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sdrealtor.
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April 14, 2009 at 2:43 PM #381470April 14, 2009 at 5:42 PM #380893
sobmaz
ParticipantThe banks now have strict lending standards, so we are told.
Sales are surging, inventory is plunging. The stock market is up 25% and everyone is talking recovery late this year. “glimmers of hope” they call it.
Now, if I were a fence sitter I could see myself seriously sucked into this. In fact, there is a good chance I would be out there buying except that the cash for my house is in CDs that expire late this year so I have to wait. One of the reasons my CDs expire when they do is I was afraid of the time (like now) when emotion would get the best of me.
Anyway, I would guess that upwards of 80% of the “fence sitters” are jumping into the market. Does anyone have a clue when this group of buyers begins to exhaust its self?
April 14, 2009 at 5:42 PM #381165sobmaz
ParticipantThe banks now have strict lending standards, so we are told.
Sales are surging, inventory is plunging. The stock market is up 25% and everyone is talking recovery late this year. “glimmers of hope” they call it.
Now, if I were a fence sitter I could see myself seriously sucked into this. In fact, there is a good chance I would be out there buying except that the cash for my house is in CDs that expire late this year so I have to wait. One of the reasons my CDs expire when they do is I was afraid of the time (like now) when emotion would get the best of me.
Anyway, I would guess that upwards of 80% of the “fence sitters” are jumping into the market. Does anyone have a clue when this group of buyers begins to exhaust its self?
April 14, 2009 at 5:42 PM #381354sobmaz
ParticipantThe banks now have strict lending standards, so we are told.
Sales are surging, inventory is plunging. The stock market is up 25% and everyone is talking recovery late this year. “glimmers of hope” they call it.
Now, if I were a fence sitter I could see myself seriously sucked into this. In fact, there is a good chance I would be out there buying except that the cash for my house is in CDs that expire late this year so I have to wait. One of the reasons my CDs expire when they do is I was afraid of the time (like now) when emotion would get the best of me.
Anyway, I would guess that upwards of 80% of the “fence sitters” are jumping into the market. Does anyone have a clue when this group of buyers begins to exhaust its self?
April 14, 2009 at 5:42 PM #381402sobmaz
ParticipantThe banks now have strict lending standards, so we are told.
Sales are surging, inventory is plunging. The stock market is up 25% and everyone is talking recovery late this year. “glimmers of hope” they call it.
Now, if I were a fence sitter I could see myself seriously sucked into this. In fact, there is a good chance I would be out there buying except that the cash for my house is in CDs that expire late this year so I have to wait. One of the reasons my CDs expire when they do is I was afraid of the time (like now) when emotion would get the best of me.
Anyway, I would guess that upwards of 80% of the “fence sitters” are jumping into the market. Does anyone have a clue when this group of buyers begins to exhaust its self?
April 14, 2009 at 5:42 PM #381530sobmaz
ParticipantThe banks now have strict lending standards, so we are told.
Sales are surging, inventory is plunging. The stock market is up 25% and everyone is talking recovery late this year. “glimmers of hope” they call it.
Now, if I were a fence sitter I could see myself seriously sucked into this. In fact, there is a good chance I would be out there buying except that the cash for my house is in CDs that expire late this year so I have to wait. One of the reasons my CDs expire when they do is I was afraid of the time (like now) when emotion would get the best of me.
Anyway, I would guess that upwards of 80% of the “fence sitters” are jumping into the market. Does anyone have a clue when this group of buyers begins to exhaust its self?
April 15, 2009 at 9:21 AM #381251peterb
ParticipantI think it’s important to keep in mind how banks get revenue and what their cost structures are like. This gives you insight into the sustainability and possible growth of their business model.
Banks get revenue from loan payments and fees. They have costs for depositors, employees and operations overhead. Now their costs have not gone away, but much of their revenue has…..collecting on mortgages, credit cards and other loans. As defaults increase, they’re losing valuable revenue to sustain their operations. How long can this continue before they must modify their businesses? I’m not taking into account their balance sheet, because they’ve been given a “pass” on regulation, yet again, for their survival. But make no mistake, their business model is in real jeopardy. Time will show this.
Unemployment is at 15% for the U-6 in the nation and maybe near 20% for CA. This number is not stabilizing nor is it shrinking. NOD’s are at all time highs and growing. These are leading indicators of disaster, not a bottom.
April 15, 2009 at 9:21 AM #381522peterb
ParticipantI think it’s important to keep in mind how banks get revenue and what their cost structures are like. This gives you insight into the sustainability and possible growth of their business model.
Banks get revenue from loan payments and fees. They have costs for depositors, employees and operations overhead. Now their costs have not gone away, but much of their revenue has…..collecting on mortgages, credit cards and other loans. As defaults increase, they’re losing valuable revenue to sustain their operations. How long can this continue before they must modify their businesses? I’m not taking into account their balance sheet, because they’ve been given a “pass” on regulation, yet again, for their survival. But make no mistake, their business model is in real jeopardy. Time will show this.
Unemployment is at 15% for the U-6 in the nation and maybe near 20% for CA. This number is not stabilizing nor is it shrinking. NOD’s are at all time highs and growing. These are leading indicators of disaster, not a bottom.
April 15, 2009 at 9:21 AM #381712peterb
ParticipantI think it’s important to keep in mind how banks get revenue and what their cost structures are like. This gives you insight into the sustainability and possible growth of their business model.
Banks get revenue from loan payments and fees. They have costs for depositors, employees and operations overhead. Now their costs have not gone away, but much of their revenue has…..collecting on mortgages, credit cards and other loans. As defaults increase, they’re losing valuable revenue to sustain their operations. How long can this continue before they must modify their businesses? I’m not taking into account their balance sheet, because they’ve been given a “pass” on regulation, yet again, for their survival. But make no mistake, their business model is in real jeopardy. Time will show this.
Unemployment is at 15% for the U-6 in the nation and maybe near 20% for CA. This number is not stabilizing nor is it shrinking. NOD’s are at all time highs and growing. These are leading indicators of disaster, not a bottom.
April 15, 2009 at 9:21 AM #381759peterb
ParticipantI think it’s important to keep in mind how banks get revenue and what their cost structures are like. This gives you insight into the sustainability and possible growth of their business model.
Banks get revenue from loan payments and fees. They have costs for depositors, employees and operations overhead. Now their costs have not gone away, but much of their revenue has…..collecting on mortgages, credit cards and other loans. As defaults increase, they’re losing valuable revenue to sustain their operations. How long can this continue before they must modify their businesses? I’m not taking into account their balance sheet, because they’ve been given a “pass” on regulation, yet again, for their survival. But make no mistake, their business model is in real jeopardy. Time will show this.
Unemployment is at 15% for the U-6 in the nation and maybe near 20% for CA. This number is not stabilizing nor is it shrinking. NOD’s are at all time highs and growing. These are leading indicators of disaster, not a bottom.
April 15, 2009 at 9:21 AM #381888peterb
ParticipantI think it’s important to keep in mind how banks get revenue and what their cost structures are like. This gives you insight into the sustainability and possible growth of their business model.
Banks get revenue from loan payments and fees. They have costs for depositors, employees and operations overhead. Now their costs have not gone away, but much of their revenue has…..collecting on mortgages, credit cards and other loans. As defaults increase, they’re losing valuable revenue to sustain their operations. How long can this continue before they must modify their businesses? I’m not taking into account their balance sheet, because they’ve been given a “pass” on regulation, yet again, for their survival. But make no mistake, their business model is in real jeopardy. Time will show this.
Unemployment is at 15% for the U-6 in the nation and maybe near 20% for CA. This number is not stabilizing nor is it shrinking. NOD’s are at all time highs and growing. These are leading indicators of disaster, not a bottom.
April 15, 2009 at 9:40 AM #381276fun4vnay2
Participantdonaldduckmoore:
The bank did reduce his principal amount if my friend understands it properly.
Actually, my colleague is too naive to understand how come he got this deal.
But he knows one thing for sure: Instead of paying $4k for 26 years, now he has to pay $2k for 30 years to own the house.and he is a happy man!!
April 15, 2009 at 9:40 AM #381547fun4vnay2
Participantdonaldduckmoore:
The bank did reduce his principal amount if my friend understands it properly.
Actually, my colleague is too naive to understand how come he got this deal.
But he knows one thing for sure: Instead of paying $4k for 26 years, now he has to pay $2k for 30 years to own the house.and he is a happy man!!
April 15, 2009 at 9:40 AM #381737fun4vnay2
Participantdonaldduckmoore:
The bank did reduce his principal amount if my friend understands it properly.
Actually, my colleague is too naive to understand how come he got this deal.
But he knows one thing for sure: Instead of paying $4k for 26 years, now he has to pay $2k for 30 years to own the house.and he is a happy man!!
April 15, 2009 at 9:40 AM #381784fun4vnay2
Participantdonaldduckmoore:
The bank did reduce his principal amount if my friend understands it properly.
Actually, my colleague is too naive to understand how come he got this deal.
But he knows one thing for sure: Instead of paying $4k for 26 years, now he has to pay $2k for 30 years to own the house.and he is a happy man!!
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