments wont be going to the shadow inventory. I just their short sales over the last 2 weeks.[/quote]
Thats legit.
I just closed one today (with and nod and an not) and have approval to close on 4 more.

All of those have NOD’s recorded.

Likely NONE of them will end up as REO’s.

[temeculaguy]

sd and urban, on that topic, is it just you guys or is it just a whole lot smoother now? Last year, after a couple of failed tries, in which nobody got the house and the bank took it back and sold it themselves (for less in some cases, more in others) I swore them off because of the frustration and wasted time. Now I have a couple of new neighbors who recently bought their houses as shorts and report pretty smooth transactions and their houses are in a hell of a lot better shape than mine was. I see alot of them going through where before almost none did and they are more than 50% of the listings in my zip code. Have shorts found their time and are there enough of them to impact the foreclosures? I don’t know, it sure looks like more than a niche to me and something that never gets mentioned in the foreclosure doomsday articles.

[temeculaguy]

sd and urban, on that topic, is it just you guys or is it just a whole lot smoother now? Last year, after a couple of failed tries, in which nobody got the house and the bank took it back and sold it themselves (for less in some cases, more in others) I swore them off because of the frustration and wasted time. Now I have a couple of new neighbors who recently bought their houses as shorts and report pretty smooth transactions and their houses are in a hell of a lot better shape than mine was. I see alot of them going through where before almost none did and they are more than 50% of the listings in my zip code. Have shorts found their time and are there enough of them to impact the foreclosures? I don’t know, it sure looks like more than a niche to me and something that never gets mentioned in the foreclosure doomsday articles.

[temeculaguy]

sd and urban, on that topic, is it just you guys or is it just a whole lot smoother now? Last year, after a couple of failed tries, in which nobody got the house and the bank took it back and sold it themselves (for less in some cases, more in others) I swore them off because of the frustration and wasted time. Now I have a couple of new neighbors who recently bought their houses as shorts and report pretty smooth transactions and their houses are in a hell of a lot better shape than mine was. I see alot of them going through where before almost none did and they are more than 50% of the listings in my zip code. Have shorts found their time and are there enough of them to impact the foreclosures? I don’t know, it sure looks like more than a niche to me and something that never gets mentioned in the foreclosure doomsday articles.

[temeculaguy]

sd and urban, on that topic, is it just you guys or is it just a whole lot smoother now? Last year, after a couple of failed tries, in which nobody got the house and the bank took it back and sold it themselves (for less in some cases, more in others) I swore them off because of the frustration and wasted time. Now I have a couple of new neighbors who recently bought their houses as shorts and report pretty smooth transactions and their houses are in a hell of a lot better shape than mine was. I see alot of them going through where before almost none did and they are more than 50% of the listings in my zip code. Have shorts found their time and are there enough of them to impact the foreclosures? I don’t know, it sure looks like more than a niche to me and something that never gets mentioned in the foreclosure doomsday articles.

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