Skyranch in Santee

[briansd1]

I absolutely agree with flu and sdrealtor. The prices at Skyranch are simply out of proportion.

10 years from now, the upgrades will be worthless.

Did you guys notice who the earth-tone browns of late are getting so tiresome and dated?

I have always believed that historical proportions will return, if you have enough patience.

[Coronita]

[quote]
Yes, they are nice areas with great locations, but don’t be suprised if you still see another 10-20% drop in average prices once the shadow inventory hits those areas. Sky Ranch is very new, so there is less chance of that here. These homes were built in 2008, after the boom/crazy times. Not that we couldn’t see another 10% drop, it’s just that there is less of a chance of that out here, in my opinion, because a majority of the correction has already taken place
[/quote]

Also, I don’t follow your logic about why you think there are shadow inventories that hits in “those” areas but you don’t think there would be any inventory issues in Santee. I think that it’s pretty safe to say *most* people shopping for an $800k ish home are probably more likely to be looking in 4s/CV/LJish areas to begin with so demand is “those” areas are already higher relative to Santee at the same price point. If/when supply suddenly overruns demand, pushing prices down in those area, surrounding areas will be likewise pushed down…Where’s the demand going to be for the $800k markets in Santee? Also, what makes you so think there isn’t any funky financing going on in Santee. I’d surmise that especially in a newer area, with less established credibility of older owners, there is a higher risk of questionable financing and stability. BTW: several homes in 4S/CV have been build after 2008/2009 and in 2010 at those price points too…Also, in san diego, clearly we don’t have a short supply of land.

Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?

[Coronita]

[quote]
Yes, they are nice areas with great locations, but don’t be suprised if you still see another 10-20% drop in average prices once the shadow inventory hits those areas. Sky Ranch is very new, so there is less chance of that here. These homes were built in 2008, after the boom/crazy times. Not that we couldn’t see another 10% drop, it’s just that there is less of a chance of that out here, in my opinion, because a majority of the correction has already taken place
[/quote]

Also, I don’t follow your logic about why you think there are shadow inventories that hits in “those” areas but you don’t think there would be any inventory issues in Santee. I think that it’s pretty safe to say *most* people shopping for an $800k ish home are probably more likely to be looking in 4s/CV/LJish areas to begin with so demand is “those” areas are already higher relative to Santee at the same price point. If/when supply suddenly overruns demand, pushing prices down in those area, surrounding areas will be likewise pushed down…Where’s the demand going to be for the $800k markets in Santee? Also, what makes you so think there isn’t any funky financing going on in Santee. I’d surmise that especially in a newer area, with less established credibility of older owners, there is a higher risk of questionable financing and stability. BTW: several homes in 4S/CV have been build after 2008/2009 and in 2010 at those price points too…Also, in san diego, clearly we don’t have a short supply of land.

Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?

[Coronita]

[quote]
Yes, they are nice areas with great locations, but don’t be suprised if you still see another 10-20% drop in average prices once the shadow inventory hits those areas. Sky Ranch is very new, so there is less chance of that here. These homes were built in 2008, after the boom/crazy times. Not that we couldn’t see another 10% drop, it’s just that there is less of a chance of that out here, in my opinion, because a majority of the correction has already taken place
[/quote]

Also, I don’t follow your logic about why you think there are shadow inventories that hits in “those” areas but you don’t think there would be any inventory issues in Santee. I think that it’s pretty safe to say *most* people shopping for an $800k ish home are probably more likely to be looking in 4s/CV/LJish areas to begin with so demand is “those” areas are already higher relative to Santee at the same price point. If/when supply suddenly overruns demand, pushing prices down in those area, surrounding areas will be likewise pushed down…Where’s the demand going to be for the $800k markets in Santee? Also, what makes you so think there isn’t any funky financing going on in Santee. I’d surmise that especially in a newer area, with less established credibility of older owners, there is a higher risk of questionable financing and stability. BTW: several homes in 4S/CV have been build after 2008/2009 and in 2010 at those price points too…Also, in san diego, clearly we don’t have a short supply of land.

Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?

[Coronita]

[quote]
Yes, they are nice areas with great locations, but don’t be suprised if you still see another 10-20% drop in average prices once the shadow inventory hits those areas. Sky Ranch is very new, so there is less chance of that here. These homes were built in 2008, after the boom/crazy times. Not that we couldn’t see another 10% drop, it’s just that there is less of a chance of that out here, in my opinion, because a majority of the correction has already taken place
[/quote]

Also, I don’t follow your logic about why you think there are shadow inventories that hits in “those” areas but you don’t think there would be any inventory issues in Santee. I think that it’s pretty safe to say *most* people shopping for an $800k ish home are probably more likely to be looking in 4s/CV/LJish areas to begin with so demand is “those” areas are already higher relative to Santee at the same price point. If/when supply suddenly overruns demand, pushing prices down in those area, surrounding areas will be likewise pushed down…Where’s the demand going to be for the $800k markets in Santee? Also, what makes you so think there isn’t any funky financing going on in Santee. I’d surmise that especially in a newer area, with less established credibility of older owners, there is a higher risk of questionable financing and stability. BTW: several homes in 4S/CV have been build after 2008/2009 and in 2010 at those price points too…Also, in san diego, clearly we don’t have a short supply of land.

Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?

[Coronita]

[quote]
Yes, they are nice areas with great locations, but don’t be suprised if you still see another 10-20% drop in average prices once the shadow inventory hits those areas. Sky Ranch is very new, so there is less chance of that here. These homes were built in 2008, after the boom/crazy times. Not that we couldn’t see another 10% drop, it’s just that there is less of a chance of that out here, in my opinion, because a majority of the correction has already taken place
[/quote]

Also, I don’t follow your logic about why you think there are shadow inventories that hits in “those” areas but you don’t think there would be any inventory issues in Santee. I think that it’s pretty safe to say *most* people shopping for an $800k ish home are probably more likely to be looking in 4s/CV/LJish areas to begin with so demand is “those” areas are already higher relative to Santee at the same price point. If/when supply suddenly overruns demand, pushing prices down in those area, surrounding areas will be likewise pushed down…Where’s the demand going to be for the $800k markets in Santee? Also, what makes you so think there isn’t any funky financing going on in Santee. I’d surmise that especially in a newer area, with less established credibility of older owners, there is a higher risk of questionable financing and stability. BTW: several homes in 4S/CV have been build after 2008/2009 and in 2010 at those price points too…Also, in san diego, clearly we don’t have a short supply of land.

Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?

[an]

[quote=flu]Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?[/quote]
I actually visited Sky Ranch/4S/LJ/CV/Stonebridge. At $800k, it’s definitely the upper echelon of Santee. I don’t think you will get bang for your buck there. However, the $699k one is much more reasonable. If it’s $599k, then I think it would be a great deal. I think they all have their place. Just like Escondido and Chula Vista, Santee is trying to have pockets of high priced houses. You do get much more value for your money in Santee, Chula, Escondido, etc. The view is fantastic in Sky Ranch and the lot size is huge. So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. I do see the draw for these houses. flu, your car analogy is a little off. I think comparing a V8 Genesis to a 328i would be a much more appropriate analogy. Different stroke for different folks. Like you said, the majority won’t buy a $800k+ house in Chula/Santee/Escondido. That’s why the supply of those houses in those areas are much lower. However, for those who are in the minority who would consider those area, they get rewarded w/ value. Comparable house w/ similar lot size and view in Carmel Valley would be around $1.5M, in RB, probably around $1.3M. So, for some, lot size and view trump zip code.

[an]

[quote=flu]Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?[/quote]
I actually visited Sky Ranch/4S/LJ/CV/Stonebridge. At $800k, it’s definitely the upper echelon of Santee. I don’t think you will get bang for your buck there. However, the $699k one is much more reasonable. If it’s $599k, then I think it would be a great deal. I think they all have their place. Just like Escondido and Chula Vista, Santee is trying to have pockets of high priced houses. You do get much more value for your money in Santee, Chula, Escondido, etc. The view is fantastic in Sky Ranch and the lot size is huge. So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. I do see the draw for these houses. flu, your car analogy is a little off. I think comparing a V8 Genesis to a 328i would be a much more appropriate analogy. Different stroke for different folks. Like you said, the majority won’t buy a $800k+ house in Chula/Santee/Escondido. That’s why the supply of those houses in those areas are much lower. However, for those who are in the minority who would consider those area, they get rewarded w/ value. Comparable house w/ similar lot size and view in Carmel Valley would be around $1.5M, in RB, probably around $1.3M. So, for some, lot size and view trump zip code.

[an]

[quote=flu]Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?[/quote]
I actually visited Sky Ranch/4S/LJ/CV/Stonebridge. At $800k, it’s definitely the upper echelon of Santee. I don’t think you will get bang for your buck there. However, the $699k one is much more reasonable. If it’s $599k, then I think it would be a great deal. I think they all have their place. Just like Escondido and Chula Vista, Santee is trying to have pockets of high priced houses. You do get much more value for your money in Santee, Chula, Escondido, etc. The view is fantastic in Sky Ranch and the lot size is huge. So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. I do see the draw for these houses. flu, your car analogy is a little off. I think comparing a V8 Genesis to a 328i would be a much more appropriate analogy. Different stroke for different folks. Like you said, the majority won’t buy a $800k+ house in Chula/Santee/Escondido. That’s why the supply of those houses in those areas are much lower. However, for those who are in the minority who would consider those area, they get rewarded w/ value. Comparable house w/ similar lot size and view in Carmel Valley would be around $1.5M, in RB, probably around $1.3M. So, for some, lot size and view trump zip code.

[an]

[quote=flu]Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?[/quote]
I actually visited Sky Ranch/4S/LJ/CV/Stonebridge. At $800k, it’s definitely the upper echelon of Santee. I don’t think you will get bang for your buck there. However, the $699k one is much more reasonable. If it’s $599k, then I think it would be a great deal. I think they all have their place. Just like Escondido and Chula Vista, Santee is trying to have pockets of high priced houses. You do get much more value for your money in Santee, Chula, Escondido, etc. The view is fantastic in Sky Ranch and the lot size is huge. So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. I do see the draw for these houses. flu, your car analogy is a little off. I think comparing a V8 Genesis to a 328i would be a much more appropriate analogy. Different stroke for different folks. Like you said, the majority won’t buy a $800k+ house in Chula/Santee/Escondido. That’s why the supply of those houses in those areas are much lower. However, for those who are in the minority who would consider those area, they get rewarded w/ value. Comparable house w/ similar lot size and view in Carmel Valley would be around $1.5M, in RB, probably around $1.3M. So, for some, lot size and view trump zip code.

[an]

[quote=flu]Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?[/quote]
I actually visited Sky Ranch/4S/LJ/CV/Stonebridge. At $800k, it’s definitely the upper echelon of Santee. I don’t think you will get bang for your buck there. However, the $699k one is much more reasonable. If it’s $599k, then I think it would be a great deal. I think they all have their place. Just like Escondido and Chula Vista, Santee is trying to have pockets of high priced houses. You do get much more value for your money in Santee, Chula, Escondido, etc. The view is fantastic in Sky Ranch and the lot size is huge. So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. I do see the draw for these houses. flu, your car analogy is a little off. I think comparing a V8 Genesis to a 328i would be a much more appropriate analogy. Different stroke for different folks. Like you said, the majority won’t buy a $800k+ house in Chula/Santee/Escondido. That’s why the supply of those houses in those areas are much lower. However, for those who are in the minority who would consider those area, they get rewarded w/ value. Comparable house w/ similar lot size and view in Carmel Valley would be around $1.5M, in RB, probably around $1.3M. So, for some, lot size and view trump zip code.

[briansd1]

[quote=AN]So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. [/quote]

AN, I think that both you and flu have identified a key element here.

People shop across zip codes and even different types of housing.

I’ve had people point to inventory in one neighborhood or even one building (downtown) to say that certain areas are immune from price drops.

A couple looking at buying a condo downtown, might consider a townhouse in Mission Valley or even a single family house depending on the relative value.

I believe that most buyers look at what they can afford on a monthly basis, then they look at the relative value in different neighborhoods and zips. It’s easy to do now thanks to Internet listings that show the monthly payment next to the list price.

[briansd1]

[quote=AN]So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. [/quote]

AN, I think that both you and flu have identified a key element here.

People shop across zip codes and even different types of housing.

I’ve had people point to inventory in one neighborhood or even one building (downtown) to say that certain areas are immune from price drops.

A couple looking at buying a condo downtown, might consider a townhouse in Mission Valley or even a single family house depending on the relative value.

I believe that most buyers look at what they can afford on a monthly basis, then they look at the relative value in different neighborhoods and zips. It’s easy to do now thanks to Internet listings that show the monthly payment next to the list price.

[briansd1]

[quote=AN]So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. [/quote]

AN, I think that both you and flu have identified a key element here.

People shop across zip codes and even different types of housing.

I’ve had people point to inventory in one neighborhood or even one building (downtown) to say that certain areas are immune from price drops.

A couple looking at buying a condo downtown, might consider a townhouse in Mission Valley or even a single family house depending on the relative value.

I believe that most buyers look at what they can afford on a monthly basis, then they look at the relative value in different neighborhoods and zips. It’s easy to do now thanks to Internet listings that show the monthly payment next to the list price.

[briansd1]

[quote=AN]So, you’re trading zip code for large lot and a view. [/quote]

AN, I think that both you and flu have identified a key element here.

People shop across zip codes and even different types of housing.

I’ve had people point to inventory in one neighborhood or even one building (downtown) to say that certain areas are immune from price drops.

A couple looking at buying a condo downtown, might consider a townhouse in Mission Valley or even a single family house depending on the relative value.

I believe that most buyers look at what they can afford on a monthly basis, then they look at the relative value in different neighborhoods and zips. It’s easy to do now thanks to Internet listings that show the monthly payment next to the list price.

[Author]

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