Spike up in Median price as Inventory plummets.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=jpinpb]Wouldn’t the median go up in price as the high end reduces, thus falling into the median bracket?[/quote]

Only if more high-priced homes sold as a result of the reduced high end prices. (This is the Jim the Realtor thesis as I understand it).

Anyway, as to the original post — that housingtracker site measures asking prices… as this redfin chart shows, there is a difference twixt asking and selling prices:

Rich

[Bob]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=jpinpb]Wouldn’t the median go up in price as the high end reduces, thus falling into the median bracket?[/quote]

Anyway, as to the original post — that housingtracker site measures asking prices… as this redfin chart shows, there is a difference twixt asking and selling prices:

Rich[/quote]

Excellent point….the fact is, prices AREN’T going up. If anything, banks continue to price lowball listings to get people in the door.

Next….

[Bob]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=jpinpb]Wouldn’t the median go up in price as the high end reduces, thus falling into the median bracket?[/quote]

Anyway, as to the original post — that housingtracker site measures asking prices… as this redfin chart shows, there is a difference twixt asking and selling prices:

Rich[/quote]

Excellent point….the fact is, prices AREN’T going up. If anything, banks continue to price lowball listings to get people in the door.

Next….

[Bob]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=jpinpb]Wouldn’t the median go up in price as the high end reduces, thus falling into the median bracket?[/quote]

Anyway, as to the original post — that housingtracker site measures asking prices… as this redfin chart shows, there is a difference twixt asking and selling prices:

Rich[/quote]

Excellent point….the fact is, prices AREN’T going up. If anything, banks continue to price lowball listings to get people in the door.

Next….

[Bob]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=jpinpb]Wouldn’t the median go up in price as the high end reduces, thus falling into the median bracket?[/quote]

Anyway, as to the original post — that housingtracker site measures asking prices… as this redfin chart shows, there is a difference twixt asking and selling prices:

Rich[/quote]

Excellent point….the fact is, prices AREN’T going up. If anything, banks continue to price lowball listings to get people in the door.

Next….

[Bob]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=jpinpb]Wouldn’t the median go up in price as the high end reduces, thus falling into the median bracket?[/quote]

Anyway, as to the original post — that housingtracker site measures asking prices… as this redfin chart shows, there is a difference twixt asking and selling prices:

Rich[/quote]

Excellent point….the fact is, prices AREN’T going up. If anything, banks continue to price lowball listings to get people in the door.

Next….

[schizo2buyORnot]

Rich, point taken on asking vis selling per the chart. However, asking is a leading indicater albeit a somewhat indefinite one. However that is the nature of a leading indicator versus a lagging indicator which is exact. Interpreting a leading indicator is always akin to a form of “tea leaf reading.” But it behooves an investor to look forward not dwell on the past.

The sold data in the overlaid chart you posted is dated information. The arms length decision beween a willing buyer and willing seller to buy/sell reflected by the sales figures depicted in the chart occurred weeks or even months ago. The asking information reflects the mentality of sellers today. That combined with a plummeting inventory says much.

Its undeniable that inventories are at levels not seen for years, a bullish inidcator for housing.

Inventory
May 2009 11,941
May 2008 18,557
May 2007 18,505
May 2006 18,060

[schizo2buyORnot]

Rich, point taken on asking vis selling per the chart. However, asking is a leading indicater albeit a somewhat indefinite one. However that is the nature of a leading indicator versus a lagging indicator which is exact. Interpreting a leading indicator is always akin to a form of “tea leaf reading.” But it behooves an investor to look forward not dwell on the past.

The sold data in the overlaid chart you posted is dated information. The arms length decision beween a willing buyer and willing seller to buy/sell reflected by the sales figures depicted in the chart occurred weeks or even months ago. The asking information reflects the mentality of sellers today. That combined with a plummeting inventory says much.

Its undeniable that inventories are at levels not seen for years, a bullish inidcator for housing.

Inventory
May 2009 11,941
May 2008 18,557
May 2007 18,505
May 2006 18,060

[schizo2buyORnot]

Rich, point taken on asking vis selling per the chart. However, asking is a leading indicater albeit a somewhat indefinite one. However that is the nature of a leading indicator versus a lagging indicator which is exact. Interpreting a leading indicator is always akin to a form of “tea leaf reading.” But it behooves an investor to look forward not dwell on the past.

The sold data in the overlaid chart you posted is dated information. The arms length decision beween a willing buyer and willing seller to buy/sell reflected by the sales figures depicted in the chart occurred weeks or even months ago. The asking information reflects the mentality of sellers today. That combined with a plummeting inventory says much.

Its undeniable that inventories are at levels not seen for years, a bullish inidcator for housing.

Inventory
May 2009 11,941
May 2008 18,557
May 2007 18,505
May 2006 18,060

[schizo2buyORnot]

Rich, point taken on asking vis selling per the chart. However, asking is a leading indicater albeit a somewhat indefinite one. However that is the nature of a leading indicator versus a lagging indicator which is exact. Interpreting a leading indicator is always akin to a form of “tea leaf reading.” But it behooves an investor to look forward not dwell on the past.

The sold data in the overlaid chart you posted is dated information. The arms length decision beween a willing buyer and willing seller to buy/sell reflected by the sales figures depicted in the chart occurred weeks or even months ago. The asking information reflects the mentality of sellers today. That combined with a plummeting inventory says much.

Its undeniable that inventories are at levels not seen for years, a bullish inidcator for housing.

Inventory
May 2009 11,941
May 2008 18,557
May 2007 18,505
May 2006 18,060

[schizo2buyORnot]

Rich, point taken on asking vis selling per the chart. However, asking is a leading indicater albeit a somewhat indefinite one. However that is the nature of a leading indicator versus a lagging indicator which is exact. Interpreting a leading indicator is always akin to a form of “tea leaf reading.” But it behooves an investor to look forward not dwell on the past.

The sold data in the overlaid chart you posted is dated information. The arms length decision beween a willing buyer and willing seller to buy/sell reflected by the sales figures depicted in the chart occurred weeks or even months ago. The asking information reflects the mentality of sellers today. That combined with a plummeting inventory says much.

Its undeniable that inventories are at levels not seen for years, a bullish inidcator for housing.

Inventory
May 2009 11,941
May 2008 18,557
May 2007 18,505
May 2006 18,060

[Rich Toscano]

That is a good point about the lag, though I think that’s not all of it. The divergence has after all been happening all year. I think the other part of it is that the cheep stuff is what is selling, whereas the more expensive stuff only makes it into the asking price series.

As for inventory, it’s a valid point and has been discussed much on the board (look for stuff written by the resident realtors). There is a lot of speculation that the low inventory could lead to a price rise, which seems like a reasonable possibility. However, it’s tough to think of it as the bottom when there are so many foreclosed properties that haven’t hit the inventory yet. So it’s certainly bullish short term, but the backlog of inventory that hasn’t hit yet prevents me from becoming long-term bullish.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

That is a good point about the lag, though I think that’s not all of it. The divergence has after all been happening all year. I think the other part of it is that the cheep stuff is what is selling, whereas the more expensive stuff only makes it into the asking price series.

As for inventory, it’s a valid point and has been discussed much on the board (look for stuff written by the resident realtors). There is a lot of speculation that the low inventory could lead to a price rise, which seems like a reasonable possibility. However, it’s tough to think of it as the bottom when there are so many foreclosed properties that haven’t hit the inventory yet. So it’s certainly bullish short term, but the backlog of inventory that hasn’t hit yet prevents me from becoming long-term bullish.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

That is a good point about the lag, though I think that’s not all of it. The divergence has after all been happening all year. I think the other part of it is that the cheep stuff is what is selling, whereas the more expensive stuff only makes it into the asking price series.

As for inventory, it’s a valid point and has been discussed much on the board (look for stuff written by the resident realtors). There is a lot of speculation that the low inventory could lead to a price rise, which seems like a reasonable possibility. However, it’s tough to think of it as the bottom when there are so many foreclosed properties that haven’t hit the inventory yet. So it’s certainly bullish short term, but the backlog of inventory that hasn’t hit yet prevents me from becoming long-term bullish.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

That is a good point about the lag, though I think that’s not all of it. The divergence has after all been happening all year. I think the other part of it is that the cheep stuff is what is selling, whereas the more expensive stuff only makes it into the asking price series.

As for inventory, it’s a valid point and has been discussed much on the board (look for stuff written by the resident realtors). There is a lot of speculation that the low inventory could lead to a price rise, which seems like a reasonable possibility. However, it’s tough to think of it as the bottom when there are so many foreclosed properties that haven’t hit the inventory yet. So it’s certainly bullish short term, but the backlog of inventory that hasn’t hit yet prevents me from becoming long-term bullish.

Rich

[Author]

Posts