The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdrealtor]

Nice grabbing a couple words and using them out of context. Limited supply creates stability and upward pressure. That cant be argued. Obviously there are other factors. I look at all factors not just one side. Show me where I said the markets were going up?

FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[sdrealtor]

I dont convince buyers of anything. I price them at what i think the market is and let the market decide what it sworth plain and simple.

I dont need to argue that all foreclosure data sources are wrong because you are doing a fine job for me dumbass. Read your own words – “I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find.” Just like some are missing many are falsely included. The data is absolute garbage and we have idea what is really going on as much as you like to think you or they do. I hear plenty of anecdotal evidence. One frequent poster here through some up based upon neighborhood chatter. I got the details of the property through the private message system and the anecdotal neighborhood chatter was wrong.

I’m not falling for anyone’s games. My eyes are wide open. You should try it sometime.

[sdrealtor]

I dont convince buyers of anything. I price them at what i think the market is and let the market decide what it sworth plain and simple.

I dont need to argue that all foreclosure data sources are wrong because you are doing a fine job for me dumbass. Read your own words – “I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find.” Just like some are missing many are falsely included. The data is absolute garbage and we have idea what is really going on as much as you like to think you or they do. I hear plenty of anecdotal evidence. One frequent poster here through some up based upon neighborhood chatter. I got the details of the property through the private message system and the anecdotal neighborhood chatter was wrong.

I’m not falling for anyone’s games. My eyes are wide open. You should try it sometime.

[sdrealtor]

I dont convince buyers of anything. I price them at what i think the market is and let the market decide what it sworth plain and simple.

I dont need to argue that all foreclosure data sources are wrong because you are doing a fine job for me dumbass. Read your own words – “I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find.” Just like some are missing many are falsely included. The data is absolute garbage and we have idea what is really going on as much as you like to think you or they do. I hear plenty of anecdotal evidence. One frequent poster here through some up based upon neighborhood chatter. I got the details of the property through the private message system and the anecdotal neighborhood chatter was wrong.

I’m not falling for anyone’s games. My eyes are wide open. You should try it sometime.

[sdrealtor]

I dont convince buyers of anything. I price them at what i think the market is and let the market decide what it sworth plain and simple.

I dont need to argue that all foreclosure data sources are wrong because you are doing a fine job for me dumbass. Read your own words – “I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find.” Just like some are missing many are falsely included. The data is absolute garbage and we have idea what is really going on as much as you like to think you or they do. I hear plenty of anecdotal evidence. One frequent poster here through some up based upon neighborhood chatter. I got the details of the property through the private message system and the anecdotal neighborhood chatter was wrong.

I’m not falling for anyone’s games. My eyes are wide open. You should try it sometime.

[sdrealtor]

I dont convince buyers of anything. I price them at what i think the market is and let the market decide what it sworth plain and simple.

I dont need to argue that all foreclosure data sources are wrong because you are doing a fine job for me dumbass. Read your own words – “I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find.” Just like some are missing many are falsely included. The data is absolute garbage and we have idea what is really going on as much as you like to think you or they do. I hear plenty of anecdotal evidence. One frequent poster here through some up based upon neighborhood chatter. I got the details of the property through the private message system and the anecdotal neighborhood chatter was wrong.

I’m not falling for anyone’s games. My eyes are wide open. You should try it sometime.

[Rt.66]

It’s a fact that none of us will dispute that housing values have fallen by $100s of thousands in SD.

Data sources are reporting that people in droves are discontinuing payment on those mortgages. Is this a shocking development? Should we be surprised and skeptical of data from different sources confirming this? This forum never fails to find someone willing to fight reality.

What sense does this debate make? This is what people do when they are $100ks underwater. Some here are arguing that the obvious and rational result is not happening and further that the sources supporting the obvious and rational result are wrong.

Everyday there are several articles documenting banks sitting on REOs, hiding inventory and doing all sorts of things you’d expect technically insolvent institutions to do when they would like to hide their insolvency.

Yet some debate that it’s actually happening or claim its happening but not to a disturbing degree. Rational thinking is that it makes sense that they are doing exactly what is being reported.

[Rt.66]

It’s a fact that none of us will dispute that housing values have fallen by $100s of thousands in SD.

Data sources are reporting that people in droves are discontinuing payment on those mortgages. Is this a shocking development? Should we be surprised and skeptical of data from different sources confirming this? This forum never fails to find someone willing to fight reality.

What sense does this debate make? This is what people do when they are $100ks underwater. Some here are arguing that the obvious and rational result is not happening and further that the sources supporting the obvious and rational result are wrong.

Everyday there are several articles documenting banks sitting on REOs, hiding inventory and doing all sorts of things you’d expect technically insolvent institutions to do when they would like to hide their insolvency.

Yet some debate that it’s actually happening or claim its happening but not to a disturbing degree. Rational thinking is that it makes sense that they are doing exactly what is being reported.

[Rt.66]

It’s a fact that none of us will dispute that housing values have fallen by $100s of thousands in SD.

Data sources are reporting that people in droves are discontinuing payment on those mortgages. Is this a shocking development? Should we be surprised and skeptical of data from different sources confirming this? This forum never fails to find someone willing to fight reality.

What sense does this debate make? This is what people do when they are $100ks underwater. Some here are arguing that the obvious and rational result is not happening and further that the sources supporting the obvious and rational result are wrong.

Everyday there are several articles documenting banks sitting on REOs, hiding inventory and doing all sorts of things you’d expect technically insolvent institutions to do when they would like to hide their insolvency.

Yet some debate that it’s actually happening or claim its happening but not to a disturbing degree. Rational thinking is that it makes sense that they are doing exactly what is being reported.

[Rt.66]

It’s a fact that none of us will dispute that housing values have fallen by $100s of thousands in SD.

Data sources are reporting that people in droves are discontinuing payment on those mortgages. Is this a shocking development? Should we be surprised and skeptical of data from different sources confirming this? This forum never fails to find someone willing to fight reality.

What sense does this debate make? This is what people do when they are $100ks underwater. Some here are arguing that the obvious and rational result is not happening and further that the sources supporting the obvious and rational result are wrong.

Everyday there are several articles documenting banks sitting on REOs, hiding inventory and doing all sorts of things you’d expect technically insolvent institutions to do when they would like to hide their insolvency.

Yet some debate that it’s actually happening or claim its happening but not to a disturbing degree. Rational thinking is that it makes sense that they are doing exactly what is being reported.

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