Summer 2012 SD Housing Price Top

[Coronita]

I think it rates keep falling like a brick, all this will do is stimulate those well qualified buyers to either buy for the first time, upgrade, or buy more investment property.

Seriously,borrowed money is so cheap now, getting even cheaper….It’s great. And I think we have no choice but to go lower on rates.

[Anonymous]

[quote]MM already have 3 Asian supermarkets, so we rarely go to 99. We actually go to Zion more than 99. We only go to 99 when the local supermarket doesn’t have something we want to make and we’re already down at Zion buying stuff. I can’t stand the parking situation at 99.[/quote]

I heard that the Ralph’s in MM is closing and will be replaced by H-Mart, which is better than Zion and much better than Ranch 99.

[an]

[quote=legallyblue][quote]MM already have 3 Asian supermarkets, so we rarely go to 99. We actually go to Zion more than 99. We only go to 99 when the local supermarket doesn’t have something we want to make and we’re already down at Zion buying stuff. I can’t stand the parking situation at 99.[/quote]

I heard that the Ralph’s in MM is closing and will be replaced by H-Mart, which is better than Zion and much better than Ranch 99.[/quote]
I hope that’s true (although I’ve never heard of H-Mart). Where did you hear that from? Can’t have too many Asian supermarket. Maybe it’ll force the current Asian super market to upgrade and compete. Else, they’ll go out of business.

Ralph’s always seem to be the most expensive out of the 3 big supermarket. That Ralph’s is also old and in need of a remodel.

[sdrealtor]

One more point to address your #5 seasonality. The Spring bounce was not so much a bounce as it was a restoration to last years levels. If you remember, I was reporting funny goings on in the market between Nov and Jan of last year. I thought it might be another leg down but it wasnt. It was the last big block of short sale inventory that had been on the market for a long time getting cleared at bargain basement prices. Thats the reason inventory has dropped so much. That big block of short sale inventory got cleared and has not nor will it be replaced hence we have inventory levels more than 25% down from last year. That last gap down is past and there isnt anything to bring the market back down.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter]Agree with you, sdduuuude, but not limiting it to just those areas. I think the “peak” for this most recent run-up (or slower/stagnant declines in some areas that should be falling faster) all across the country is in…for all the reasons you’ve stated.

Smells like deflation to me! ;)[/quote]

Youve been making these arguments for years. The worst is over and sddude is hoping it isnt because he still is looking to buy a move up property without selling his current home.

Just saw a corelogic report that 165K mortgages are underwater in SD. Most of the NINJA folks are dead, buried and gone. A good percentage of those u/w folks are current on their mortgage, doing just fine and not going anywhere, There are a bunch in my community just like that.

Small increases in prices will bring others above water.

Many of those properties are in hard hit low income areas.

Many of those properties are condos.

When you break it down we probably have about a year or so worth of single family inventory hanging out there in the shadows. Thats not much.

No one is getting their $500K oceanfront home!

The lenders will keep eaking out the distress sales to keep the market propped up rather than unleashing the dreaded tsunami which would create more distress.

Places like CV have proven to be relatively IMMUNE contrary to all the ridiculing so many vocal uberbears subjected many of us to for years. SOme places really are different.

Some day sooner than most expected we will wake up to a healthy market and this will all be a hard learned lesson in our collective rear view mirrors.

Until then rant on while you can.

[sdduuuude]

Yes, the leg down in Winter 2011 was pretty sharp.

I think the trough in Dec 2012/Jan 2013 will not be as low as Dec 2011/Jan 2012.

But I think the peak in June 2013 will be below the peak of June 2012.

[sdrealtor]

[img_assist|nid=16432|title=Short Sale Inventory market clearing|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=436|height=332]

Look at that inventory line dropping since last Summer. It hasnt stopped dropping. Inventory is down more than 40%. That drop is attributable to a large block of short sale inventory getting cleared from the market. It hasnt been replaced and there is no signs that it will be.

With these kinds of inventory levels there is very little chance of prices going down.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor] … sddude is hoping it isnt because he still is looking to buy a move up property without selling his current home.[/quote]

I’m not just hoping, though. My intuition (and many economic bloggers I trust) tells me that the global economic situation will come home to local markets.

I can’t help but feel it is foolish to buy a big move-up property now, knowing this is looming.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor] … sddude is hoping it isnt because he still is looking to buy a move up property without selling his current home.[/quote]

I’m not just hoping, though. My intuition (and many economic bloggers I trust) tells me that the global economic situation will come home to local markets.

I can’t help but feel it is foolish to buy a big move-up property now, knowing this is looming.[/quote]

Then dont. Stay where you are or rent. You only answer to yourself and your family. You have to be confident and comfortable with your decisions whether they are wrong or right.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at that inventory line dropping since last Summer.[/quote]

Yes – shrinking inventory for 12 months and since that time, prices are lower.

Low inventory is a strong force. Something has to be out there pushing the other way to make prices do what they have done since last Summer.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]Look at that inventory line dropping since last Summer.[/quote]

Yes – shrinking inventory for 12 months and since that time, prices are lower.[/quote]

Of course prices are lower. Thats what happens when distressed inventory gets cleared from the market. Whats out there since last Summer is sellers with no incentive to push for higher prices but rather incentives to get them closed this year to take advantage of mortgage debt foregiveness act. They are gone for the most part. Now what?

[The-Shoveler]

I would have to go with sdr about the following,
1)Without a major economic downturn I don’t think we will see much lower prices in SD area.
2)Most of the remaining U/W home owners in SD are not going anywhere, if they were they would already be on the market to take advantage of the tax law (another reason inventory is so low).

Thing is I think there is a good possibility of another economic downturn (which if it occurs from this level will probably scare the piss out of most everyone here).
You need to ask yourself (where were you in 2009?)

[briansd1]

I just bought a house in Las Vegas. Prices there are going up. And it’s supposed to be one of the worse markets in the country.
Inventory is low and builders are increasing prices.

Prices may move sideways creating lower real inflation adjusted prices. But not lower.

A Euro crisis may cause a slowdown but likely not a recession in America. Rates wiould drop thus helping housing and spurring refinancing.

Remember that we’ve not had much building going on.

[The-Shoveler]

The euro area is the world’s Largest economic entity (GDP is larger than the U.S.A GDP) and provides most of the emerging markets financing (hint it is not us that provides this financing).
I doubt we would escape without getting wounded

[Coronita]

[quote=briansd1]I just bought a house in Las Vegas. Prices there are going up. And it’s supposed to be one of the worse markets in the country.
Inventory is low and builders are increasing prices.

Prices may move sideways creating lower real inflation adjusted prices. But not lower.

A Euro crisis may cause a slowdown but likely not a recession in America. Rates wiould drop thus helping housing and spurring refinancing.

Remember that we’ve not had much building going on.[/quote]

Share the details. Size/price…etc.

[Author]

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