Stocks, Banks, Gold-This board has all been wrong.

[desmoJ]

Housing yes, this board has it right, but NOTHING else-so far.

My take:
Hot right now- Stock Market. I have kept my money in the market. This board: Doomsday

I have also put my money in CD’s in banks like Wamu & Bank of the West with very high rates. This board: Never get your money back.

So far so good.

[EJ]

A year ago the housing bulls on this forum were saying how no one knew what they were talking about and had interpreted the housing market all wrong (i.e., no bubble).

I wouldn’t be so quick to make your call on the stock market. I think there is a lot that will unfold in the next 6-12 months that will not bid well for stocks. IMO, consumer spending will be greatly reduced by the housing slump and this will trickle down in the form of reduced profits, expectations not met, and lower stock prices. Why do you think stocks will stay hot?

There are some on this site who think banks could collapse and uninsured (or even insured) CD’s may become worthless but I don’t believe the majority of participants feel this way. That’s where my money is, so I definitely don’t feel that way.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, tell us how your stocks are doing a year from now.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

When the stock market is hitting its all-time record high, it is time for me to sell. I just sold my stocks in Pfizer, Verizon, and American Electric. I am keeping my foreign ADR’s (Honda, Mittal, Consol, etc.). I am also keeping mutual funds (example: EuroPacific Growth) in foreign stocks. Why not sell high today, park the money somewhere in CD or Treasury bills, and probably buy again around October 2007? Of course, my guesstimate could be wrong. Fire away?

[powayseller]

CDs, yes. Stocks, no: how will you know when to get out?

[Anonymous]

Dow hitting record high is overrated BS from the media. For one thing, adjusted for inflation DOW is not close a an all time high. Plus DOW is a useless index. S&P 500 is still far from its high, and NASDAQ is still a whopping 60% below its all time high.

[desmoJ]

Quick history on myself- Bought first home in La Crescenta in 86 for 135k, sold for 247k in 1990, bought in Valencia 287k 1990 and sold for 715k 9/05.

I feel that the market is the next mini bubble, it may not last long but where else are the masses going to look for the quick buck? So I am going to ride it as fas as I can, granted most of my money is in CD’s and T-Bills. When will I get out? I don’t know, hopefully before it tanks. Could this board, including myself, be thinking too small, meaning housing will tank but the stock market and other parts of the economy will prosper? Just a hunch and nothing more. But so far so good.

[rseiser]

This board all wrong? No, first of all, most of the arguments presented describe the state of the economy and the risk one is taking when going into one asset class. It is not to forecast something month by month.
Just look at stocks, from May until August they fell, and from August until October they rose. Depending on the Dow or Nasdaq we are roughly back to even. Same with gold but slightly earlier, we had a rally and now we are back down. So one can call both markets flat and discuss what is going to happen longer term.

Me personally wrong? Yes, I admit it I was partially big-time wrong.
I was right on warning about oil and industrial metals when they were high. I was ok on suggesting agricultural commodities since they did okay. I didn’t push gold much when it was high, but below $600 I recommended it. So I was slightly too high, and we will se how it will do going forward.
But where I was really wrong was on bonds. I never expected interest rates to fall so far and expected stronger gold and weaker dollar. I also was wrong in stocks, which I didn’t expect to be so strong the last week. I predicted an end of the rally the end of September, and I took a real beating with my money. So don’t follow my advice in the future. I can still be right on the lending and housing stocks since they are acting weak right now and might not make their May high before they roll over again.

Bottom line: We might not be good in predicting the short-term, but buying stocks or bonds at these prices is quite risky. Not as risky as real-estate, but risky nevertheless historically.

[MH]

I'd agree that some here are a bit too CERTAIN the market will tank in the immediate future; I think that there is the distinct possibility that the predictions of 15% growth in equities next year might well come true.  But…

MMFs are paying over 5% and have very limited risk (variability).  Stocks MIGHT make 15%, but they might also go down considerably as well.  Add up the possible outcomes and weighted averages however you'd like, I don't see too much downside to sitting outside of the market for a bit. 

In a year one of us will be right.  If you are, then you've gained something more than my 5%.  If I am, drop me a line and I'll buy you lunch with my earnings.

[The-Shoveler]

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

I sold My qqqq share’s in January last year for 41, been below that almost all year , just today went over 41 so I got brave and went short a small amount of shares at 41.27.

I have earned more money in CD than qqqq, I have not keeped up with mutual fund performance (don’t like their fees and usally their performance sucks) Maybe their were a lot that did 15% but I don’t think there were very many. I did not calculate but I thin the DOW is only up 7% or so from January.

Good luck with your investments what ever they are.

[JES]

The fact that the market has done so well lately gives me even more motivation not to invest in it. What’s really out of favor right now? How about Iraqi Dinars – they are worthless right now and nobody I know would advise investing in them. Perhaps that means we should be buying millions of them.

[Anonymous]

desmoJ, let’s check your Dow in late October (Oct. 29 is the first release of Q3 GDP). I’ve never been one to attempt to predict short-term movements (I know better than to attempt to predict short-term human psychology), only what must happen in the long-term. But, I’ll go out on a limb here and put up a nickel that the Dow will be lower after market close on Oct. 29 than it is today.

[sdduuuude]

I think you might be confusing powayseller as being representative of “this board.” She posts the most, but the opinions on stocks, banks, and gold vary wildly amongst the participants.

Chris J, for example, pretty much predicted this bull market.

And I’ll be the first to admit – I’m pretty sure what housing is going to do, but I’m clueless on the three items you mention.

[Bugs]

Just as with the housing market, you don’t decide which side of the argument was right until after the cycle has completed. The RE market is just starting downward, whereas the stock market is now on an upward swing. We’re nowhere near declaring a winner on the stock market cycle.

The predominant theme here is that success is not measured by how much you can make, but by how much you can keep after it’s all over.

[privatebanker]

I’ve always said, “THIS IS THE LAST PLACE YOU WOULD WANT TO RECEIVE INVESTMENT ADVICE!” I’ve seen some very naive recommendations. This is a housing site! Go see a CFP!

[Author]

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