Something Ain’t Right in San Marcos

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[Anonymous]

Butleroftwo and OCRenter –

As much as I hate to zero in on a specific neighborhood, I do in fact believe that in this case it is warranted, although I believe that there are others in areas like San Elijo Hills etc. that also fit the profile. This entire neighborhood sold during the big run up in prices from 2003-2006, with most homes having sold in 2004 and 2005. They started in the mid to high 400s, and ended up in the 700s by 2005. The early phases saw rampant speculation by people who could not afford to live there and should not have been approved to buy those homes – even at 500k. Specifically, a number of homes in phase one went to people who worked for the builder, Centex. Another 3-4 homes went to one realtor who proceeded to live in one, flip it, live in another, flip it. In the first 2-3 phases, I would estimate that close to 30% of the buyers were brokers, many of whom flipped, or are still there and now in trouble. Most buyers spent 30-100k on yards they could not afford – just look at the landscaping as you drive up Edgewater. In the later phases, people paid 600-800k for homes that I seriously doubt they can afford either, especially with ARMS expiring etc. Sure, many can afford them, but many can’t – and it doesn’t take many to bring prices down. When you take all of this into account, you quickly develop a picture of a situation that is very unique to new neighborhoods that sold in the 2003-2006 time frame like Silvercrest. IMO, this is a very nice neighborhood, but needs more time to let ‘natural selection’ work itself out. Surely we will see lower prices, and people who can afford to live there will move in over time – but it will take considerable time IMO and we are not…

[Anonymous]

Butleroftwo and OCRenter –

As much as I hate to zero in on a specific neighborhood, I do in fact believe that in this case it is warranted, although I believe that there are others in areas like San Elijo Hills etc. that also fit the profile. This entire neighborhood sold during the big run up in prices from 2003-2006, with most homes having sold in 2004 and 2005. They started in the mid to high 400s, and ended up in the 700s by 2005. The early phases saw rampant speculation by people who could not afford to live there and should not have been approved to buy those homes – even at 500k. Specifically, a number of homes in phase one went to people who worked for the builder, Centex. Another 3-4 homes went to one realtor who proceeded to live in one, flip it, live in another, flip it. In the first 2-3 phases, I would estimate that close to 30% of the buyers were brokers, many of whom flipped, or are still there and now in trouble. Most buyers spent 30-100k on yards they could not afford – just look at the landscaping as you drive up Edgewater. In the later phases, people paid 600-800k for homes that I seriously doubt they can afford either, especially with ARMS expiring etc. Sure, many can afford them, but many can’t – and it doesn’t take many to bring prices down. When you take all of this into account, you quickly develop a picture of a situation that is very unique to new neighborhoods that sold in the 2003-2006 time frame like Silvercrest. IMO, this is a very nice neighborhood, but needs more time to let ‘natural selection’ work itself out. Surely we will see lower prices, and people who can afford to live there will move in over time – but it will take considerable time IMO and we are not…

[Anonymous]

Butleroftwo and OCRenter –

As much as I hate to zero in on a specific neighborhood, I do in fact believe that in this case it is warranted, although I believe that there are others in areas like San Elijo Hills etc. that also fit the profile. This entire neighborhood sold during the big run up in prices from 2003-2006, with most homes having sold in 2004 and 2005. They started in the mid to high 400s, and ended up in the 700s by 2005. The early phases saw rampant speculation by people who could not afford to live there and should not have been approved to buy those homes – even at 500k. Specifically, a number of homes in phase one went to people who worked for the builder, Centex. Another 3-4 homes went to one realtor who proceeded to live in one, flip it, live in another, flip it. In the first 2-3 phases, I would estimate that close to 30% of the buyers were brokers, many of whom flipped, or are still there and now in trouble. Most buyers spent 30-100k on yards they could not afford – just look at the landscaping as you drive up Edgewater. In the later phases, people paid 600-800k for homes that I seriously doubt they can afford either, especially with ARMS expiring etc. Sure, many can afford them, but many can’t – and it doesn’t take many to bring prices down. When you take all of this into account, you quickly develop a picture of a situation that is very unique to new neighborhoods that sold in the 2003-2006 time frame like Silvercrest. IMO, this is a very nice neighborhood, but needs more time to let ‘natural selection’ work itself out. Surely we will see lower prices, and people who can afford to live there will move in over time – but it will take considerable time IMO and we are not…

[Anonymous]

Butleroftwo and OCRenter –

As much as I hate to zero in on a specific neighborhood, I do in fact believe that in this case it is warranted, although I believe that there are others in areas like San Elijo Hills etc. that also fit the profile. This entire neighborhood sold during the big run up in prices from 2003-2006, with most homes having sold in 2004 and 2005. They started in the mid to high 400s, and ended up in the 700s by 2005. The early phases saw rampant speculation by people who could not afford to live there and should not have been approved to buy those homes – even at 500k. Specifically, a number of homes in phase one went to people who worked for the builder, Centex. Another 3-4 homes went to one realtor who proceeded to live in one, flip it, live in another, flip it. In the first 2-3 phases, I would estimate that close to 30% of the buyers were brokers, many of whom flipped, or are still there and now in trouble. Most buyers spent 30-100k on yards they could not afford – just look at the landscaping as you drive up Edgewater. In the later phases, people paid 600-800k for homes that I seriously doubt they can afford either, especially with ARMS expiring etc. Sure, many can afford them, but many can’t – and it doesn’t take many to bring prices down. When you take all of this into account, you quickly develop a picture of a situation that is very unique to new neighborhoods that sold in the 2003-2006 time frame like Silvercrest. IMO, this is a very nice neighborhood, but needs more time to let ‘natural selection’ work itself out. Surely we will see lower prices, and people who can afford to live there will move in over time – but it will take considerable time IMO and we are not…

[Anonymous]

Butleroftwo and OCRenter –

As much as I hate to zero in on a specific neighborhood, I do in fact believe that in this case it is warranted, although I believe that there are others in areas like San Elijo Hills etc. that also fit the profile. This entire neighborhood sold during the big run up in prices from 2003-2006, with most homes having sold in 2004 and 2005. They started in the mid to high 400s, and ended up in the 700s by 2005. The early phases saw rampant speculation by people who could not afford to live there and should not have been approved to buy those homes – even at 500k. Specifically, a number of homes in phase one went to people who worked for the builder, Centex. Another 3-4 homes went to one realtor who proceeded to live in one, flip it, live in another, flip it. In the first 2-3 phases, I would estimate that close to 30% of the buyers were brokers, many of whom flipped, or are still there and now in trouble. Most buyers spent 30-100k on yards they could not afford – just look at the landscaping as you drive up Edgewater. In the later phases, people paid 600-800k for homes that I seriously doubt they can afford either, especially with ARMS expiring etc. Sure, many can afford them, but many can’t – and it doesn’t take many to bring prices down. When you take all of this into account, you quickly develop a picture of a situation that is very unique to new neighborhoods that sold in the 2003-2006 time frame like Silvercrest. IMO, this is a very nice neighborhood, but needs more time to let ‘natural selection’ work itself out. Surely we will see lower prices, and people who can afford to live there will move in over time – but it will take considerable time IMO and we are not…

[sdrealtor]

Sorry 4plex but mortgage interest isnt the only thing that goes on Schedule A. There are many other itemized deductions which contribute toward offseting the standard deduction.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry 4plex but mortgage interest isnt the only thing that goes on Schedule A. There are many other itemized deductions which contribute toward offseting the standard deduction.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry 4plex but mortgage interest isnt the only thing that goes on Schedule A. There are many other itemized deductions which contribute toward offseting the standard deduction.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry 4plex but mortgage interest isnt the only thing that goes on Schedule A. There are many other itemized deductions which contribute toward offseting the standard deduction.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry 4plex but mortgage interest isnt the only thing that goes on Schedule A. There are many other itemized deductions which contribute toward offseting the standard deduction.

[Anonymous]

The story continues –

This home is now for sale, again!

http://www.sanmarcosteam.com/page.cfm?page=HomeDetail&ID=550398

[Author]

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