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drunkle.
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June 18, 2007 at 8:47 AM #60066June 18, 2007 at 8:47 AM #60098
barnaby33ParticipantThe fact there are a lot of jobs there is no relevant. So does places like Irvine but homes in Irvine fail in comparison to Newport and home prices in Irvine do not affect prices in Newport.
The oppisite is true. Home prices in San Diego can have an effect though on Temecula and all other areas.
That makes no sense. If they are related one way then they are related both ways. SD cannot affect Temecula with out the converse being true.
Josh
June 18, 2007 at 9:38 AM #60106Bugs
ParticipantEscondido isn’t San Diego either, but it’s still connected. People live where they live mostly as a result of their employment. Temecula has very little local employment of the sort that supports making mortgage payments, which is why it is considered a bedroom community of the areas that do have employment. That includes the OC and San Diego, as well as L.A..
Actually, the traffic getting into Temecula is a lot worse to/from San Diego County than it is to/from Orange or LA Counties.
Inasmuch as increases in price work from the inside (relative to employment) to the outside and vice-versa for decreases, what happens right now in the outlying areas like Temecula and to a lesser extent Northern SD County is an early indicator of things to come in the central SD area. Rancho Bernardo, Scripps and other areas close to employment aren’t demonstrating the big decreases right now because of their proximity to employment. But they’re still connected and they are not immune to the larger trend. It’s happened before and it’s already happening now, albeit at a much reduced level compared to the more distant towns.
It’s all about alternatives and substitution. Temecula provides a lower priced alternative – most of those people would choose to live closer to work if they could afford it. Since they can’t they are compelled to live in an outlying area and pay their dues via commuting time.
The tourism angle is nothing new, but it means more to the people who work in those businesses; and most of those people are not part of the local homeowner population. If they own a home it most likely is in Temecula.
So Temecula’s performance is interesting not just from a trend watcher perspective, but also because it can fairly be called the shape of things to come for the more central areas here in SD County.
It’s already happening. Look at the trends all across the Hwy-78 corridor. The foreclosure and price reduction trends are lagging those of Riverside County but they’re still happening and it’s still spreading south.
It’s not different this time, it’s not different here, we don’t have more people moving in than moving out, and being on the coast will not provide immunity from an economic trend.
If you disagree, please show the data you’re using to support that opinion. “Everyone wants to live here” is an emotional plea most commonly employed by the REIC, not a thoughtful or supported conclusion that has any foundation in fact.
June 18, 2007 at 9:38 AM #60074ParticipantEscondido isn’t San Diego either, but it’s still connected. People live where they live mostly as a result of their employment. Temecula has very little local employment of the sort that supports making mortgage payments, which is why it is considered a bedroom community of the areas that do have employment. That includes the OC and San Diego, as well as L.A..
Actually, the traffic getting into Temecula is a lot worse to/from San Diego County than it is to/from Orange or LA Counties.
Inasmuch as increases in price work from the inside (relative to employment) to the outside and vice-versa for decreases, what happens right now in the outlying areas like Temecula and to a lesser extent Northern SD County is an early indicator of things to come in the central SD area. Rancho Bernardo, Scripps and other areas close to employment aren’t demonstrating the big decreases right now because of their proximity to employment. But they’re still connected and they are not immune to the larger trend. It’s happened before and it’s already happening now, albeit at a much reduced level compared to the more distant towns.
It’s all about alternatives and substitution. Temecula provides a lower priced alternative – most of those people would choose to live closer to work if they could afford it. Since they can’t they are compelled to live in an outlying area and pay their dues via commuting time.
The tourism angle is nothing new, but it means more to the people who work in those businesses; and most of those people are not part of the local homeowner population. If they own a home it most likely is in Temecula.
So Temecula’s performance is interesting not just from a trend watcher perspective, but also because it can fairly be called the shape of things to come for the more central areas here in SD County.
It’s already happening. Look at the trends all across the Hwy-78 corridor. The foreclosure and price reduction trends are lagging those of Riverside County but they’re still happening and it’s still spreading south.
It’s not different this time, it’s not different here, we don’t have more people moving in than moving out, and being on the coast will not provide immunity from an economic trend.
If you disagree, please show the data you’re using to support that opinion. “Everyone wants to live here” is an emotional plea most commonly employed by the REIC, not a thoughtful or supported conclusion that has any foundation in fact.
June 18, 2007 at 9:41 AM #60108PD
ParticipantJosh and Bugs are right. All areas have a premium or discount relative to others within driving distance. Price increases or decreases in one area changes its premium or discount relative to nearby markets, altering demand patterns. The cheaper it becomes in Temecula relative to other areas, the more demand will be sucked away from those other areas, having an affect on prices.
Water always finds its level.
June 18, 2007 at 9:41 AM #60075ParticipantJosh and Bugs are right. All areas have a premium or discount relative to others within driving distance. Price increases or decreases in one area changes its premium or discount relative to nearby markets, altering demand patterns. The cheaper it becomes in Temecula relative to other areas, the more demand will be sucked away from those other areas, having an affect on prices.
Water always finds its level.
June 18, 2007 at 9:50 AM #60113no_such_reality
ParticipantThe fact there are a lot of jobs there is no relevant. So does places like Irvine but homes in Irvine fail in comparison to Newport and home prices in Irvine do not affect prices in Newport.
ROFL.
June 18, 2007 at 9:50 AM #60081ParticipantThe fact there are a lot of jobs there is no relevant. So does places like Irvine but homes in Irvine fail in comparison to Newport and home prices in Irvine do not affect prices in Newport.
ROFL.
June 18, 2007 at 10:11 AM #60095The-Shoveler
ParticipantNor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy
Josh, Bugs And PD are right.
I am an example of this, I bought a McMansion in 2002 in Temecula, Would love to upgrade to MacMansion in Costal North SD, But will not sell the Temecula place and could go on living here in Temecula very comfortably in the mean time (even if housing prices never crash in NC thank you).
(work from home a lot JFYI)
June 18, 2007 at 10:11 AM #60128ParticipantNor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy
Josh, Bugs And PD are right.
I am an example of this, I bought a McMansion in 2002 in Temecula, Would love to upgrade to MacMansion in Costal North SD, But will not sell the Temecula place and could go on living here in Temecula very comfortably in the mean time (even if housing prices never crash in NC thank you).
(work from home a lot JFYI)
June 18, 2007 at 1:33 PM #60125Alex_angel
Participantescondido borders san diego and is connected. Temecla is not connected. There is miles and miles of nothing in between temecula and san diego. Temecula is Riverside county, not san diego
June 18, 2007 at 1:33 PM #60158Participantescondido borders san diego and is connected. Temecla is not connected. There is miles and miles of nothing in between temecula and san diego. Temecula is Riverside county, not san diego
June 18, 2007 at 1:54 PM #60129ParticipantThe cities do not have to share a border to be connected in the real estate market. How can you not see that? San Diego is connected to Temecula through the freeway, which allows people to live in Temecula and work in SD.
June 18, 2007 at 1:54 PM #60162ParticipantThe cities do not have to share a border to be connected in the real estate market. How can you not see that? San Diego is connected to Temecula through the freeway, which allows people to live in Temecula and work in SD.
June 18, 2007 at 2:11 PM #60131ParticipantThere is miles and miles of nothing in between temecula and san diego.
There is?
Hmm, seem to be about 3 miles to Fallbrook. That’s center of town Fallbrook. And about 1.5 miles to the canyon roads and all the homes built off of Mission Rd. Winterwarm, San luis Rey, Ranch Bernardo, Escondido, Poway,Carmel Valley, Del Mar, heck, it’s one long suburban strip with little pocket of too be built land.
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