The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[jpinpb]

To be fair, I’ve been hearing about people not making payments and not even getting any NODs for many months, so that could account for the low NODs. The banks aren’t even bothering to file NODs.

[sdrealtor]

A couple weeks ago I saw an analyst on CNBC that really resonated with me. He was talking about the pyschology of bears vs bulls and the cases they bring. He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.

I had never looked at it that way before and it really struck as something often overlooked but so obvious.

[sdrealtor]

A couple weeks ago I saw an analyst on CNBC that really resonated with me. He was talking about the pyschology of bears vs bulls and the cases they bring. He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.

I had never looked at it that way before and it really struck as something often overlooked but so obvious.

[sdrealtor]

A couple weeks ago I saw an analyst on CNBC that really resonated with me. He was talking about the pyschology of bears vs bulls and the cases they bring. He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.

I had never looked at it that way before and it really struck as something often overlooked but so obvious.

[sdrealtor]

A couple weeks ago I saw an analyst on CNBC that really resonated with me. He was talking about the pyschology of bears vs bulls and the cases they bring. He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.

I had never looked at it that way before and it really struck as something often overlooked but so obvious.

[sdrealtor]

A couple weeks ago I saw an analyst on CNBC that really resonated with me. He was talking about the pyschology of bears vs bulls and the cases they bring. He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.

I had never looked at it that way before and it really struck as something often overlooked but so obvious.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jpinpb]To be fair, I’ve been hearing about people not making payments and not even getting any NODs for many months, so that could account for the low NODs. The banks aren’t even bothering to file NODs.[/quote]

But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers. If someone didn’t pay all year and didn’t get a nod all year, that wouldn’t explain a drop in nods or nots in the last two months. There are a few bits of info in the recorders numbers. nods/nots started rising this time last year and have been declining recently. I wish it wasn’t so late and I didn’t have to go to bed, I just figured out a whole bunch of things I want to look up, not sure where to even get the data. maybe someone else can figure it out. I’d love to see a graph of the county recorders numbers (not realty tracs crap), maybe a one year or a two year graph, showing nods, nots and nots that went through to either the bank or an investor. Then plot the number of short sales that have gone through in one color and loan mods in another color. Then pinpoint significant events such as state and federal moratoriums and foreclosure rule changes and maybe a few of the larger lender takeovers. I know it’s a tall order, but just in case Rich or someone else is bored, it may answer the giant question “where are we in the cycle” and my personal question “are short sales and reo sales churning through the distress.”

Industry public relations people and gov’t hacks will tell you it’s all over and values will start rising on one hand, while obscure websites and whackjobs will tell you we are all going to be growing food in the backyard using gold as our currency on the other hand. The truth is somewhere in the middle, where exactly is up for debate, but it would be nice to see all of the data on one graph.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jpinpb]To be fair, I’ve been hearing about people not making payments and not even getting any NODs for many months, so that could account for the low NODs. The banks aren’t even bothering to file NODs.[/quote]

But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers. If someone didn’t pay all year and didn’t get a nod all year, that wouldn’t explain a drop in nods or nots in the last two months. There are a few bits of info in the recorders numbers. nods/nots started rising this time last year and have been declining recently. I wish it wasn’t so late and I didn’t have to go to bed, I just figured out a whole bunch of things I want to look up, not sure where to even get the data. maybe someone else can figure it out. I’d love to see a graph of the county recorders numbers (not realty tracs crap), maybe a one year or a two year graph, showing nods, nots and nots that went through to either the bank or an investor. Then plot the number of short sales that have gone through in one color and loan mods in another color. Then pinpoint significant events such as state and federal moratoriums and foreclosure rule changes and maybe a few of the larger lender takeovers. I know it’s a tall order, but just in case Rich or someone else is bored, it may answer the giant question “where are we in the cycle” and my personal question “are short sales and reo sales churning through the distress.”

Industry public relations people and gov’t hacks will tell you it’s all over and values will start rising on one hand, while obscure websites and whackjobs will tell you we are all going to be growing food in the backyard using gold as our currency on the other hand. The truth is somewhere in the middle, where exactly is up for debate, but it would be nice to see all of the data on one graph.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jpinpb]To be fair, I’ve been hearing about people not making payments and not even getting any NODs for many months, so that could account for the low NODs. The banks aren’t even bothering to file NODs.[/quote]

But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers. If someone didn’t pay all year and didn’t get a nod all year, that wouldn’t explain a drop in nods or nots in the last two months. There are a few bits of info in the recorders numbers. nods/nots started rising this time last year and have been declining recently. I wish it wasn’t so late and I didn’t have to go to bed, I just figured out a whole bunch of things I want to look up, not sure where to even get the data. maybe someone else can figure it out. I’d love to see a graph of the county recorders numbers (not realty tracs crap), maybe a one year or a two year graph, showing nods, nots and nots that went through to either the bank or an investor. Then plot the number of short sales that have gone through in one color and loan mods in another color. Then pinpoint significant events such as state and federal moratoriums and foreclosure rule changes and maybe a few of the larger lender takeovers. I know it’s a tall order, but just in case Rich or someone else is bored, it may answer the giant question “where are we in the cycle” and my personal question “are short sales and reo sales churning through the distress.”

Industry public relations people and gov’t hacks will tell you it’s all over and values will start rising on one hand, while obscure websites and whackjobs will tell you we are all going to be growing food in the backyard using gold as our currency on the other hand. The truth is somewhere in the middle, where exactly is up for debate, but it would be nice to see all of the data on one graph.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jpinpb]To be fair, I’ve been hearing about people not making payments and not even getting any NODs for many months, so that could account for the low NODs. The banks aren’t even bothering to file NODs.[/quote]

But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers. If someone didn’t pay all year and didn’t get a nod all year, that wouldn’t explain a drop in nods or nots in the last two months. There are a few bits of info in the recorders numbers. nods/nots started rising this time last year and have been declining recently. I wish it wasn’t so late and I didn’t have to go to bed, I just figured out a whole bunch of things I want to look up, not sure where to even get the data. maybe someone else can figure it out. I’d love to see a graph of the county recorders numbers (not realty tracs crap), maybe a one year or a two year graph, showing nods, nots and nots that went through to either the bank or an investor. Then plot the number of short sales that have gone through in one color and loan mods in another color. Then pinpoint significant events such as state and federal moratoriums and foreclosure rule changes and maybe a few of the larger lender takeovers. I know it’s a tall order, but just in case Rich or someone else is bored, it may answer the giant question “where are we in the cycle” and my personal question “are short sales and reo sales churning through the distress.”

Industry public relations people and gov’t hacks will tell you it’s all over and values will start rising on one hand, while obscure websites and whackjobs will tell you we are all going to be growing food in the backyard using gold as our currency on the other hand. The truth is somewhere in the middle, where exactly is up for debate, but it would be nice to see all of the data on one graph.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jpinpb]To be fair, I’ve been hearing about people not making payments and not even getting any NODs for many months, so that could account for the low NODs. The banks aren’t even bothering to file NODs.[/quote]

But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers. If someone didn’t pay all year and didn’t get a nod all year, that wouldn’t explain a drop in nods or nots in the last two months. There are a few bits of info in the recorders numbers. nods/nots started rising this time last year and have been declining recently. I wish it wasn’t so late and I didn’t have to go to bed, I just figured out a whole bunch of things I want to look up, not sure where to even get the data. maybe someone else can figure it out. I’d love to see a graph of the county recorders numbers (not realty tracs crap), maybe a one year or a two year graph, showing nods, nots and nots that went through to either the bank or an investor. Then plot the number of short sales that have gone through in one color and loan mods in another color. Then pinpoint significant events such as state and federal moratoriums and foreclosure rule changes and maybe a few of the larger lender takeovers. I know it’s a tall order, but just in case Rich or someone else is bored, it may answer the giant question “where are we in the cycle” and my personal question “are short sales and reo sales churning through the distress.”

Industry public relations people and gov’t hacks will tell you it’s all over and values will start rising on one hand, while obscure websites and whackjobs will tell you we are all going to be growing food in the backyard using gold as our currency on the other hand. The truth is somewhere in the middle, where exactly is up for debate, but it would be nice to see all of the data on one graph.

[Rt.66]

What a surprise, the knife catchers hoping for future gains (or rather a stop to the bleeding) and realtors are claiming all the numbers are whack or just refusing to even acknowledge them.

Number don’t lie folks and all the high hopes in the world won’t change what is actually taking place in the housing market and the economy.

Like I said before, you can cut the RealtyTrac numbers in HALF and they would still be very, very bad and proves the shadow inventory is real and not really even hiding. Bankers love that you believe the seemingly unbelievable (no shadow/no disaster) though.

I’ve watched RealtyTrac in certain areas for years and constantly see shadow houses simply disappear from their listings, that I know are still bank owned. Rarely have I seen a house empty for 12-18 months and still be listed on RT (they vanish).

RT gets its numbers from public records people, not from cereal boxes or the crumb filled desk drawers of perma-bears.

Of course there are instances (many) where a house sells and someone sees it still listed as a foreclosure on RT for a few days or weeks before the system learns of the sale and records it as such. It will get listed as a sale by RT and the understandable lag equals out with the lag in reporting REOs.

Sometimes a week or two to report a NOD or NTS and sometimes a week or three to report a sale, it all comes out in the wash and the numbers suck hard.

I bring numbers and links; others bring high hopes and painfully transparent commission aspirations.

[Rt.66]

What a surprise, the knife catchers hoping for future gains (or rather a stop to the bleeding) and realtors are claiming all the numbers are whack or just refusing to even acknowledge them.

Number don’t lie folks and all the high hopes in the world won’t change what is actually taking place in the housing market and the economy.

Like I said before, you can cut the RealtyTrac numbers in HALF and they would still be very, very bad and proves the shadow inventory is real and not really even hiding. Bankers love that you believe the seemingly unbelievable (no shadow/no disaster) though.

I’ve watched RealtyTrac in certain areas for years and constantly see shadow houses simply disappear from their listings, that I know are still bank owned. Rarely have I seen a house empty for 12-18 months and still be listed on RT (they vanish).

RT gets its numbers from public records people, not from cereal boxes or the crumb filled desk drawers of perma-bears.

Of course there are instances (many) where a house sells and someone sees it still listed as a foreclosure on RT for a few days or weeks before the system learns of the sale and records it as such. It will get listed as a sale by RT and the understandable lag equals out with the lag in reporting REOs.

Sometimes a week or two to report a NOD or NTS and sometimes a week or three to report a sale, it all comes out in the wash and the numbers suck hard.

I bring numbers and links; others bring high hopes and painfully transparent commission aspirations.

[Rt.66]

What a surprise, the knife catchers hoping for future gains (or rather a stop to the bleeding) and realtors are claiming all the numbers are whack or just refusing to even acknowledge them.

Number don’t lie folks and all the high hopes in the world won’t change what is actually taking place in the housing market and the economy.

Like I said before, you can cut the RealtyTrac numbers in HALF and they would still be very, very bad and proves the shadow inventory is real and not really even hiding. Bankers love that you believe the seemingly unbelievable (no shadow/no disaster) though.

I’ve watched RealtyTrac in certain areas for years and constantly see shadow houses simply disappear from their listings, that I know are still bank owned. Rarely have I seen a house empty for 12-18 months and still be listed on RT (they vanish).

RT gets its numbers from public records people, not from cereal boxes or the crumb filled desk drawers of perma-bears.

Of course there are instances (many) where a house sells and someone sees it still listed as a foreclosure on RT for a few days or weeks before the system learns of the sale and records it as such. It will get listed as a sale by RT and the understandable lag equals out with the lag in reporting REOs.

Sometimes a week or two to report a NOD or NTS and sometimes a week or three to report a sale, it all comes out in the wash and the numbers suck hard.

I bring numbers and links; others bring high hopes and painfully transparent commission aspirations.

[Rt.66]

What a surprise, the knife catchers hoping for future gains (or rather a stop to the bleeding) and realtors are claiming all the numbers are whack or just refusing to even acknowledge them.

Number don’t lie folks and all the high hopes in the world won’t change what is actually taking place in the housing market and the economy.

Like I said before, you can cut the RealtyTrac numbers in HALF and they would still be very, very bad and proves the shadow inventory is real and not really even hiding. Bankers love that you believe the seemingly unbelievable (no shadow/no disaster) though.

I’ve watched RealtyTrac in certain areas for years and constantly see shadow houses simply disappear from their listings, that I know are still bank owned. Rarely have I seen a house empty for 12-18 months and still be listed on RT (they vanish).

RT gets its numbers from public records people, not from cereal boxes or the crumb filled desk drawers of perma-bears.

Of course there are instances (many) where a house sells and someone sees it still listed as a foreclosure on RT for a few days or weeks before the system learns of the sale and records it as such. It will get listed as a sale by RT and the understandable lag equals out with the lag in reporting REOs.

Sometimes a week or two to report a NOD or NTS and sometimes a week or three to report a sale, it all comes out in the wash and the numbers suck hard.

I bring numbers and links; others bring high hopes and painfully transparent commission aspirations.

[Author]

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