The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdcellar]

Okay, where in San Diego? I’m ready to buy.

[NotCranky]

We will only know the “super buys” looking in the rear view mirror .It takes guts and often poor tastes to get one. I am pretty sure they are happening.A year and a half back,or so, I posted that they were about to start happening in lower priced neighborhoods. I got flamed big time for it. Now check that rearview mirror J** and H**m**t and others.

I think most houses including mine are butt ugly, however some of these non- coastal, butt ugly houses in higher price ranges are selling at bottom like prices now IMO.

[NotCranky]

We will only know the “super buys” looking in the rear view mirror .It takes guts and often poor tastes to get one. I am pretty sure they are happening.A year and a half back,or so, I posted that they were about to start happening in lower priced neighborhoods. I got flamed big time for it. Now check that rearview mirror J** and H**m**t and others.

I think most houses including mine are butt ugly, however some of these non- coastal, butt ugly houses in higher price ranges are selling at bottom like prices now IMO.

[NotCranky]

We will only know the “super buys” looking in the rear view mirror .It takes guts and often poor tastes to get one. I am pretty sure they are happening.A year and a half back,or so, I posted that they were about to start happening in lower priced neighborhoods. I got flamed big time for it. Now check that rearview mirror J** and H**m**t and others.

I think most houses including mine are butt ugly, however some of these non- coastal, butt ugly houses in higher price ranges are selling at bottom like prices now IMO.

[NotCranky]

We will only know the “super buys” looking in the rear view mirror .It takes guts and often poor tastes to get one. I am pretty sure they are happening.A year and a half back,or so, I posted that they were about to start happening in lower priced neighborhoods. I got flamed big time for it. Now check that rearview mirror J** and H**m**t and others.

I think most houses including mine are butt ugly, however some of these non- coastal, butt ugly houses in higher price ranges are selling at bottom like prices now IMO.

[NotCranky]

We will only know the “super buys” looking in the rear view mirror .It takes guts and often poor tastes to get one. I am pretty sure they are happening.A year and a half back,or so, I posted that they were about to start happening in lower priced neighborhoods. I got flamed big time for it. Now check that rearview mirror J** and H**m**t and others.

I think most houses including mine are butt ugly, however some of these non- coastal, butt ugly houses in higher price ranges are selling at bottom like prices now IMO.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CA renter]
Also, just in case I’m coming across as a perma-bear; I’ve said since at least summer of 2008 that things were looking fairly realistic in the harder-hit areas.

Unfortunately, with all of the various credit/mortgage “stimuli” and supply manipulation (moratoriums, encouraging deadbeats, etc.), it looks like the govt will succeed in forming another bubble, especially in the lower-priced areas. Too much speculation going on again, which was one of the red flags during the bubble. This next batch of foreclosures will absolutely be on the govt tab, so not quite sure how they plan to deal with that in the future.
[/quote]
I would have to say I agree w/you on this also. I see people doing the FHA, 8k credit and squeeze their way into a place b/c of fear. Fear prices are going to shoot back up. Fear this is their last chance. These people barely have any savings and still plenty of debt w/cards, cars, loans, etc., w/questionable job security/income.

I can easily see a few of these could be in some trouble down the road. But at this point, w/the way the gov and banks are behaving, might end up being a good thing if they default, since they can live there for free.

And yet, I can’t bring myself to get on board w/this. In the end, you are stuck w/the place and debt or the headache/credit hit.

Edit: I have a friend (couple) who did a major short sale on the condo they bought at peak. They are renting and waiting it out. Yet I have another friend (couple) that have been renting out the bubble and now in panic mode about buying something quickly. I get worried when I see frenzy. Multiple bids doesn’t make me think bottom. But what do I know. Maybe now this is just the norm and the way things will be from here on out.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CA renter]
Also, just in case I’m coming across as a perma-bear; I’ve said since at least summer of 2008 that things were looking fairly realistic in the harder-hit areas.

Unfortunately, with all of the various credit/mortgage “stimuli” and supply manipulation (moratoriums, encouraging deadbeats, etc.), it looks like the govt will succeed in forming another bubble, especially in the lower-priced areas. Too much speculation going on again, which was one of the red flags during the bubble. This next batch of foreclosures will absolutely be on the govt tab, so not quite sure how they plan to deal with that in the future.
[/quote]
I would have to say I agree w/you on this also. I see people doing the FHA, 8k credit and squeeze their way into a place b/c of fear. Fear prices are going to shoot back up. Fear this is their last chance. These people barely have any savings and still plenty of debt w/cards, cars, loans, etc., w/questionable job security/income.

I can easily see a few of these could be in some trouble down the road. But at this point, w/the way the gov and banks are behaving, might end up being a good thing if they default, since they can live there for free.

And yet, I can’t bring myself to get on board w/this. In the end, you are stuck w/the place and debt or the headache/credit hit.

Edit: I have a friend (couple) who did a major short sale on the condo they bought at peak. They are renting and waiting it out. Yet I have another friend (couple) that have been renting out the bubble and now in panic mode about buying something quickly. I get worried when I see frenzy. Multiple bids doesn’t make me think bottom. But what do I know. Maybe now this is just the norm and the way things will be from here on out.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CA renter]
Also, just in case I’m coming across as a perma-bear; I’ve said since at least summer of 2008 that things were looking fairly realistic in the harder-hit areas.

Unfortunately, with all of the various credit/mortgage “stimuli” and supply manipulation (moratoriums, encouraging deadbeats, etc.), it looks like the govt will succeed in forming another bubble, especially in the lower-priced areas. Too much speculation going on again, which was one of the red flags during the bubble. This next batch of foreclosures will absolutely be on the govt tab, so not quite sure how they plan to deal with that in the future.
[/quote]
I would have to say I agree w/you on this also. I see people doing the FHA, 8k credit and squeeze their way into a place b/c of fear. Fear prices are going to shoot back up. Fear this is their last chance. These people barely have any savings and still plenty of debt w/cards, cars, loans, etc., w/questionable job security/income.

I can easily see a few of these could be in some trouble down the road. But at this point, w/the way the gov and banks are behaving, might end up being a good thing if they default, since they can live there for free.

And yet, I can’t bring myself to get on board w/this. In the end, you are stuck w/the place and debt or the headache/credit hit.

Edit: I have a friend (couple) who did a major short sale on the condo they bought at peak. They are renting and waiting it out. Yet I have another friend (couple) that have been renting out the bubble and now in panic mode about buying something quickly. I get worried when I see frenzy. Multiple bids doesn’t make me think bottom. But what do I know. Maybe now this is just the norm and the way things will be from here on out.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CA renter]
Also, just in case I’m coming across as a perma-bear; I’ve said since at least summer of 2008 that things were looking fairly realistic in the harder-hit areas.

Unfortunately, with all of the various credit/mortgage “stimuli” and supply manipulation (moratoriums, encouraging deadbeats, etc.), it looks like the govt will succeed in forming another bubble, especially in the lower-priced areas. Too much speculation going on again, which was one of the red flags during the bubble. This next batch of foreclosures will absolutely be on the govt tab, so not quite sure how they plan to deal with that in the future.
[/quote]
I would have to say I agree w/you on this also. I see people doing the FHA, 8k credit and squeeze their way into a place b/c of fear. Fear prices are going to shoot back up. Fear this is their last chance. These people barely have any savings and still plenty of debt w/cards, cars, loans, etc., w/questionable job security/income.

I can easily see a few of these could be in some trouble down the road. But at this point, w/the way the gov and banks are behaving, might end up being a good thing if they default, since they can live there for free.

And yet, I can’t bring myself to get on board w/this. In the end, you are stuck w/the place and debt or the headache/credit hit.

Edit: I have a friend (couple) who did a major short sale on the condo they bought at peak. They are renting and waiting it out. Yet I have another friend (couple) that have been renting out the bubble and now in panic mode about buying something quickly. I get worried when I see frenzy. Multiple bids doesn’t make me think bottom. But what do I know. Maybe now this is just the norm and the way things will be from here on out.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CA renter]
Also, just in case I’m coming across as a perma-bear; I’ve said since at least summer of 2008 that things were looking fairly realistic in the harder-hit areas.

Unfortunately, with all of the various credit/mortgage “stimuli” and supply manipulation (moratoriums, encouraging deadbeats, etc.), it looks like the govt will succeed in forming another bubble, especially in the lower-priced areas. Too much speculation going on again, which was one of the red flags during the bubble. This next batch of foreclosures will absolutely be on the govt tab, so not quite sure how they plan to deal with that in the future.
[/quote]
I would have to say I agree w/you on this also. I see people doing the FHA, 8k credit and squeeze their way into a place b/c of fear. Fear prices are going to shoot back up. Fear this is their last chance. These people barely have any savings and still plenty of debt w/cards, cars, loans, etc., w/questionable job security/income.

I can easily see a few of these could be in some trouble down the road. But at this point, w/the way the gov and banks are behaving, might end up being a good thing if they default, since they can live there for free.

And yet, I can’t bring myself to get on board w/this. In the end, you are stuck w/the place and debt or the headache/credit hit.

Edit: I have a friend (couple) who did a major short sale on the condo they bought at peak. They are renting and waiting it out. Yet I have another friend (couple) that have been renting out the bubble and now in panic mode about buying something quickly. I get worried when I see frenzy. Multiple bids doesn’t make me think bottom. But what do I know. Maybe now this is just the norm and the way things will be from here on out.

[scaredyclassic]

went to look at a place down the street from us. I would be willing to buy it , I’d like living there. it’s listed at 200k. was 289k back in 02 or 01. open house this morning, 2nd or 3d day listed, agent says there are 20 offers, between 215 and 245. she says she thinks it’ll go for 250. id be nervous even buying it at 200, but then again that’s my nature. nice place though. big 1/2 acre yard in temecula. I wouldnt pay 250.

[scaredyclassic]

went to look at a place down the street from us. I would be willing to buy it , I’d like living there. it’s listed at 200k. was 289k back in 02 or 01. open house this morning, 2nd or 3d day listed, agent says there are 20 offers, between 215 and 245. she says she thinks it’ll go for 250. id be nervous even buying it at 200, but then again that’s my nature. nice place though. big 1/2 acre yard in temecula. I wouldnt pay 250.

[scaredyclassic]

went to look at a place down the street from us. I would be willing to buy it , I’d like living there. it’s listed at 200k. was 289k back in 02 or 01. open house this morning, 2nd or 3d day listed, agent says there are 20 offers, between 215 and 245. she says she thinks it’ll go for 250. id be nervous even buying it at 200, but then again that’s my nature. nice place though. big 1/2 acre yard in temecula. I wouldnt pay 250.

[scaredyclassic]

went to look at a place down the street from us. I would be willing to buy it , I’d like living there. it’s listed at 200k. was 289k back in 02 or 01. open house this morning, 2nd or 3d day listed, agent says there are 20 offers, between 215 and 245. she says she thinks it’ll go for 250. id be nervous even buying it at 200, but then again that’s my nature. nice place though. big 1/2 acre yard in temecula. I wouldnt pay 250.

[Author]

Posts