The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[scaredyclassic]

i wonder when will be a good time to buya house. is ther eever a good time?

[sdrealtor]

Rich
I’ll have to disagree and dont really believe its an arguable point. First, its important to understand the guy I saw was far more eloquent in laying this out than I. Second, it was said in relation to equity markets (where are far more efficient oin their pricing and to which it is true in a purer sense) not housing. The point is not a specific analyst being bearish or bullish it is the nature of a bearish case vs a bullish case.

With that said, whatever is and has gone on is already priced into the assets current value. The bull always requires things to get better not stay the same. For housing prices to increase, any ill gotten gains must hold as well as future gains piling on top of that. The bear only requires the status quo.

Housing of course is not an efficient market as equities but whether a specific bear calls for another huge leg down, its still a bearish market if nominal prices stay the same or fall only slightly as inflation drops real values. A bear is right when prices stay flat. For a bull to be right things must get better and no matter how good the data is it requires a leap of faith.

[sdrealtor]

Rich
I’ll have to disagree and dont really believe its an arguable point. First, its important to understand the guy I saw was far more eloquent in laying this out than I. Second, it was said in relation to equity markets (where are far more efficient oin their pricing and to which it is true in a purer sense) not housing. The point is not a specific analyst being bearish or bullish it is the nature of a bearish case vs a bullish case.

With that said, whatever is and has gone on is already priced into the assets current value. The bull always requires things to get better not stay the same. For housing prices to increase, any ill gotten gains must hold as well as future gains piling on top of that. The bear only requires the status quo.

Housing of course is not an efficient market as equities but whether a specific bear calls for another huge leg down, its still a bearish market if nominal prices stay the same or fall only slightly as inflation drops real values. A bear is right when prices stay flat. For a bull to be right things must get better and no matter how good the data is it requires a leap of faith.

[sdrealtor]

Rich
I’ll have to disagree and dont really believe its an arguable point. First, its important to understand the guy I saw was far more eloquent in laying this out than I. Second, it was said in relation to equity markets (where are far more efficient oin their pricing and to which it is true in a purer sense) not housing. The point is not a specific analyst being bearish or bullish it is the nature of a bearish case vs a bullish case.

With that said, whatever is and has gone on is already priced into the assets current value. The bull always requires things to get better not stay the same. For housing prices to increase, any ill gotten gains must hold as well as future gains piling on top of that. The bear only requires the status quo.

Housing of course is not an efficient market as equities but whether a specific bear calls for another huge leg down, its still a bearish market if nominal prices stay the same or fall only slightly as inflation drops real values. A bear is right when prices stay flat. For a bull to be right things must get better and no matter how good the data is it requires a leap of faith.

[sdrealtor]

Rich
I’ll have to disagree and dont really believe its an arguable point. First, its important to understand the guy I saw was far more eloquent in laying this out than I. Second, it was said in relation to equity markets (where are far more efficient oin their pricing and to which it is true in a purer sense) not housing. The point is not a specific analyst being bearish or bullish it is the nature of a bearish case vs a bullish case.

With that said, whatever is and has gone on is already priced into the assets current value. The bull always requires things to get better not stay the same. For housing prices to increase, any ill gotten gains must hold as well as future gains piling on top of that. The bear only requires the status quo.

Housing of course is not an efficient market as equities but whether a specific bear calls for another huge leg down, its still a bearish market if nominal prices stay the same or fall only slightly as inflation drops real values. A bear is right when prices stay flat. For a bull to be right things must get better and no matter how good the data is it requires a leap of faith.

[sdrealtor]

Rich
I’ll have to disagree and dont really believe its an arguable point. First, its important to understand the guy I saw was far more eloquent in laying this out than I. Second, it was said in relation to equity markets (where are far more efficient oin their pricing and to which it is true in a purer sense) not housing. The point is not a specific analyst being bearish or bullish it is the nature of a bearish case vs a bullish case.

With that said, whatever is and has gone on is already priced into the assets current value. The bull always requires things to get better not stay the same. For housing prices to increase, any ill gotten gains must hold as well as future gains piling on top of that. The bear only requires the status quo.

Housing of course is not an efficient market as equities but whether a specific bear calls for another huge leg down, its still a bearish market if nominal prices stay the same or fall only slightly as inflation drops real values. A bear is right when prices stay flat. For a bull to be right things must get better and no matter how good the data is it requires a leap of faith.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[sdrealtor]

Spin away spinboy. I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently.

Also I never said I was making a killing selling homes banks took away from families. What I have been doing is fix peoples problems before the bank takes them away helping them have a better future prospect. Problems that I did not create. Problems that I criticized my peers for when they were creating them. There are Charlatans in every industry. Some of those are now out there claiming to have been bears all along yet they have piles for past clients up the river. I do not. I can honestly say that I have one client who I sold a house to that got into trouble and that was due to a divorce. Had that not happened he’d be fine.

The analyst was not a CNBC analyst he was an independent analyst appearing on CNBC. HIs point was not that having a rational argument makes you wrong. What you are missing is that having a rational argument does not always make you right. There is a difference. You dont want to look at both sides of the argument and that is what Rich put so well. It is also what you failed to grasp.

[sdrealtor]

Spin away spinboy. I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently.

Also I never said I was making a killing selling homes banks took away from families. What I have been doing is fix peoples problems before the bank takes them away helping them have a better future prospect. Problems that I did not create. Problems that I criticized my peers for when they were creating them. There are Charlatans in every industry. Some of those are now out there claiming to have been bears all along yet they have piles for past clients up the river. I do not. I can honestly say that I have one client who I sold a house to that got into trouble and that was due to a divorce. Had that not happened he’d be fine.

The analyst was not a CNBC analyst he was an independent analyst appearing on CNBC. HIs point was not that having a rational argument makes you wrong. What you are missing is that having a rational argument does not always make you right. There is a difference. You dont want to look at both sides of the argument and that is what Rich put so well. It is also what you failed to grasp.

[sdrealtor]

Spin away spinboy. I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently.

Also I never said I was making a killing selling homes banks took away from families. What I have been doing is fix peoples problems before the bank takes them away helping them have a better future prospect. Problems that I did not create. Problems that I criticized my peers for when they were creating them. There are Charlatans in every industry. Some of those are now out there claiming to have been bears all along yet they have piles for past clients up the river. I do not. I can honestly say that I have one client who I sold a house to that got into trouble and that was due to a divorce. Had that not happened he’d be fine.

The analyst was not a CNBC analyst he was an independent analyst appearing on CNBC. HIs point was not that having a rational argument makes you wrong. What you are missing is that having a rational argument does not always make you right. There is a difference. You dont want to look at both sides of the argument and that is what Rich put so well. It is also what you failed to grasp.

[sdrealtor]

Spin away spinboy. I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently.

Also I never said I was making a killing selling homes banks took away from families. What I have been doing is fix peoples problems before the bank takes them away helping them have a better future prospect. Problems that I did not create. Problems that I criticized my peers for when they were creating them. There are Charlatans in every industry. Some of those are now out there claiming to have been bears all along yet they have piles for past clients up the river. I do not. I can honestly say that I have one client who I sold a house to that got into trouble and that was due to a divorce. Had that not happened he’d be fine.

The analyst was not a CNBC analyst he was an independent analyst appearing on CNBC. HIs point was not that having a rational argument makes you wrong. What you are missing is that having a rational argument does not always make you right. There is a difference. You dont want to look at both sides of the argument and that is what Rich put so well. It is also what you failed to grasp.

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