Stocks drop huge…now what?

[cr]

It’s the biggest drop in number ever (not %), all because Wall Street finally had their hand held to the flame and realized it might actually have to be held accountable for their actions.

All of this bailout talk was for the Treasury to step in and buy bad mortgage debt, but how many of the mortgages in this country are actually bad? 2%? 3%? And how much of a negative impact on the entire financial world could those bad mortgages really have?

It’s a safe bet there will still be more bank failures, continued foreclosures, increased unemployment, higher inflation, but in all likelihood there will also still be some type of a bailout.

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Some of the biggest players in the mortgage world are gone, and this drop IMO was due, but now that’s it’s here can the rest of the world move on?

[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[peterb]

Some things worth considering:

1)The Japanse have a much stronger economy from a fundemental perspective…they produce many things the world buys.

2)Inflation has been huge since 2002. So if you took that into consideration, the DOW is probably way down with a lot more to go. P/E of 10 to 12 AFTER adusting for the crap earnings were about to see!

3)Unemployment, as measured by the BLS, is highly inaccurate. I would guesstimate that it’s about 10% in CA right now.

4)The NASD topped in 2001 at about 5200, and in 2001 US$. Do the math on that one!

I think we’ll be lucky to see an “L” shape play out.

[peterb]

Some things worth considering:

1)The Japanse have a much stronger economy from a fundemental perspective…they produce many things the world buys.

2)Inflation has been huge since 2002. So if you took that into consideration, the DOW is probably way down with a lot more to go. P/E of 10 to 12 AFTER adusting for the crap earnings were about to see!

3)Unemployment, as measured by the BLS, is highly inaccurate. I would guesstimate that it’s about 10% in CA right now.

4)The NASD topped in 2001 at about 5200, and in 2001 US$. Do the math on that one!

I think we’ll be lucky to see an “L” shape play out.

[peterb]

Some things worth considering:

1)The Japanse have a much stronger economy from a fundemental perspective…they produce many things the world buys.

2)Inflation has been huge since 2002. So if you took that into consideration, the DOW is probably way down with a lot more to go. P/E of 10 to 12 AFTER adusting for the crap earnings were about to see!

3)Unemployment, as measured by the BLS, is highly inaccurate. I would guesstimate that it’s about 10% in CA right now.

4)The NASD topped in 2001 at about 5200, and in 2001 US$. Do the math on that one!

I think we’ll be lucky to see an “L” shape play out.

[peterb]

Some things worth considering:

1)The Japanse have a much stronger economy from a fundemental perspective…they produce many things the world buys.

2)Inflation has been huge since 2002. So if you took that into consideration, the DOW is probably way down with a lot more to go. P/E of 10 to 12 AFTER adusting for the crap earnings were about to see!

3)Unemployment, as measured by the BLS, is highly inaccurate. I would guesstimate that it’s about 10% in CA right now.

4)The NASD topped in 2001 at about 5200, and in 2001 US$. Do the math on that one!

I think we’ll be lucky to see an “L” shape play out.

[peterb]

Some things worth considering:

1)The Japanse have a much stronger economy from a fundemental perspective…they produce many things the world buys.

2)Inflation has been huge since 2002. So if you took that into consideration, the DOW is probably way down with a lot more to go. P/E of 10 to 12 AFTER adusting for the crap earnings were about to see!

3)Unemployment, as measured by the BLS, is highly inaccurate. I would guesstimate that it’s about 10% in CA right now.

4)The NASD topped in 2001 at about 5200, and in 2001 US$. Do the math on that one!

I think we’ll be lucky to see an “L” shape play out.

[stockstradr]

Sorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bojs-september-tankan-likely-points/story.aspx?guid=%7B88A67021%2D2636%2D4E7C%2D986F%2DF98D5F77E605%7D

If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan

[stockstradr]

Sorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bojs-september-tankan-likely-points/story.aspx?guid=%7B88A67021%2D2636%2D4E7C%2D986F%2DF98D5F77E605%7D

If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan

[stockstradr]

Sorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bojs-september-tankan-likely-points/story.aspx?guid=%7B88A67021%2D2636%2D4E7C%2D986F%2DF98D5F77E605%7D

If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan

[stockstradr]

Sorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bojs-september-tankan-likely-points/story.aspx?guid=%7B88A67021%2D2636%2D4E7C%2D986F%2DF98D5F77E605%7D

If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan

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