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CricketOnTheHearth.
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October 1, 2009 at 11:20 AM #463438October 1, 2009 at 2:50 PM #462643
Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]In my view this shadow inventory is at least part urban legend part truth,
The truth is that yes there are still a lot of homes that will sell under some sort of distress sale category and that will continue to depress the market some.
The other part is that Socal still needs more Single family homes, and any decent home at a decent price will get bought almost as soon as it hits the market in most of SD and TV anyway (maybe not some places like antelope Valley or whatever) and that will keep the market more or less level (or at least at about cost to produce) for a while yet.
But five or six years from now well you guess.[/quote]
Or to put this another way,
For single Family homes in most of Socal, there is enough pent up demand (at the right price = mortgage at about cost to rent) ,
That IMO it almost does not matter how many homes go into foreclosure, they will be bought up almost as fast as they hit the market,
Just think about TV, about a year and a half ago, it just seemed overwhelming there were so many foreclosures , I mean the place was just flooded with them, but most got bought up a lot quicker than many expected.
Just something to think about.
I remember an article from a well known business magazine at that time that was saying Murrieta was number one city in the nation in home resale’s due to foreclosure sales, Temecula was number three.
And these are not really that big of cities .
October 1, 2009 at 2:50 PM #462837Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]In my view this shadow inventory is at least part urban legend part truth,
The truth is that yes there are still a lot of homes that will sell under some sort of distress sale category and that will continue to depress the market some.
The other part is that Socal still needs more Single family homes, and any decent home at a decent price will get bought almost as soon as it hits the market in most of SD and TV anyway (maybe not some places like antelope Valley or whatever) and that will keep the market more or less level (or at least at about cost to produce) for a while yet.
But five or six years from now well you guess.[/quote]
Or to put this another way,
For single Family homes in most of Socal, there is enough pent up demand (at the right price = mortgage at about cost to rent) ,
That IMO it almost does not matter how many homes go into foreclosure, they will be bought up almost as fast as they hit the market,
Just think about TV, about a year and a half ago, it just seemed overwhelming there were so many foreclosures , I mean the place was just flooded with them, but most got bought up a lot quicker than many expected.
Just something to think about.
I remember an article from a well known business magazine at that time that was saying Murrieta was number one city in the nation in home resale’s due to foreclosure sales, Temecula was number three.
And these are not really that big of cities .
October 1, 2009 at 2:50 PM #463182Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]In my view this shadow inventory is at least part urban legend part truth,
The truth is that yes there are still a lot of homes that will sell under some sort of distress sale category and that will continue to depress the market some.
The other part is that Socal still needs more Single family homes, and any decent home at a decent price will get bought almost as soon as it hits the market in most of SD and TV anyway (maybe not some places like antelope Valley or whatever) and that will keep the market more or less level (or at least at about cost to produce) for a while yet.
But five or six years from now well you guess.[/quote]
Or to put this another way,
For single Family homes in most of Socal, there is enough pent up demand (at the right price = mortgage at about cost to rent) ,
That IMO it almost does not matter how many homes go into foreclosure, they will be bought up almost as fast as they hit the market,
Just think about TV, about a year and a half ago, it just seemed overwhelming there were so many foreclosures , I mean the place was just flooded with them, but most got bought up a lot quicker than many expected.
Just something to think about.
I remember an article from a well known business magazine at that time that was saying Murrieta was number one city in the nation in home resale’s due to foreclosure sales, Temecula was number three.
And these are not really that big of cities .
October 1, 2009 at 2:50 PM #463254Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]In my view this shadow inventory is at least part urban legend part truth,
The truth is that yes there are still a lot of homes that will sell under some sort of distress sale category and that will continue to depress the market some.
The other part is that Socal still needs more Single family homes, and any decent home at a decent price will get bought almost as soon as it hits the market in most of SD and TV anyway (maybe not some places like antelope Valley or whatever) and that will keep the market more or less level (or at least at about cost to produce) for a while yet.
But five or six years from now well you guess.[/quote]
Or to put this another way,
For single Family homes in most of Socal, there is enough pent up demand (at the right price = mortgage at about cost to rent) ,
That IMO it almost does not matter how many homes go into foreclosure, they will be bought up almost as fast as they hit the market,
Just think about TV, about a year and a half ago, it just seemed overwhelming there were so many foreclosures , I mean the place was just flooded with them, but most got bought up a lot quicker than many expected.
Just something to think about.
I remember an article from a well known business magazine at that time that was saying Murrieta was number one city in the nation in home resale’s due to foreclosure sales, Temecula was number three.
And these are not really that big of cities .
October 1, 2009 at 2:50 PM #463458Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]In my view this shadow inventory is at least part urban legend part truth,
The truth is that yes there are still a lot of homes that will sell under some sort of distress sale category and that will continue to depress the market some.
The other part is that Socal still needs more Single family homes, and any decent home at a decent price will get bought almost as soon as it hits the market in most of SD and TV anyway (maybe not some places like antelope Valley or whatever) and that will keep the market more or less level (or at least at about cost to produce) for a while yet.
But five or six years from now well you guess.[/quote]
Or to put this another way,
For single Family homes in most of Socal, there is enough pent up demand (at the right price = mortgage at about cost to rent) ,
That IMO it almost does not matter how many homes go into foreclosure, they will be bought up almost as fast as they hit the market,
Just think about TV, about a year and a half ago, it just seemed overwhelming there were so many foreclosures , I mean the place was just flooded with them, but most got bought up a lot quicker than many expected.
Just something to think about.
I remember an article from a well known business magazine at that time that was saying Murrieta was number one city in the nation in home resale’s due to foreclosure sales, Temecula was number three.
And these are not really that big of cities .
October 1, 2009 at 2:52 PM #462648sdrealtor
ParticipantShort sales arent shadow inventory when they are on the market. As for the most respected sources of inventory, they are all crap as far as I can tell. Realtytrac way over reports in SD. I look at their data and see a very high percentage that have already been resolved.
I have no rose colored glasses nor am I a NAR pimp. I have real feet on the street and see what goes on daily. Banks rarely file NOD’s (that i have seen) and let them sit for 18 months. Once its filed they are moving on it and only stop if there is a loan mod, short sale or legal action in process.
The pain is in the areas where people cant afford in lower income areas while the stable established neighborhoods are looking very strong. For example, in my neighborhood of 1100 homes there is exactly 1 on the market. That is 0.1%. The vast majority in the nicer parts of the county can afford their homes. Sure there will be exceptions but they are exactly that…exceptions. Ironically, I just got an offer on a short sale listing for a condo I have in Central San Diego. Turns out it came from someone who lives 2 blocks away from me. The condo is about 180K. They sent proof of funds via a money market statement with $500K in it.
People wonder who can afford Carmel Valley prices. I just picked up the local CV paper and was reading about their Pop Warner league. The 3 teams there are coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett. Just an anecdote but thats an example of who lives down there.
I’m not saying we are booming or even turning around but time and again your doomsday prognostications have fallen flat . I find it charming that you pop up trying to mock me time and again while I have a well documented track record of public predictions that have been spot on over the last 3 years based upon my man in the street perspective. In contrast you have a public track record of demennted musings……
October 1, 2009 at 2:52 PM #462842ParticipantShort sales arent shadow inventory when they are on the market. As for the most respected sources of inventory, they are all crap as far as I can tell. Realtytrac way over reports in SD. I look at their data and see a very high percentage that have already been resolved.
I have no rose colored glasses nor am I a NAR pimp. I have real feet on the street and see what goes on daily. Banks rarely file NOD’s (that i have seen) and let them sit for 18 months. Once its filed they are moving on it and only stop if there is a loan mod, short sale or legal action in process.
The pain is in the areas where people cant afford in lower income areas while the stable established neighborhoods are looking very strong. For example, in my neighborhood of 1100 homes there is exactly 1 on the market. That is 0.1%. The vast majority in the nicer parts of the county can afford their homes. Sure there will be exceptions but they are exactly that…exceptions. Ironically, I just got an offer on a short sale listing for a condo I have in Central San Diego. Turns out it came from someone who lives 2 blocks away from me. The condo is about 180K. They sent proof of funds via a money market statement with $500K in it.
People wonder who can afford Carmel Valley prices. I just picked up the local CV paper and was reading about their Pop Warner league. The 3 teams there are coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett. Just an anecdote but thats an example of who lives down there.
I’m not saying we are booming or even turning around but time and again your doomsday prognostications have fallen flat . I find it charming that you pop up trying to mock me time and again while I have a well documented track record of public predictions that have been spot on over the last 3 years based upon my man in the street perspective. In contrast you have a public track record of demennted musings……
October 1, 2009 at 2:52 PM #463186ParticipantShort sales arent shadow inventory when they are on the market. As for the most respected sources of inventory, they are all crap as far as I can tell. Realtytrac way over reports in SD. I look at their data and see a very high percentage that have already been resolved.
I have no rose colored glasses nor am I a NAR pimp. I have real feet on the street and see what goes on daily. Banks rarely file NOD’s (that i have seen) and let them sit for 18 months. Once its filed they are moving on it and only stop if there is a loan mod, short sale or legal action in process.
The pain is in the areas where people cant afford in lower income areas while the stable established neighborhoods are looking very strong. For example, in my neighborhood of 1100 homes there is exactly 1 on the market. That is 0.1%. The vast majority in the nicer parts of the county can afford their homes. Sure there will be exceptions but they are exactly that…exceptions. Ironically, I just got an offer on a short sale listing for a condo I have in Central San Diego. Turns out it came from someone who lives 2 blocks away from me. The condo is about 180K. They sent proof of funds via a money market statement with $500K in it.
People wonder who can afford Carmel Valley prices. I just picked up the local CV paper and was reading about their Pop Warner league. The 3 teams there are coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett. Just an anecdote but thats an example of who lives down there.
I’m not saying we are booming or even turning around but time and again your doomsday prognostications have fallen flat . I find it charming that you pop up trying to mock me time and again while I have a well documented track record of public predictions that have been spot on over the last 3 years based upon my man in the street perspective. In contrast you have a public track record of demennted musings……
October 1, 2009 at 2:52 PM #463259ParticipantShort sales arent shadow inventory when they are on the market. As for the most respected sources of inventory, they are all crap as far as I can tell. Realtytrac way over reports in SD. I look at their data and see a very high percentage that have already been resolved.
I have no rose colored glasses nor am I a NAR pimp. I have real feet on the street and see what goes on daily. Banks rarely file NOD’s (that i have seen) and let them sit for 18 months. Once its filed they are moving on it and only stop if there is a loan mod, short sale or legal action in process.
The pain is in the areas where people cant afford in lower income areas while the stable established neighborhoods are looking very strong. For example, in my neighborhood of 1100 homes there is exactly 1 on the market. That is 0.1%. The vast majority in the nicer parts of the county can afford their homes. Sure there will be exceptions but they are exactly that…exceptions. Ironically, I just got an offer on a short sale listing for a condo I have in Central San Diego. Turns out it came from someone who lives 2 blocks away from me. The condo is about 180K. They sent proof of funds via a money market statement with $500K in it.
People wonder who can afford Carmel Valley prices. I just picked up the local CV paper and was reading about their Pop Warner league. The 3 teams there are coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett. Just an anecdote but thats an example of who lives down there.
I’m not saying we are booming or even turning around but time and again your doomsday prognostications have fallen flat . I find it charming that you pop up trying to mock me time and again while I have a well documented track record of public predictions that have been spot on over the last 3 years based upon my man in the street perspective. In contrast you have a public track record of demennted musings……
October 1, 2009 at 2:52 PM #463463ParticipantShort sales arent shadow inventory when they are on the market. As for the most respected sources of inventory, they are all crap as far as I can tell. Realtytrac way over reports in SD. I look at their data and see a very high percentage that have already been resolved.
I have no rose colored glasses nor am I a NAR pimp. I have real feet on the street and see what goes on daily. Banks rarely file NOD’s (that i have seen) and let them sit for 18 months. Once its filed they are moving on it and only stop if there is a loan mod, short sale or legal action in process.
The pain is in the areas where people cant afford in lower income areas while the stable established neighborhoods are looking very strong. For example, in my neighborhood of 1100 homes there is exactly 1 on the market. That is 0.1%. The vast majority in the nicer parts of the county can afford their homes. Sure there will be exceptions but they are exactly that…exceptions. Ironically, I just got an offer on a short sale listing for a condo I have in Central San Diego. Turns out it came from someone who lives 2 blocks away from me. The condo is about 180K. They sent proof of funds via a money market statement with $500K in it.
People wonder who can afford Carmel Valley prices. I just picked up the local CV paper and was reading about their Pop Warner league. The 3 teams there are coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett. Just an anecdote but thats an example of who lives down there.
I’m not saying we are booming or even turning around but time and again your doomsday prognostications have fallen flat . I find it charming that you pop up trying to mock me time and again while I have a well documented track record of public predictions that have been spot on over the last 3 years based upon my man in the street perspective. In contrast you have a public track record of demennted musings……
October 1, 2009 at 3:41 PM #462658sdcellar
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]There are also a ton of people who stopped paying on their 2nds but kept their 1st current.[/quote]This makes a lot of sense and haven’t really heard this theory before. At the end of the day, a lot of people just want to go on living their life as they have. If they can fake it by “forgetting” about the 2nd, that certainly helps. Certainly helps the rent/buy math and you gotta pay to live somewhere.
October 1, 2009 at 3:41 PM #462852Participant[quote=sdrealtor]There are also a ton of people who stopped paying on their 2nds but kept their 1st current.[/quote]This makes a lot of sense and haven’t really heard this theory before. At the end of the day, a lot of people just want to go on living their life as they have. If they can fake it by “forgetting” about the 2nd, that certainly helps. Certainly helps the rent/buy math and you gotta pay to live somewhere.
October 1, 2009 at 3:41 PM #463196Participant[quote=sdrealtor]There are also a ton of people who stopped paying on their 2nds but kept their 1st current.[/quote]This makes a lot of sense and haven’t really heard this theory before. At the end of the day, a lot of people just want to go on living their life as they have. If they can fake it by “forgetting” about the 2nd, that certainly helps. Certainly helps the rent/buy math and you gotta pay to live somewhere.
October 1, 2009 at 3:41 PM #463269Participant[quote=sdrealtor]There are also a ton of people who stopped paying on their 2nds but kept their 1st current.[/quote]This makes a lot of sense and haven’t really heard this theory before. At the end of the day, a lot of people just want to go on living their life as they have. If they can fake it by “forgetting” about the 2nd, that certainly helps. Certainly helps the rent/buy math and you gotta pay to live somewhere.
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