State of the economy and affect on housing in S California

[joec]

[quote=wallers]ok thanks everyone! great info. I think I am going to rent and see how this all plays out.

From all the info here and everywhere generally speaking it seems prices will either remain somewhat the same/maybe a bit up for sometime and things will trudge along or go down. So financially it might be prudent to wait and see with minimal risk of a continued large price increase (buy now or be priced out forever!). Plus there is the possibility of staying calm and being rewarded for waiting for lower prices.

On the personal side I like being a homeowner. But if I can’t get what I want perhaps than maybe it’s not a great idea to buy anyways.[/quote]

I think the bottom line for a lot of people to also consider is if you don’t own ANY property, then buying something you can easily afford to LIVE in is not the dumbest thing in the world. You have to live somewhere and like the poster who bought for 330k and her house is now worth 550k or so, whatever the equity is worth shouldn’t matter if you can afford the payments and are long term.

There are way too many variables within the housing market alone as well as way too many variables in each of our lives. You can wait a long time, but say you are in your early 30s, married and have 1 kid with 1 on the way and you want a stable environment to have them grow up. Sure, you can say it’s overvalued and it will revert, but what if that takes 20 years, or 30 years? By then, you’re 50-60+ and looking to retire. Ultimately, it’s just money and again, that 1st home to live in shouldn’t matter as much if the payments aren’t that bad. Also, some areas never stay down forever. I know all the properties my parents bought in the bay area are higher then they paid when they bought. I believe decent places in NY is the same and most of coastal CA.

Sure, you can rent, but it’s nice when you know your housing payment for the next 30 years and no landlords possibly kicking you out with a month notice cause their kid is coming back from college, etc…or the constant rent increases.

Another thing I have mentioned is all the time you waste here or any housing forum (I wasted tons more prior to buying) is a waste of time. I simply love not caring or having to worry where housing prices will go.

Also, I think only certain areas had a lot of investors. In a lot of the higher end or at least over the 600-700k markets, I really don’t see people buying to flip or rent homes out in that price range. It’s all families here (4S/Del Sur).

[fun4vnay2]

Different strokes for different people.
5 years back I thought I have a kind of permanent job in San Diego but with the flight of jobs from SD to low cost areas, this is no more the case.
Renting a home is not looked down any more.
Only reason I bought house is to build equity and I am glad I didn’t pay heed to people in 2007/6 and bought in 2011.

The real estate in CA is very cyclical and I a sure there would be opportunities abound for the people who have the patience.

Do we have one ?

[wallers]

yep. I’m out. 3127 McKinley just listed. check the history. in my opinion wow.

[CA renter]

[quote=wallers]yep. I’m out. 3127 McKinley just listed. check the history. in my opinion wow.[/quote]

Crazy price for a house that size. It’s also a bummer that the most recent owners took out the beautiful trees and painted over the previous colors, which matched better with the house. The house looked so much nicer in the previous listing, especially with the nice trees out front.

[CA renter]

FWIW, I think Pollard is correct in his thinking. The question, of course, is how long until it washes out? If you’re sitting in a rental for 10 years (or more), would you be okay with that?

[Balboa]

[quote=wallers]yep. I’m out. 3127 McKinley just listed. check the history. in my opinion wow.[/quote]

I love that the listing says it was remodeled (“remolded,” actually) in 2012. That’s before the current sellers owned it. So other than cut down trees and paint, they probably did exactly nothing to it. Also, it has exactly *one* great public school near by.

Not too far away, there is an under-700-sqft 2/2 on Myrtle that says “Photos were taken prior to owners moving in. Very little if anything was changed.” But of course they are asking $120k more than they bought it for in 2012. It’s been on 35 days now with no drops.

My friends are seeing the same types of things in 92117 and surrounding zips.

[fun4vnay2]

Crazy price with crazy appreciation..

[Jazzman]

[quote=wallers]ok thanks everyone! great info. I think I am going to rent and see how this all plays out.

From all the info here and everywhere generally speaking it seems prices will either remain somewhat the same/maybe a bit up for sometime and things will trudge along or go down. So financially it might be prudent to wait and see with minimal risk of a continued large price increase (buy now or be priced out forever!). Plus there is the possibility of staying calm and being rewarded for waiting for lower prices.

On the personal side I like being a homeowner. But if I can’t get what I want perhaps than maybe it’s not a great idea to buy anyways.[/quote]

If I was in your shoes, I’d probably be doing the same. It’s a huge commitment so you have to be comfortable with it.

[joec]

Another thing to factor in is what is your rental cost? I used to rent the cheapest crapholes I could find, but I wouldn’t want to live there long term (area, neighbors, schools, etc…was single)

If you rent in a 3k/month place now and are ok with buying a 3k/month place, then buying is easier to stomach vs. renting in a 1k/month place and it costs you 2.5k/month to buy the place you want to live in longer term…

Kids and school districts make it harder to rent small/cheaper in general.

Doesn’t sound like you have kids or a spouse so renting makes more sense for flexibility.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Jazzman][quote=wallers]ok thanks everyone! great info. I think I am going to rent and see how this all plays out.

From all the info here and everywhere generally speaking it seems prices will either remain somewhat the same/maybe a bit up for sometime and things will trudge along or go down. So financially it might be prudent to wait and see with minimal risk of a continued large price increase (buy now or be priced out forever!). Plus there is the possibility of staying calm and being rewarded for waiting for lower prices.

On the personal side I like being a homeowner. But if I can’t get what I want perhaps than maybe it’s not a great idea to buy anyways.[/quote]

If I was in your shoes, I’d probably be doing the same. It’s a huge commitment so you have to be comfortable with it.[/quote]

people who actually think about things are unlikely to ever be really comfortable.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=Jazzman][quote=wallers]ok thanks everyone! great info. I think I am going to rent and see how this all plays out.

From all the info here and everywhere generally speaking it seems prices will either remain somewhat the same/maybe a bit up for sometime and things will trudge along or go down. So financially it might be prudent to wait and see with minimal risk of a continued large price increase (buy now or be priced out forever!). Plus there is the possibility of staying calm and being rewarded for waiting for lower prices.

On the personal side I like being a homeowner. But if I can’t get what I want perhaps than maybe it’s not a great idea to buy anyways.[/quote]

If I was in your shoes, I’d probably be doing the same. It’s a huge commitment so you have to be comfortable with it.[/quote]

people who actually think about things are unlikely to ever be really comfortable.[/quote]

Hahahahahaha, scaredy :=D. I well remember your months/years? of musings on here during your “overthinking” period before you finally purchased your current home.

I also remember all of Jazzman’s musings during and after his failed search up and down the state for a suitable CA retirement home. As I recall, 90% of his search occurred at the very bottom of the market (2010-2011?). As far as he’s told us, he still hasn’t purchased a CA home and I’m unclear if he still wants to. In any case, that train has long ago left the station.

[wallers]

But that train might be circling back to the station or at least part way. One never knows. Anyways, I agree also with the comments about over thinking things because it would just be a lot of frustration. Now that I have made the decision I basically am going to put this to rest and move on with rest of my life. If I start seeing some headlines about the housing market moving the other way cause the fed has to pay the piper then I will perk back up. But for now I am going to live and let live. And yes, single with no kids and lots of savings. thanks for the therapy. I will post a follow up in a year/two/three/four or more… who knows!

[fun4vnay2]

Since you have lot of money for cash down, I’d say invest in some good relatively safe place to get you 4-5% return.

In couple of years, when and if the interest rates hit high, I am sure the prices would come down

Real estate prices in CA are cyclical in general and if anyone says otherwise, please look at the history.

Of course no one knows the future..

[wallers]

yep that’s the other issue. I know nothing about getting 4-5% and my money is just sitting at .08 money market right now. i guess that’s a whole other thread.
probably look into that here in the next several weeks because just doing nothing will hurt in the end.

[scaredyclassic]

At the very least get .9 to 1 perc. In an Amex personal savings acct. Linked to yr. Checking

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