Shall we buy or never in San Diego or wait for more depreciation?

[an]

[quote=temeculaguy]… why I think 500k for a 2k rental is insane, I don’t even think 380k is right, I like 100-150x rent multipliers. Even if it’s at the beach, shouldn’t the fair rent be the decider of underlying value. If the place at the beach is worth more, then it should rent for more. If the place at the beach rents for half the cost of owning, then rent at the beach, if an inland house costs the same to buy or rent, then buy that house if you rent there. Formulas work everywhere, advice like “it’s a great time to buy” or “it’s a bad time to buy” that doesn’t work everywhere.[/quote]
TG, I wish I can get 100-150x rent multipliers around here. I just don’t see that happening with today’s rate. The area I bought, at the bottom of the last crash, it was around 125x rent, but rate was also at 8-9%. Something that was renting for $1200/month was going for around $150k. With 20% down and interest at 8%, PI was ~$800. Today, something that would rent for $1300/month is going for ~$190k. With 20% down and interest at 5%, PI would be ~$800. Something that rent for $1700/month is going for around $360k right now (was around $330k late 2008). PI today would be ~$1500/month and it was around $1400/month last year. If we do get 100-150x rent again, such house would have to drop another 30-50% from today’s level or 55-70% from peak.

I did some more digging and I think there’s a different rent multiplier for condo vs house. Some example, http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090068196-12655_Camino_Mira_Del_Mar_224_San_Diego_CA_92130 and http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090065246-10758_Dabney_35_San_Diego_CA_92126. The CV one can probably rent for ~$1700 while the MM one can probably rent for $1300. Both of those are w/in the 100-150x rent multiplier. However, I can’t find and SFR that fall into the 100-150x range, not even in MM. Can it possibly be that, SFR have a higher rent multiplier than condo?

Using a 2/2 condo in MM that current rent for $1300, it used to rent for around $900 in 1996. That condo today is selling for 180-190k. It sold for $78k in 1998 (http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-BCC73314-10758_Dabney_Dr_33_San_Diego_CA_92126). However, I can’t find any SFR around this same area selling for 86x rent multiple in the mid 90s.

[temeculaguy]

You are right AN, the multipler goes up with the sfr’s and the sq feet. A 2k rent sfr up here is 300-350k right now, it was 260-300k a year ago. So it was 150x and below, now it’s crept above that, but it’s still close. Big sfr’s aren’t good rentals, I just use the numbers for comparisons to value.

The example I used dropped from 400k to 150k, so 55-70% from peak isn’t impossible, it happened. It may not happen in your town, it may not happen again, but it happened.

[temeculaguy]

You are right AN, the multipler goes up with the sfr’s and the sq feet. A 2k rent sfr up here is 300-350k right now, it was 260-300k a year ago. So it was 150x and below, now it’s crept above that, but it’s still close. Big sfr’s aren’t good rentals, I just use the numbers for comparisons to value.

The example I used dropped from 400k to 150k, so 55-70% from peak isn’t impossible, it happened. It may not happen in your town, it may not happen again, but it happened.

[temeculaguy]

You are right AN, the multipler goes up with the sfr’s and the sq feet. A 2k rent sfr up here is 300-350k right now, it was 260-300k a year ago. So it was 150x and below, now it’s crept above that, but it’s still close. Big sfr’s aren’t good rentals, I just use the numbers for comparisons to value.

The example I used dropped from 400k to 150k, so 55-70% from peak isn’t impossible, it happened. It may not happen in your town, it may not happen again, but it happened.

[temeculaguy]

You are right AN, the multipler goes up with the sfr’s and the sq feet. A 2k rent sfr up here is 300-350k right now, it was 260-300k a year ago. So it was 150x and below, now it’s crept above that, but it’s still close. Big sfr’s aren’t good rentals, I just use the numbers for comparisons to value.

The example I used dropped from 400k to 150k, so 55-70% from peak isn’t impossible, it happened. It may not happen in your town, it may not happen again, but it happened.

[temeculaguy]

You are right AN, the multipler goes up with the sfr’s and the sq feet. A 2k rent sfr up here is 300-350k right now, it was 260-300k a year ago. So it was 150x and below, now it’s crept above that, but it’s still close. Big sfr’s aren’t good rentals, I just use the numbers for comparisons to value.

The example I used dropped from 400k to 150k, so 55-70% from peak isn’t impossible, it happened. It may not happen in your town, it may not happen again, but it happened.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

In Murrieta you can find a SFH for under 150K, maybe built in the 80’s maybe 1000-1500 sqf. Probably in need of some TLC.

Just have to look.

You could have gotten some of these for around 80 to 120K a year ago.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

In Murrieta you can find a SFH for under 150K, maybe built in the 80’s maybe 1000-1500 sqf. Probably in need of some TLC.

Just have to look.

You could have gotten some of these for around 80 to 120K a year ago.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

In Murrieta you can find a SFH for under 150K, maybe built in the 80’s maybe 1000-1500 sqf. Probably in need of some TLC.

Just have to look.

You could have gotten some of these for around 80 to 120K a year ago.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

In Murrieta you can find a SFH for under 150K, maybe built in the 80’s maybe 1000-1500 sqf. Probably in need of some TLC.

Just have to look.

You could have gotten some of these for around 80 to 120K a year ago.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

In Murrieta you can find a SFH for under 150K, maybe built in the 80’s maybe 1000-1500 sqf. Probably in need of some TLC.

Just have to look.

You could have gotten some of these for around 80 to 120K a year ago.

[Scarlett]

Townhouses in UTC, built in mid 80s, 3 bdr >1500 sf sell for ~550-600K and rent for low 2000s. 250x. I wish I could get $1500 rent!!! Or the townhouse for 400K! 300K??? No way, no how. I hear these multipliers of 150x, and I think those are totally wild dreams which I am going to ignore, otherwise I’ll go crazy with frustration.

It’s true the rents have decreased a little bit. School district is pretty good though not quite as good as Poway Unified or Del mar.

FWIW, I have seen houses in PUSD, 4 bdr ~2000sf that rent for mid 2000s but cost about 550-600K. So the multiplier seems to be around 200-225x.

I just don’t see a scenario in which either rents almost double or the current prices drop another 200K (30%) to get to 150x multiplier.

[Scarlett]

Townhouses in UTC, built in mid 80s, 3 bdr >1500 sf sell for ~550-600K and rent for low 2000s. 250x. I wish I could get $1500 rent!!! Or the townhouse for 400K! 300K??? No way, no how. I hear these multipliers of 150x, and I think those are totally wild dreams which I am going to ignore, otherwise I’ll go crazy with frustration.

It’s true the rents have decreased a little bit. School district is pretty good though not quite as good as Poway Unified or Del mar.

FWIW, I have seen houses in PUSD, 4 bdr ~2000sf that rent for mid 2000s but cost about 550-600K. So the multiplier seems to be around 200-225x.

I just don’t see a scenario in which either rents almost double or the current prices drop another 200K (30%) to get to 150x multiplier.

[Scarlett]

Townhouses in UTC, built in mid 80s, 3 bdr >1500 sf sell for ~550-600K and rent for low 2000s. 250x. I wish I could get $1500 rent!!! Or the townhouse for 400K! 300K??? No way, no how. I hear these multipliers of 150x, and I think those are totally wild dreams which I am going to ignore, otherwise I’ll go crazy with frustration.

It’s true the rents have decreased a little bit. School district is pretty good though not quite as good as Poway Unified or Del mar.

FWIW, I have seen houses in PUSD, 4 bdr ~2000sf that rent for mid 2000s but cost about 550-600K. So the multiplier seems to be around 200-225x.

I just don’t see a scenario in which either rents almost double or the current prices drop another 200K (30%) to get to 150x multiplier.

[Scarlett]

Townhouses in UTC, built in mid 80s, 3 bdr >1500 sf sell for ~550-600K and rent for low 2000s. 250x. I wish I could get $1500 rent!!! Or the townhouse for 400K! 300K??? No way, no how. I hear these multipliers of 150x, and I think those are totally wild dreams which I am going to ignore, otherwise I’ll go crazy with frustration.

It’s true the rents have decreased a little bit. School district is pretty good though not quite as good as Poway Unified or Del mar.

FWIW, I have seen houses in PUSD, 4 bdr ~2000sf that rent for mid 2000s but cost about 550-600K. So the multiplier seems to be around 200-225x.

I just don’t see a scenario in which either rents almost double or the current prices drop another 200K (30%) to get to 150x multiplier.

[Author]

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