Some numbers

[SD Realtor]

Hi Rus

Here are the stats, I just confined it to a full year search instead of 6 month increments. Also per the 91913 is it detached homes only. Also the exp/canc/with are summed up.

solds exp/canc/with avg price

09 60 92 479k
08 56 142 558k
07 59 192 811k
06 79 161 832k
05 93 90 841k
04 136 62 722k
03 86 71 558k

As this is your neighborhood you have better insights then I would here. However more rural areas like this have drastic variety of home sizes, types and lot sizes. Thus the prices vary alot more widely. Still the numbers seem to show the same secular pattern as one would expect. Here we are with still 45 days left and the sales total have exceeded 07 and 08. Similarly the exp/canc/with for 09 will come nowhere near 07-08. Also as the numbers show the volume peak in 04 would be consistent with outlier areas falling apart sooner then more suburban areas.

[SD Realtor]

OCR I would totally agree with you about the leading in indicators. Prices follow in a much slower manner. The typical ideology of sellers in denial is that they need to slapped in the face by the market before they respond. Especially on the heels of bubbled appreciated. The 2/2 market numbers are actually better then what is posted because we have not included pendings. True some of them may fail but more will be sold then will drop to exp/canc/with. A flat market number? My guess would be 1/1 but that is not any better then your guess would be.

[SD Realtor]

OCR I would totally agree with you about the leading in indicators. Prices follow in a much slower manner. The typical ideology of sellers in denial is that they need to slapped in the face by the market before they respond. Especially on the heels of bubbled appreciated. The 2/2 market numbers are actually better then what is posted because we have not included pendings. True some of them may fail but more will be sold then will drop to exp/canc/with. A flat market number? My guess would be 1/1 but that is not any better then your guess would be.

[SD Realtor]

OCR I would totally agree with you about the leading in indicators. Prices follow in a much slower manner. The typical ideology of sellers in denial is that they need to slapped in the face by the market before they respond. Especially on the heels of bubbled appreciated. The 2/2 market numbers are actually better then what is posted because we have not included pendings. True some of them may fail but more will be sold then will drop to exp/canc/with. A flat market number? My guess would be 1/1 but that is not any better then your guess would be.

[SD Realtor]

OCR I would totally agree with you about the leading in indicators. Prices follow in a much slower manner. The typical ideology of sellers in denial is that they need to slapped in the face by the market before they respond. Especially on the heels of bubbled appreciated. The 2/2 market numbers are actually better then what is posted because we have not included pendings. True some of them may fail but more will be sold then will drop to exp/canc/with. A flat market number? My guess would be 1/1 but that is not any better then your guess would be.

[SD Realtor]

OCR I would totally agree with you about the leading in indicators. Prices follow in a much slower manner. The typical ideology of sellers in denial is that they need to slapped in the face by the market before they respond. Especially on the heels of bubbled appreciated. The 2/2 market numbers are actually better then what is posted because we have not included pendings. True some of them may fail but more will be sold then will drop to exp/canc/with. A flat market number? My guess would be 1/1 but that is not any better then your guess would be.

[NotCranky]

You are right that the variety in Jamul is extreme. Some people are 20 minutes from downtown and some are 50 or more. There are old double wides and relative palace estates. Right now there are two markets, around and under 600k has been pretty good, especially if the price is decent, over that is dead and there are a lot of fancy homes as a percentage of the only 3000 or so total units for the zip.If you want to, look at the sales of listings over a million or even 800k, for the last year or two compared to the total listed. It’s got to be the record for bad. My particular house only went down by about 25% so far and I have almost built a second, which puts it back at peak at least, However,half of the paper gains is sunk costs and the other half sweat.

Thanks for doing that even though I was teasing. I did let my license go though. This is not a good place to be a dabbler from,like Normal Heights is for example, and I don’t want to go to an office at all. I like working at McDonalds.

[NotCranky]

You are right that the variety in Jamul is extreme. Some people are 20 minutes from downtown and some are 50 or more. There are old double wides and relative palace estates. Right now there are two markets, around and under 600k has been pretty good, especially if the price is decent, over that is dead and there are a lot of fancy homes as a percentage of the only 3000 or so total units for the zip.If you want to, look at the sales of listings over a million or even 800k, for the last year or two compared to the total listed. It’s got to be the record for bad. My particular house only went down by about 25% so far and I have almost built a second, which puts it back at peak at least, However,half of the paper gains is sunk costs and the other half sweat.

Thanks for doing that even though I was teasing. I did let my license go though. This is not a good place to be a dabbler from,like Normal Heights is for example, and I don’t want to go to an office at all. I like working at McDonalds.

[NotCranky]

You are right that the variety in Jamul is extreme. Some people are 20 minutes from downtown and some are 50 or more. There are old double wides and relative palace estates. Right now there are two markets, around and under 600k has been pretty good, especially if the price is decent, over that is dead and there are a lot of fancy homes as a percentage of the only 3000 or so total units for the zip.If you want to, look at the sales of listings over a million or even 800k, for the last year or two compared to the total listed. It’s got to be the record for bad. My particular house only went down by about 25% so far and I have almost built a second, which puts it back at peak at least, However,half of the paper gains is sunk costs and the other half sweat.

Thanks for doing that even though I was teasing. I did let my license go though. This is not a good place to be a dabbler from,like Normal Heights is for example, and I don’t want to go to an office at all. I like working at McDonalds.

[NotCranky]

You are right that the variety in Jamul is extreme. Some people are 20 minutes from downtown and some are 50 or more. There are old double wides and relative palace estates. Right now there are two markets, around and under 600k has been pretty good, especially if the price is decent, over that is dead and there are a lot of fancy homes as a percentage of the only 3000 or so total units for the zip.If you want to, look at the sales of listings over a million or even 800k, for the last year or two compared to the total listed. It’s got to be the record for bad. My particular house only went down by about 25% so far and I have almost built a second, which puts it back at peak at least, However,half of the paper gains is sunk costs and the other half sweat.

Thanks for doing that even though I was teasing. I did let my license go though. This is not a good place to be a dabbler from,like Normal Heights is for example, and I don’t want to go to an office at all. I like working at McDonalds.

[NotCranky]

You are right that the variety in Jamul is extreme. Some people are 20 minutes from downtown and some are 50 or more. There are old double wides and relative palace estates. Right now there are two markets, around and under 600k has been pretty good, especially if the price is decent, over that is dead and there are a lot of fancy homes as a percentage of the only 3000 or so total units for the zip.If you want to, look at the sales of listings over a million or even 800k, for the last year or two compared to the total listed. It’s got to be the record for bad. My particular house only went down by about 25% so far and I have almost built a second, which puts it back at peak at least, However,half of the paper gains is sunk costs and the other half sweat.

Thanks for doing that even though I was teasing. I did let my license go though. This is not a good place to be a dabbler from,like Normal Heights is for example, and I don’t want to go to an office at all. I like working at McDonalds.

[SD Realtor]

No worries… No question about the dichotomy of markets out there. It is like that in other places like Fallbrook. Some people don’t get that. Yep yep yep about the higher end getting slammed out there. Same thing in Fallbrook. Same thing in alot of places. I am waiting for it in Poway and it is sputtering along and really pissing me off. Between the lenders letting people live for free and the fact that people just have no problem waiting, and waiting and waiting, it seems that this is a long drawn out process. Especially with the market bump… it is like the damn let a big spoosh down the river of denial.

[SD Realtor]

No worries… No question about the dichotomy of markets out there. It is like that in other places like Fallbrook. Some people don’t get that. Yep yep yep about the higher end getting slammed out there. Same thing in Fallbrook. Same thing in alot of places. I am waiting for it in Poway and it is sputtering along and really pissing me off. Between the lenders letting people live for free and the fact that people just have no problem waiting, and waiting and waiting, it seems that this is a long drawn out process. Especially with the market bump… it is like the damn let a big spoosh down the river of denial.

[SD Realtor]

No worries… No question about the dichotomy of markets out there. It is like that in other places like Fallbrook. Some people don’t get that. Yep yep yep about the higher end getting slammed out there. Same thing in Fallbrook. Same thing in alot of places. I am waiting for it in Poway and it is sputtering along and really pissing me off. Between the lenders letting people live for free and the fact that people just have no problem waiting, and waiting and waiting, it seems that this is a long drawn out process. Especially with the market bump… it is like the damn let a big spoosh down the river of denial.

[SD Realtor]

No worries… No question about the dichotomy of markets out there. It is like that in other places like Fallbrook. Some people don’t get that. Yep yep yep about the higher end getting slammed out there. Same thing in Fallbrook. Same thing in alot of places. I am waiting for it in Poway and it is sputtering along and really pissing me off. Between the lenders letting people live for free and the fact that people just have no problem waiting, and waiting and waiting, it seems that this is a long drawn out process. Especially with the market bump… it is like the damn let a big spoosh down the river of denial.

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