The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[scaredyclassic]

went to look at a place down the street from us. I would be willing to buy it , I’d like living there. it’s listed at 200k. was 289k back in 02 or 01. open house this morning, 2nd or 3d day listed, agent says there are 20 offers, between 215 and 245. she says she thinks it’ll go for 250. id be nervous even buying it at 200, but then again that’s my nature. nice place though. big 1/2 acre yard in temecula. I wouldnt pay 250.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]i wonder when will be a good time to buya house. is ther eever a good time?[/quote]
Maybe there will never be a good time to buy a house for you. Might not have anything to do with rent to buy ratios or any of the other “sound” economic reasons to commit. I think it is easy to give way too much of one’s life for the “American Dream” and you have posted about that before.

I think you have also talked about what a drag owning a house can be if you get relocation orders from your job or when facing other changes. The tradeoffs just might not be worth it. It’s very hard to resist being part of “what’s going on” and housing apparently is still it.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]i wonder when will be a good time to buya house. is ther eever a good time?[/quote]
Maybe there will never be a good time to buy a house for you. Might not have anything to do with rent to buy ratios or any of the other “sound” economic reasons to commit. I think it is easy to give way too much of one’s life for the “American Dream” and you have posted about that before.

I think you have also talked about what a drag owning a house can be if you get relocation orders from your job or when facing other changes. The tradeoffs just might not be worth it. It’s very hard to resist being part of “what’s going on” and housing apparently is still it.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]i wonder when will be a good time to buya house. is ther eever a good time?[/quote]
Maybe there will never be a good time to buy a house for you. Might not have anything to do with rent to buy ratios or any of the other “sound” economic reasons to commit. I think it is easy to give way too much of one’s life for the “American Dream” and you have posted about that before.

I think you have also talked about what a drag owning a house can be if you get relocation orders from your job or when facing other changes. The tradeoffs just might not be worth it. It’s very hard to resist being part of “what’s going on” and housing apparently is still it.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]i wonder when will be a good time to buya house. is ther eever a good time?[/quote]
Maybe there will never be a good time to buy a house for you. Might not have anything to do with rent to buy ratios or any of the other “sound” economic reasons to commit. I think it is easy to give way too much of one’s life for the “American Dream” and you have posted about that before.

I think you have also talked about what a drag owning a house can be if you get relocation orders from your job or when facing other changes. The tradeoffs just might not be worth it. It’s very hard to resist being part of “what’s going on” and housing apparently is still it.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]i wonder when will be a good time to buya house. is ther eever a good time?[/quote]
Maybe there will never be a good time to buy a house for you. Might not have anything to do with rent to buy ratios or any of the other “sound” economic reasons to commit. I think it is easy to give way too much of one’s life for the “American Dream” and you have posted about that before.

I think you have also talked about what a drag owning a house can be if you get relocation orders from your job or when facing other changes. The tradeoffs just might not be worth it. It’s very hard to resist being part of “what’s going on” and housing apparently is still it.

[CricketOnTheHearth]

Oops, argument over.
Shadow inventory is going up in smoke

J/K, these are probably in Detroit or something.
I think.

😯

[CricketOnTheHearth]

Oops, argument over.
Shadow inventory is going up in smoke

J/K, these are probably in Detroit or something.
I think.

😯

[CricketOnTheHearth]

Oops, argument over.
Shadow inventory is going up in smoke

J/K, these are probably in Detroit or something.
I think.

😯

[CricketOnTheHearth]

Oops, argument over.
Shadow inventory is going up in smoke

J/K, these are probably in Detroit or something.
I think.

😯

[CricketOnTheHearth]

Oops, argument over.
Shadow inventory is going up in smoke

J/K, these are probably in Detroit or something.
I think.

😯

[LuckyInOC]

[quote=sdrealtor]Others including myself are saying the worst is past. That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either. No one is arguing that the obvious isnt happening. The powers that be are trying to spread the pain and let time minimize the fall coupled with modest inflation. Rational thinking says it wont work but the reality is that it has been working. It wont stop and they will find new creative ways to continue doing so. The powers that be are winning and you just cant admit that.[/quote]

sdr, I too have a problem when it comes to say the worst is past. When I look at the FDIC numbers for banks and find that in the last 6 months the Nonaccrual status has increased 40%:

6/30/09 Nonaccrual Status: $83.5 Billion
3/31/09 Nonaccrual Status: $78.3 Billion
12/31/08 Nonaccrual Status: $59.6 Billion
12/31/07 Nonaccrual Status: $37.5 Billion
12/31/06 Nonaccrual Status: $15.0 Billion
…
12/31/02 Nonaccrual Status: $10.2 Billion

and has yet to stop increasing.

Nonaccrual — For purposes of this schedule, an asset is to be reported as being in nonaccrual status if:
(1) it is maintained on a cash basis because of deterioration in the financial condition of the borrower,
(2) payment in full of principal or interest is not expected, or (3) principal or interest has been in default for a period of 90 days or more unless the asset is both well secured and in the process of
collection.

Source: http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/call/crinst/897rc-n.pdf

Also, Non-current loans have almost doubled in the last 6 months and over 5x since 2006.

Non-current Loans to Loans:
As of 6/30/09: 5.52%
As of 3/31/09: 4.95%
As of 12/31/08: 3.85%
As of 12/31/07: 1.82%
As of 12/31/06: 0.91%
…
As of 12/31/02: 0.84%

http://piggington.com/shadow_sales

I don’t see from these numbers that the manipulation of the banks and housing market is working. I personally cannot see how things can stay the same or get better.

[quote=sdrealtor]That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either.[/quote]
And the Titanic can successfully maneuver around or collide into icebergs… “See, we hit that iceberg and nothing happened, the Titanic is indestructible…” Everything must be just fine…

Maybe there is the ‘Invisible Hand of God’…

I don’t know if it is urban legend, but I have always heard from the older generation “more people got hurt on the second lesser market drop than the first greater drop…”. Several thought the worst was over.

Luck In OC

[LuckyInOC]

[quote=sdrealtor]Others including myself are saying the worst is past. That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either. No one is arguing that the obvious isnt happening. The powers that be are trying to spread the pain and let time minimize the fall coupled with modest inflation. Rational thinking says it wont work but the reality is that it has been working. It wont stop and they will find new creative ways to continue doing so. The powers that be are winning and you just cant admit that.[/quote]

sdr, I too have a problem when it comes to say the worst is past. When I look at the FDIC numbers for banks and find that in the last 6 months the Nonaccrual status has increased 40%:

6/30/09 Nonaccrual Status: $83.5 Billion
3/31/09 Nonaccrual Status: $78.3 Billion
12/31/08 Nonaccrual Status: $59.6 Billion
12/31/07 Nonaccrual Status: $37.5 Billion
12/31/06 Nonaccrual Status: $15.0 Billion
…
12/31/02 Nonaccrual Status: $10.2 Billion

and has yet to stop increasing.

Nonaccrual — For purposes of this schedule, an asset is to be reported as being in nonaccrual status if:
(1) it is maintained on a cash basis because of deterioration in the financial condition of the borrower,
(2) payment in full of principal or interest is not expected, or (3) principal or interest has been in default for a period of 90 days or more unless the asset is both well secured and in the process of
collection.

Source: http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/call/crinst/897rc-n.pdf

Also, Non-current loans have almost doubled in the last 6 months and over 5x since 2006.

Non-current Loans to Loans:
As of 6/30/09: 5.52%
As of 3/31/09: 4.95%
As of 12/31/08: 3.85%
As of 12/31/07: 1.82%
As of 12/31/06: 0.91%
…
As of 12/31/02: 0.84%

http://piggington.com/shadow_sales

I don’t see from these numbers that the manipulation of the banks and housing market is working. I personally cannot see how things can stay the same or get better.

[quote=sdrealtor]That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either.[/quote]
And the Titanic can successfully maneuver around or collide into icebergs… “See, we hit that iceberg and nothing happened, the Titanic is indestructible…” Everything must be just fine…

Maybe there is the ‘Invisible Hand of God’…

I don’t know if it is urban legend, but I have always heard from the older generation “more people got hurt on the second lesser market drop than the first greater drop…”. Several thought the worst was over.

Luck In OC

[LuckyInOC]

[quote=sdrealtor]Others including myself are saying the worst is past. That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either. No one is arguing that the obvious isnt happening. The powers that be are trying to spread the pain and let time minimize the fall coupled with modest inflation. Rational thinking says it wont work but the reality is that it has been working. It wont stop and they will find new creative ways to continue doing so. The powers that be are winning and you just cant admit that.[/quote]

sdr, I too have a problem when it comes to say the worst is past. When I look at the FDIC numbers for banks and find that in the last 6 months the Nonaccrual status has increased 40%:

6/30/09 Nonaccrual Status: $83.5 Billion
3/31/09 Nonaccrual Status: $78.3 Billion
12/31/08 Nonaccrual Status: $59.6 Billion
12/31/07 Nonaccrual Status: $37.5 Billion
12/31/06 Nonaccrual Status: $15.0 Billion
…
12/31/02 Nonaccrual Status: $10.2 Billion

and has yet to stop increasing.

Nonaccrual — For purposes of this schedule, an asset is to be reported as being in nonaccrual status if:
(1) it is maintained on a cash basis because of deterioration in the financial condition of the borrower,
(2) payment in full of principal or interest is not expected, or (3) principal or interest has been in default for a period of 90 days or more unless the asset is both well secured and in the process of
collection.

Source: http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/call/crinst/897rc-n.pdf

Also, Non-current loans have almost doubled in the last 6 months and over 5x since 2006.

Non-current Loans to Loans:
As of 6/30/09: 5.52%
As of 3/31/09: 4.95%
As of 12/31/08: 3.85%
As of 12/31/07: 1.82%
As of 12/31/06: 0.91%
…
As of 12/31/02: 0.84%

http://piggington.com/shadow_sales

I don’t see from these numbers that the manipulation of the banks and housing market is working. I personally cannot see how things can stay the same or get better.

[quote=sdrealtor]That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either.[/quote]
And the Titanic can successfully maneuver around or collide into icebergs… “See, we hit that iceberg and nothing happened, the Titanic is indestructible…” Everything must be just fine…

Maybe there is the ‘Invisible Hand of God’…

I don’t know if it is urban legend, but I have always heard from the older generation “more people got hurt on the second lesser market drop than the first greater drop…”. Several thought the worst was over.

Luck In OC

[LuckyInOC]

[quote=sdrealtor]Others including myself are saying the worst is past. That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either. No one is arguing that the obvious isnt happening. The powers that be are trying to spread the pain and let time minimize the fall coupled with modest inflation. Rational thinking says it wont work but the reality is that it has been working. It wont stop and they will find new creative ways to continue doing so. The powers that be are winning and you just cant admit that.[/quote]

sdr, I too have a problem when it comes to say the worst is past. When I look at the FDIC numbers for banks and find that in the last 6 months the Nonaccrual status has increased 40%:

6/30/09 Nonaccrual Status: $83.5 Billion
3/31/09 Nonaccrual Status: $78.3 Billion
12/31/08 Nonaccrual Status: $59.6 Billion
12/31/07 Nonaccrual Status: $37.5 Billion
12/31/06 Nonaccrual Status: $15.0 Billion
…
12/31/02 Nonaccrual Status: $10.2 Billion

and has yet to stop increasing.

Nonaccrual — For purposes of this schedule, an asset is to be reported as being in nonaccrual status if:
(1) it is maintained on a cash basis because of deterioration in the financial condition of the borrower,
(2) payment in full of principal or interest is not expected, or (3) principal or interest has been in default for a period of 90 days or more unless the asset is both well secured and in the process of
collection.

Source: http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/call/crinst/897rc-n.pdf

Also, Non-current loans have almost doubled in the last 6 months and over 5x since 2006.

Non-current Loans to Loans:
As of 6/30/09: 5.52%
As of 3/31/09: 4.95%
As of 12/31/08: 3.85%
As of 12/31/07: 1.82%
As of 12/31/06: 0.91%
…
As of 12/31/02: 0.84%

http://piggington.com/shadow_sales

I don’t see from these numbers that the manipulation of the banks and housing market is working. I personally cannot see how things can stay the same or get better.

[quote=sdrealtor]That the market is being successfully manipulated and while there is no turn around in sight there is no disaster ahead either.[/quote]
And the Titanic can successfully maneuver around or collide into icebergs… “See, we hit that iceberg and nothing happened, the Titanic is indestructible…” Everything must be just fine…

Maybe there is the ‘Invisible Hand of God’…

I don’t know if it is urban legend, but I have always heard from the older generation “more people got hurt on the second lesser market drop than the first greater drop…”. Several thought the worst was over.

Luck In OC

[Author]

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