The Economy is a Lie, too

[Rt.66]

Timely article on Mish’s site today:

Following the Footsteps of Japan
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/following-footsteps-of-japan.html

I wonder how many on this forum believe forms of deflation will be with us for a long time. How many believe that housing will still be in the toilet in ten years?

Bankers have done such a wonderful job convincing people to voluntarily tie a 30 year debt stone around their neck. The bidding wars are fascinating; right when we have an upper hand on the banker debt machine people start giving them power again in hopes they will “win the bidding war” and somehow be able to sell that REO for a profit to someone else in the foreseeable future.
They are in for a BIG surprise.

[Rt.66]

Another fitting story for this thread:

BLS Jobs Numbers Contradict BLS Jobs Numbers

“Meanwhile, when we view the “statistically significant”job losses for August, we see that only 16 states reported a net total of job losses of 279,800.

Once again, I will repeat these figures to make sure the magnitude of this lie is not lost on people. In its aggregate report for August, the BLS claims only 216,000 jobs were lost. However, the state-by-state numbers for only 16 states exceeded that total by over 25% (279,800) – and one of those 16 states supposedly had an increase in employment.

Furthermore, of the states listed, only one of the five most-populous states was included: Texas. Thus, if we subtract those 16 states (less than 1/3 of the U.S.), we are left with 26 more states which reported job losses, only 7 states reporting increases – and most of the large-population states had yet to be added to that total. Given these demographics, it is a reasonable extrapolation to estimate that the complete state-by-state totals would have been nearly three times as large, or over 800,000 jobs lost.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/162862-bls-jobs-numbers-contradict-bls-jobs-numbers?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Another fitting story for this thread:

BLS Jobs Numbers Contradict BLS Jobs Numbers

“Meanwhile, when we view the “statistically significant”job losses for August, we see that only 16 states reported a net total of job losses of 279,800.

Once again, I will repeat these figures to make sure the magnitude of this lie is not lost on people. In its aggregate report for August, the BLS claims only 216,000 jobs were lost. However, the state-by-state numbers for only 16 states exceeded that total by over 25% (279,800) – and one of those 16 states supposedly had an increase in employment.

Furthermore, of the states listed, only one of the five most-populous states was included: Texas. Thus, if we subtract those 16 states (less than 1/3 of the U.S.), we are left with 26 more states which reported job losses, only 7 states reporting increases – and most of the large-population states had yet to be added to that total. Given these demographics, it is a reasonable extrapolation to estimate that the complete state-by-state totals would have been nearly three times as large, or over 800,000 jobs lost.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/162862-bls-jobs-numbers-contradict-bls-jobs-numbers?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Another fitting story for this thread:

BLS Jobs Numbers Contradict BLS Jobs Numbers

“Meanwhile, when we view the “statistically significant”job losses for August, we see that only 16 states reported a net total of job losses of 279,800.

Once again, I will repeat these figures to make sure the magnitude of this lie is not lost on people. In its aggregate report for August, the BLS claims only 216,000 jobs were lost. However, the state-by-state numbers for only 16 states exceeded that total by over 25% (279,800) – and one of those 16 states supposedly had an increase in employment.

Furthermore, of the states listed, only one of the five most-populous states was included: Texas. Thus, if we subtract those 16 states (less than 1/3 of the U.S.), we are left with 26 more states which reported job losses, only 7 states reporting increases – and most of the large-population states had yet to be added to that total. Given these demographics, it is a reasonable extrapolation to estimate that the complete state-by-state totals would have been nearly three times as large, or over 800,000 jobs lost.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/162862-bls-jobs-numbers-contradict-bls-jobs-numbers?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Another fitting story for this thread:

BLS Jobs Numbers Contradict BLS Jobs Numbers

“Meanwhile, when we view the “statistically significant”job losses for August, we see that only 16 states reported a net total of job losses of 279,800.

Once again, I will repeat these figures to make sure the magnitude of this lie is not lost on people. In its aggregate report for August, the BLS claims only 216,000 jobs were lost. However, the state-by-state numbers for only 16 states exceeded that total by over 25% (279,800) – and one of those 16 states supposedly had an increase in employment.

Furthermore, of the states listed, only one of the five most-populous states was included: Texas. Thus, if we subtract those 16 states (less than 1/3 of the U.S.), we are left with 26 more states which reported job losses, only 7 states reporting increases – and most of the large-population states had yet to be added to that total. Given these demographics, it is a reasonable extrapolation to estimate that the complete state-by-state totals would have been nearly three times as large, or over 800,000 jobs lost.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/162862-bls-jobs-numbers-contradict-bls-jobs-numbers?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Another fitting story for this thread:

BLS Jobs Numbers Contradict BLS Jobs Numbers

“Meanwhile, when we view the “statistically significant”job losses for August, we see that only 16 states reported a net total of job losses of 279,800.

Once again, I will repeat these figures to make sure the magnitude of this lie is not lost on people. In its aggregate report for August, the BLS claims only 216,000 jobs were lost. However, the state-by-state numbers for only 16 states exceeded that total by over 25% (279,800) – and one of those 16 states supposedly had an increase in employment.

Furthermore, of the states listed, only one of the five most-populous states was included: Texas. Thus, if we subtract those 16 states (less than 1/3 of the U.S.), we are left with 26 more states which reported job losses, only 7 states reporting increases – and most of the large-population states had yet to be added to that total. Given these demographics, it is a reasonable extrapolation to estimate that the complete state-by-state totals would have been nearly three times as large, or over 800,000 jobs lost.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/162862-bls-jobs-numbers-contradict-bls-jobs-numbers?ref=patrick.net

[4plexowner]

“I wonder how many on this forum believe forms of deflation will be with us for a long time.”

one of the unique aspects of the current economic downturn is that world economies are more synchronized at this point than they have ever been in the past

if the bankers are unable to kick the can down the road for awhile longer we are in for a long, deep worldwide correction – back to 1982 levels? overshoot even deeper?

some people think “it’s just time” for a major economic correction:

The Dark Years are here
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/newsletter/?newsletter=20
“THE DARK YEARS

In the next few months we will see the start of the Dark Years. For the first time in the history of the world there will be a synchronised downturn affecting all nations (although some a lot worse than others).This is the culmination of the world and especially the Western world, living above its means for decades in a mania of credit bubbles, asset bubbles, real estate bubbles as well as excesses leading to decadence and a society with very weak moral and ethical values. (Of course no society recognises this as it is happening but only afterwards). Governments have fuelled this process by printing unlimited amounts of paper thus destroying the money and purchasing power of most nations.

The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different type of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.

How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle. According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval. This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.

All of this is not good news and we hope that we and Howe are wrong regarding the severity and length of this crisis. But we fear that we are both right. We must stress again that never previously has the the whole world entered a downturn simultaneously in such a fragile state both financially and economically which is why the Dark Years are likely to be so devastating and long lasting.”

~

It’s Just Time
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

~

some of the cycle theories suggest that we are due for a significant correction – in Kondratieff cycles we are either in or heading into the Winter phase of the cycle – in Elliott Wave theory we are due for a downturn of either Supercycle or Grand Supercycle magnitude (if I remember the terminology correctly)

[4plexowner]

“I wonder how many on this forum believe forms of deflation will be with us for a long time.”

one of the unique aspects of the current economic downturn is that world economies are more synchronized at this point than they have ever been in the past

if the bankers are unable to kick the can down the road for awhile longer we are in for a long, deep worldwide correction – back to 1982 levels? overshoot even deeper?

some people think “it’s just time” for a major economic correction:

The Dark Years are here
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/newsletter/?newsletter=20
“THE DARK YEARS

In the next few months we will see the start of the Dark Years. For the first time in the history of the world there will be a synchronised downturn affecting all nations (although some a lot worse than others).This is the culmination of the world and especially the Western world, living above its means for decades in a mania of credit bubbles, asset bubbles, real estate bubbles as well as excesses leading to decadence and a society with very weak moral and ethical values. (Of course no society recognises this as it is happening but only afterwards). Governments have fuelled this process by printing unlimited amounts of paper thus destroying the money and purchasing power of most nations.

The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different type of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.

How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle. According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval. This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.

All of this is not good news and we hope that we and Howe are wrong regarding the severity and length of this crisis. But we fear that we are both right. We must stress again that never previously has the the whole world entered a downturn simultaneously in such a fragile state both financially and economically which is why the Dark Years are likely to be so devastating and long lasting.”

~

It’s Just Time
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

~

some of the cycle theories suggest that we are due for a significant correction – in Kondratieff cycles we are either in or heading into the Winter phase of the cycle – in Elliott Wave theory we are due for a downturn of either Supercycle or Grand Supercycle magnitude (if I remember the terminology correctly)

[4plexowner]

“I wonder how many on this forum believe forms of deflation will be with us for a long time.”

one of the unique aspects of the current economic downturn is that world economies are more synchronized at this point than they have ever been in the past

if the bankers are unable to kick the can down the road for awhile longer we are in for a long, deep worldwide correction – back to 1982 levels? overshoot even deeper?

some people think “it’s just time” for a major economic correction:

The Dark Years are here
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/newsletter/?newsletter=20
“THE DARK YEARS

In the next few months we will see the start of the Dark Years. For the first time in the history of the world there will be a synchronised downturn affecting all nations (although some a lot worse than others).This is the culmination of the world and especially the Western world, living above its means for decades in a mania of credit bubbles, asset bubbles, real estate bubbles as well as excesses leading to decadence and a society with very weak moral and ethical values. (Of course no society recognises this as it is happening but only afterwards). Governments have fuelled this process by printing unlimited amounts of paper thus destroying the money and purchasing power of most nations.

The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different type of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.

How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle. According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval. This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.

All of this is not good news and we hope that we and Howe are wrong regarding the severity and length of this crisis. But we fear that we are both right. We must stress again that never previously has the the whole world entered a downturn simultaneously in such a fragile state both financially and economically which is why the Dark Years are likely to be so devastating and long lasting.”

~

It’s Just Time
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

~

some of the cycle theories suggest that we are due for a significant correction – in Kondratieff cycles we are either in or heading into the Winter phase of the cycle – in Elliott Wave theory we are due for a downturn of either Supercycle or Grand Supercycle magnitude (if I remember the terminology correctly)

[4plexowner]

“I wonder how many on this forum believe forms of deflation will be with us for a long time.”

one of the unique aspects of the current economic downturn is that world economies are more synchronized at this point than they have ever been in the past

if the bankers are unable to kick the can down the road for awhile longer we are in for a long, deep worldwide correction – back to 1982 levels? overshoot even deeper?

some people think “it’s just time” for a major economic correction:

The Dark Years are here
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/newsletter/?newsletter=20
“THE DARK YEARS

In the next few months we will see the start of the Dark Years. For the first time in the history of the world there will be a synchronised downturn affecting all nations (although some a lot worse than others).This is the culmination of the world and especially the Western world, living above its means for decades in a mania of credit bubbles, asset bubbles, real estate bubbles as well as excesses leading to decadence and a society with very weak moral and ethical values. (Of course no society recognises this as it is happening but only afterwards). Governments have fuelled this process by printing unlimited amounts of paper thus destroying the money and purchasing power of most nations.

The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different type of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.

How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle. According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval. This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.

All of this is not good news and we hope that we and Howe are wrong regarding the severity and length of this crisis. But we fear that we are both right. We must stress again that never previously has the the whole world entered a downturn simultaneously in such a fragile state both financially and economically which is why the Dark Years are likely to be so devastating and long lasting.”

~

It’s Just Time
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

~

some of the cycle theories suggest that we are due for a significant correction – in Kondratieff cycles we are either in or heading into the Winter phase of the cycle – in Elliott Wave theory we are due for a downturn of either Supercycle or Grand Supercycle magnitude (if I remember the terminology correctly)

[4plexowner]

“I wonder how many on this forum believe forms of deflation will be with us for a long time.”

one of the unique aspects of the current economic downturn is that world economies are more synchronized at this point than they have ever been in the past

if the bankers are unable to kick the can down the road for awhile longer we are in for a long, deep worldwide correction – back to 1982 levels? overshoot even deeper?

some people think “it’s just time” for a major economic correction:

The Dark Years are here
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/newsletter/?newsletter=20
“THE DARK YEARS

In the next few months we will see the start of the Dark Years. For the first time in the history of the world there will be a synchronised downturn affecting all nations (although some a lot worse than others).This is the culmination of the world and especially the Western world, living above its means for decades in a mania of credit bubbles, asset bubbles, real estate bubbles as well as excesses leading to decadence and a society with very weak moral and ethical values. (Of course no society recognises this as it is happening but only afterwards). Governments have fuelled this process by printing unlimited amounts of paper thus destroying the money and purchasing power of most nations.

The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different type of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.

How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle. According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval. This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.

All of this is not good news and we hope that we and Howe are wrong regarding the severity and length of this crisis. But we fear that we are both right. We must stress again that never previously has the the whole world entered a downturn simultaneously in such a fragile state both financially and economically which is why the Dark Years are likely to be so devastating and long lasting.”

~

It’s Just Time
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

~

some of the cycle theories suggest that we are due for a significant correction – in Kondratieff cycles we are either in or heading into the Winter phase of the cycle – in Elliott Wave theory we are due for a downturn of either Supercycle or Grand Supercycle magnitude (if I remember the terminology correctly)

[Rt.66]

Good find with that article 4plex.

I look around and ask myself where are the well paying jobs going to come from? Consumer debt is at all time highs, the major driver to our economy is too far in debt and too many without jobs at all, let alone good jobs.

Our leaders seem to have no plan for future job growth and with the consumer tapped out and debt of every kind up to our eyeballs, another credit driven bubble at the consumer level seems out of the question.

Lot’s of smart people are calling for sustained high employment for a very long time and falling wages (supply and demand will do that).

Love the cycle theory though.

What’s would a deflation based, 2025 price prediction for the SD median home price look like?

I know San Diego is preferable to Florida in many ways, yet for me that is one of the most comparable markets (weather, recreation, beaches, life style) the devastation in the RE market there is my precurser to SD prices (with a SD premium)

[Rt.66]

Good find with that article 4plex.

I look around and ask myself where are the well paying jobs going to come from? Consumer debt is at all time highs, the major driver to our economy is too far in debt and too many without jobs at all, let alone good jobs.

Our leaders seem to have no plan for future job growth and with the consumer tapped out and debt of every kind up to our eyeballs, another credit driven bubble at the consumer level seems out of the question.

Lot’s of smart people are calling for sustained high employment for a very long time and falling wages (supply and demand will do that).

Love the cycle theory though.

What’s would a deflation based, 2025 price prediction for the SD median home price look like?

I know San Diego is preferable to Florida in many ways, yet for me that is one of the most comparable markets (weather, recreation, beaches, life style) the devastation in the RE market there is my precurser to SD prices (with a SD premium)

[Rt.66]

Good find with that article 4plex.

I look around and ask myself where are the well paying jobs going to come from? Consumer debt is at all time highs, the major driver to our economy is too far in debt and too many without jobs at all, let alone good jobs.

Our leaders seem to have no plan for future job growth and with the consumer tapped out and debt of every kind up to our eyeballs, another credit driven bubble at the consumer level seems out of the question.

Lot’s of smart people are calling for sustained high employment for a very long time and falling wages (supply and demand will do that).

Love the cycle theory though.

What’s would a deflation based, 2025 price prediction for the SD median home price look like?

I know San Diego is preferable to Florida in many ways, yet for me that is one of the most comparable markets (weather, recreation, beaches, life style) the devastation in the RE market there is my precurser to SD prices (with a SD premium)

[Rt.66]

Good find with that article 4plex.

I look around and ask myself where are the well paying jobs going to come from? Consumer debt is at all time highs, the major driver to our economy is too far in debt and too many without jobs at all, let alone good jobs.

Our leaders seem to have no plan for future job growth and with the consumer tapped out and debt of every kind up to our eyeballs, another credit driven bubble at the consumer level seems out of the question.

Lot’s of smart people are calling for sustained high employment for a very long time and falling wages (supply and demand will do that).

Love the cycle theory though.

What’s would a deflation based, 2025 price prediction for the SD median home price look like?

I know San Diego is preferable to Florida in many ways, yet for me that is one of the most comparable markets (weather, recreation, beaches, life style) the devastation in the RE market there is my precurser to SD prices (with a SD premium)

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