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July 27, 2008 at 9:23 AM #247931July 27, 2008 at 9:41 AM #247732
ucodegen
ParticipantThe whole problem is that you added info to the system which altered the game. It also causes the probability calcs to be completely reshuffled. You can’t carry over probability calcs when info gets added to the system. Example:
I have 10 doors. The prize is behind one: The odds of winning are 10%
I then open the door with the prize and then close it.
Are the odds of winning 10% per door, or 100% on the door I opened and then closed with 0% everywhere else. The information resets the calcs.July 27, 2008 at 9:41 AM #247888ucodegen
ParticipantThe whole problem is that you added info to the system which altered the game. It also causes the probability calcs to be completely reshuffled. You can’t carry over probability calcs when info gets added to the system. Example:
I have 10 doors. The prize is behind one: The odds of winning are 10%
I then open the door with the prize and then close it.
Are the odds of winning 10% per door, or 100% on the door I opened and then closed with 0% everywhere else. The information resets the calcs.July 27, 2008 at 9:41 AM #247894ucodegen
ParticipantThe whole problem is that you added info to the system which altered the game. It also causes the probability calcs to be completely reshuffled. You can’t carry over probability calcs when info gets added to the system. Example:
I have 10 doors. The prize is behind one: The odds of winning are 10%
I then open the door with the prize and then close it.
Are the odds of winning 10% per door, or 100% on the door I opened and then closed with 0% everywhere else. The information resets the calcs.July 27, 2008 at 9:41 AM #247951ucodegen
ParticipantThe whole problem is that you added info to the system which altered the game. It also causes the probability calcs to be completely reshuffled. You can’t carry over probability calcs when info gets added to the system. Example:
I have 10 doors. The prize is behind one: The odds of winning are 10%
I then open the door with the prize and then close it.
Are the odds of winning 10% per door, or 100% on the door I opened and then closed with 0% everywhere else. The information resets the calcs.July 27, 2008 at 9:41 AM #247956ucodegen
ParticipantThe whole problem is that you added info to the system which altered the game. It also causes the probability calcs to be completely reshuffled. You can’t carry over probability calcs when info gets added to the system. Example:
I have 10 doors. The prize is behind one: The odds of winning are 10%
I then open the door with the prize and then close it.
Are the odds of winning 10% per door, or 100% on the door I opened and then closed with 0% everywhere else. The information resets the calcs.July 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM #247723Eugene
Participantomg…
on the initial selection: 1 correct out of 3, making the odds 33% that any particular choice is right.
Exactly. So why do you think that the chance to have a car behind that door suddenly goes up from 33% to 50% when game show host reveals the goat?
Let’s call the initial choice door #1.
If you do this game 100 times, in 33 cases the car will be behind door #1, in 67 cases it will be behind door #2 or #3.
If game show host always shows you the goat and never misses, he knows which door has the goat behind it. You will have 33 cases where the car is behind #1 and 67 cases when the car is behind the only other door that hasn’t been opened yet. Chance to win when switching: 67/100.
If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.
July 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM #247879Eugene
Participantomg…
on the initial selection: 1 correct out of 3, making the odds 33% that any particular choice is right.
Exactly. So why do you think that the chance to have a car behind that door suddenly goes up from 33% to 50% when game show host reveals the goat?
Let’s call the initial choice door #1.
If you do this game 100 times, in 33 cases the car will be behind door #1, in 67 cases it will be behind door #2 or #3.
If game show host always shows you the goat and never misses, he knows which door has the goat behind it. You will have 33 cases where the car is behind #1 and 67 cases when the car is behind the only other door that hasn’t been opened yet. Chance to win when switching: 67/100.
If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.
July 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM #247883Eugene
Participantomg…
on the initial selection: 1 correct out of 3, making the odds 33% that any particular choice is right.
Exactly. So why do you think that the chance to have a car behind that door suddenly goes up from 33% to 50% when game show host reveals the goat?
Let’s call the initial choice door #1.
If you do this game 100 times, in 33 cases the car will be behind door #1, in 67 cases it will be behind door #2 or #3.
If game show host always shows you the goat and never misses, he knows which door has the goat behind it. You will have 33 cases where the car is behind #1 and 67 cases when the car is behind the only other door that hasn’t been opened yet. Chance to win when switching: 67/100.
If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.
July 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM #247941Eugene
Participantomg…
on the initial selection: 1 correct out of 3, making the odds 33% that any particular choice is right.
Exactly. So why do you think that the chance to have a car behind that door suddenly goes up from 33% to 50% when game show host reveals the goat?
Let’s call the initial choice door #1.
If you do this game 100 times, in 33 cases the car will be behind door #1, in 67 cases it will be behind door #2 or #3.
If game show host always shows you the goat and never misses, he knows which door has the goat behind it. You will have 33 cases where the car is behind #1 and 67 cases when the car is behind the only other door that hasn’t been opened yet. Chance to win when switching: 67/100.
If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.
July 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM #247946Eugene
Participantomg…
on the initial selection: 1 correct out of 3, making the odds 33% that any particular choice is right.
Exactly. So why do you think that the chance to have a car behind that door suddenly goes up from 33% to 50% when game show host reveals the goat?
Let’s call the initial choice door #1.
If you do this game 100 times, in 33 cases the car will be behind door #1, in 67 cases it will be behind door #2 or #3.
If game show host always shows you the goat and never misses, he knows which door has the goat behind it. You will have 33 cases where the car is behind #1 and 67 cases when the car is behind the only other door that hasn’t been opened yet. Chance to win when switching: 67/100.
If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.
July 27, 2008 at 9:44 AM #247743jficquette
ParticipantUcodegen,
I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.
John
July 27, 2008 at 9:44 AM #247897jficquette
ParticipantUcodegen,
I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.
John
July 27, 2008 at 9:44 AM #247904jficquette
ParticipantUcodegen,
I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.
John
July 27, 2008 at 9:44 AM #247961jficquette
ParticipantUcodegen,
I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.
John
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