The often asked question, when will housing bottom?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I took a crap this morning and asked and it said “not anytime soon” I think my crap knows more about the future than this author or anyone that posts predictions here.

That’s interesting, but what I really want to know is if you have made any progress predicting when your next crap will be. Once you get that down, maybe you’ll understand this whole housing market prediction thingy. Gotta go …. in … 5 …4 ….3 ….2 …. 1.

AHhhhhhhhhh.

[cr]

It cracks me up whenever someone predicts how long the downturn will last, Alex comes out of the closet with senseless comments insinuating that our data-based estimations are as out of whack as he is.

I personally think 2012-2013 is conservative.

Both of the last downturns went as far, and long as they went up. We’ve been going up since 1996, around 200%.

People think it’s insane that prices could drop 50% or more, but it’s just as insane that they went up as much as they did. They fell that far and for that long before, why wouldn’t they now? Particularly with retiring baby-boomers as TC said (haven’t seen you in a while BTW Cow, wb) the tightnened lending standards, the $1 Trillion in loans still to reset, and the coming recession.

7-10 years, 2000-2001 prices.

Keep staring at your crap Alex.

[cr]

It cracks me up whenever someone predicts how long the downturn will last, Alex comes out of the closet with senseless comments insinuating that our data-based estimations are as out of whack as he is.

I personally think 2012-2013 is conservative.

Both of the last downturns went as far, and long as they went up. We’ve been going up since 1996, around 200%.

People think it’s insane that prices could drop 50% or more, but it’s just as insane that they went up as much as they did. They fell that far and for that long before, why wouldn’t they now? Particularly with retiring baby-boomers as TC said (haven’t seen you in a while BTW Cow, wb) the tightnened lending standards, the $1 Trillion in loans still to reset, and the coming recession.

7-10 years, 2000-2001 prices.

Keep staring at your crap Alex.

[cr]

It cracks me up whenever someone predicts how long the downturn will last, Alex comes out of the closet with senseless comments insinuating that our data-based estimations are as out of whack as he is.

I personally think 2012-2013 is conservative.

Both of the last downturns went as far, and long as they went up. We’ve been going up since 1996, around 200%.

People think it’s insane that prices could drop 50% or more, but it’s just as insane that they went up as much as they did. They fell that far and for that long before, why wouldn’t they now? Particularly with retiring baby-boomers as TC said (haven’t seen you in a while BTW Cow, wb) the tightnened lending standards, the $1 Trillion in loans still to reset, and the coming recession.

7-10 years, 2000-2001 prices.

Keep staring at your crap Alex.

[cr]

It cracks me up whenever someone predicts how long the downturn will last, Alex comes out of the closet with senseless comments insinuating that our data-based estimations are as out of whack as he is.

I personally think 2012-2013 is conservative.

Both of the last downturns went as far, and long as they went up. We’ve been going up since 1996, around 200%.

People think it’s insane that prices could drop 50% or more, but it’s just as insane that they went up as much as they did. They fell that far and for that long before, why wouldn’t they now? Particularly with retiring baby-boomers as TC said (haven’t seen you in a while BTW Cow, wb) the tightnened lending standards, the $1 Trillion in loans still to reset, and the coming recession.

7-10 years, 2000-2001 prices.

Keep staring at your crap Alex.

[cr]

It cracks me up whenever someone predicts how long the downturn will last, Alex comes out of the closet with senseless comments insinuating that our data-based estimations are as out of whack as he is.

I personally think 2012-2013 is conservative.

Both of the last downturns went as far, and long as they went up. We’ve been going up since 1996, around 200%.

People think it’s insane that prices could drop 50% or more, but it’s just as insane that they went up as much as they did. They fell that far and for that long before, why wouldn’t they now? Particularly with retiring baby-boomers as TC said (haven’t seen you in a while BTW Cow, wb) the tightnened lending standards, the $1 Trillion in loans still to reset, and the coming recession.

7-10 years, 2000-2001 prices.

Keep staring at your crap Alex.

[Anonymous]

“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”

No, I’d say 2010-2011 is when we’re gonna see 1998-1999 prices again.

[Anonymous]

“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”

No, I’d say 2010-2011 is when we’re gonna see 1998-1999 prices again.

[Anonymous]

“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”

No, I’d say 2010-2011 is when we’re gonna see 1998-1999 prices again.

[Anonymous]

“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”

No, I’d say 2010-2011 is when we’re gonna see 1998-1999 prices again.

[Anonymous]

“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”

No, I’d say 2010-2011 is when we’re gonna see 1998-1999 prices again.

[Eugene]

Here’s my theory.

Typical deflation period of a speculative bubble is 3 years. That’s approximately how long it took NASDAQ to deflate (Feb ’00 to Sep ’02). That’s how long it took DOW to deflate in the beginning of the Great Depression (Jul ’29 to Apr ’32).

Entry-level houses don’t form extended bottoms. People get married and have kids all the time. Demand from new homebuyers is always there, as long as the price is right. Unlike in the 90’s, we’ll have a lot of must-sell supply from all the foreclosures. Low tier will quickly fall to 2001-2002 prices and switch to modest growth as soon as early 2009, in accordance with the 3-year rule.

Coastal/move-up market is in more trouble. Demand for move-up houses will progressively get worse. People who bought in 2003 and later will not be in any shape to move up. Many will get foreclosed upon and end up locked out of the housing market for a few years. In 2009-2011, 5/1 and neg-am ARM resets will flush the remaining holdouts.

Massive numbers of foreclosures will occur throughout 2008. After the foreclosure, you have to wait 3 years before you can get a FHA loan. In 2011 we will see a surge in demand from people who abandoned their houses in 2008 and chose to rent rather than leave the state.

[Eugene]

Here’s my theory.

Typical deflation period of a speculative bubble is 3 years. That’s approximately how long it took NASDAQ to deflate (Feb ’00 to Sep ’02). That’s how long it took DOW to deflate in the beginning of the Great Depression (Jul ’29 to Apr ’32).

Entry-level houses don’t form extended bottoms. People get married and have kids all the time. Demand from new homebuyers is always there, as long as the price is right. Unlike in the 90’s, we’ll have a lot of must-sell supply from all the foreclosures. Low tier will quickly fall to 2001-2002 prices and switch to modest growth as soon as early 2009, in accordance with the 3-year rule.

Coastal/move-up market is in more trouble. Demand for move-up houses will progressively get worse. People who bought in 2003 and later will not be in any shape to move up. Many will get foreclosed upon and end up locked out of the housing market for a few years. In 2009-2011, 5/1 and neg-am ARM resets will flush the remaining holdouts.

Massive numbers of foreclosures will occur throughout 2008. After the foreclosure, you have to wait 3 years before you can get a FHA loan. In 2011 we will see a surge in demand from people who abandoned their houses in 2008 and chose to rent rather than leave the state.

[Eugene]

Here’s my theory.

Typical deflation period of a speculative bubble is 3 years. That’s approximately how long it took NASDAQ to deflate (Feb ’00 to Sep ’02). That’s how long it took DOW to deflate in the beginning of the Great Depression (Jul ’29 to Apr ’32).

Entry-level houses don’t form extended bottoms. People get married and have kids all the time. Demand from new homebuyers is always there, as long as the price is right. Unlike in the 90’s, we’ll have a lot of must-sell supply from all the foreclosures. Low tier will quickly fall to 2001-2002 prices and switch to modest growth as soon as early 2009, in accordance with the 3-year rule.

Coastal/move-up market is in more trouble. Demand for move-up houses will progressively get worse. People who bought in 2003 and later will not be in any shape to move up. Many will get foreclosed upon and end up locked out of the housing market for a few years. In 2009-2011, 5/1 and neg-am ARM resets will flush the remaining holdouts.

Massive numbers of foreclosures will occur throughout 2008. After the foreclosure, you have to wait 3 years before you can get a FHA loan. In 2011 we will see a surge in demand from people who abandoned their houses in 2008 and chose to rent rather than leave the state.

[Eugene]

Here’s my theory.

Typical deflation period of a speculative bubble is 3 years. That’s approximately how long it took NASDAQ to deflate (Feb ’00 to Sep ’02). That’s how long it took DOW to deflate in the beginning of the Great Depression (Jul ’29 to Apr ’32).

Entry-level houses don’t form extended bottoms. People get married and have kids all the time. Demand from new homebuyers is always there, as long as the price is right. Unlike in the 90’s, we’ll have a lot of must-sell supply from all the foreclosures. Low tier will quickly fall to 2001-2002 prices and switch to modest growth as soon as early 2009, in accordance with the 3-year rule.

Coastal/move-up market is in more trouble. Demand for move-up houses will progressively get worse. People who bought in 2003 and later will not be in any shape to move up. Many will get foreclosed upon and end up locked out of the housing market for a few years. In 2009-2011, 5/1 and neg-am ARM resets will flush the remaining holdouts.

Massive numbers of foreclosures will occur throughout 2008. After the foreclosure, you have to wait 3 years before you can get a FHA loan. In 2011 we will see a surge in demand from people who abandoned their houses in 2008 and chose to rent rather than leave the state.

[Author]

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