Seeking the opinion of the buyers out there.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=waiting for bottom]
If rationalization is “I bought a house I like with the payment I can afford” then, yes, I have rationalized.

Seriously, you guys think there is no risk to timing the bottom? What do you think rates will do between now and then? I’ll give you a hint, not down.

Again – if my recent purchase falls 20% but rates go to 7.5%, I will have the same payment. There is equal – at best for your argument – chance of these happening. From my POV, 7.5% is a certainty, 20% down is not.[/quote]

I don’t think “rational” and “timing the bottom” could come together in the same sentence, since it is the seed for great disappointment.
Let me illustrate what I meant. The price bottom is determined the aggregate demands from the buyers as a group and the aggregate supplies from the sellers as a group. A bottom seeker has a price target of what it should be…and he might be very well correct in his maths. But the trouble is that the buyers as a group is not rational, the very fact that they criticize “knife catchers are always with us”, allows the buyers as a group to bid up the price to be higher than what a rational person think where the exact bottom price lies.
A true rational bottom price will only exist when all buyers in the market are rational. Therefore, the bottom price hunter who think themselves as very rational, will unavoidably be outbid every single time, as they have been. This is especially true in this cycle when the banks are more rational in their selling pricing strategy than a normal seller would be.

[Rt.66]

If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.

[Rt.66]

If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.

[Rt.66]

If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.

[Rt.66]

If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.

[Rt.66]

If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.[/quote]

I’d agree with this – we’re in escrow right now, closing within 2 weeks.

Is this the bottom? I don’t know. It may still have a way to fall, and it certainly will depend on which area you are looking in as well.

However, in the previous peak->trough cycles, the VAST majority of the actual price depreciation was in during the first few years of falling prices. The rest of the trough was generally flat appreciation. If you buy at the peak, or within a year or two of the peak, you really are in trouble. In previous cycles, if you bought 3-4 years out from the peak, you may not have timed the absolute bottom, but you will be in at a reasonable price and payment. A number of Rich’s articles this year show that this is the case now, at least in a sizeable chunk of San Diego’s areas. As far as I can see, we’ve seen the majority of price depreciation (at least in areas I was looking to buy in).

I’m not trying to time the absolute bottom – maybe if I was looking for an investment I would, but for my own home, I’m looking for a reasonable price, and a payment which is equivalent or better than rent for a similar place. Those conditions have been met, in my opinion, and with the caveat that I’m buying in an inland area – if I were set on buying something at the coast, I’d probably wait another year. My guess is that we’re at a similar point to ’95 in the previous cycle. If you had bought in ’95 in the previous cycle, you did just fine, even though you missed the absolute bottom by 2 years or so.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.[/quote]

I’d agree with this – we’re in escrow right now, closing within 2 weeks.

Is this the bottom? I don’t know. It may still have a way to fall, and it certainly will depend on which area you are looking in as well.

However, in the previous peak->trough cycles, the VAST majority of the actual price depreciation was in during the first few years of falling prices. The rest of the trough was generally flat appreciation. If you buy at the peak, or within a year or two of the peak, you really are in trouble. In previous cycles, if you bought 3-4 years out from the peak, you may not have timed the absolute bottom, but you will be in at a reasonable price and payment. A number of Rich’s articles this year show that this is the case now, at least in a sizeable chunk of San Diego’s areas. As far as I can see, we’ve seen the majority of price depreciation (at least in areas I was looking to buy in).

I’m not trying to time the absolute bottom – maybe if I was looking for an investment I would, but for my own home, I’m looking for a reasonable price, and a payment which is equivalent or better than rent for a similar place. Those conditions have been met, in my opinion, and with the caveat that I’m buying in an inland area – if I were set on buying something at the coast, I’d probably wait another year. My guess is that we’re at a similar point to ’95 in the previous cycle. If you had bought in ’95 in the previous cycle, you did just fine, even though you missed the absolute bottom by 2 years or so.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.[/quote]

I’d agree with this – we’re in escrow right now, closing within 2 weeks.

Is this the bottom? I don’t know. It may still have a way to fall, and it certainly will depend on which area you are looking in as well.

However, in the previous peak->trough cycles, the VAST majority of the actual price depreciation was in during the first few years of falling prices. The rest of the trough was generally flat appreciation. If you buy at the peak, or within a year or two of the peak, you really are in trouble. In previous cycles, if you bought 3-4 years out from the peak, you may not have timed the absolute bottom, but you will be in at a reasonable price and payment. A number of Rich’s articles this year show that this is the case now, at least in a sizeable chunk of San Diego’s areas. As far as I can see, we’ve seen the majority of price depreciation (at least in areas I was looking to buy in).

I’m not trying to time the absolute bottom – maybe if I was looking for an investment I would, but for my own home, I’m looking for a reasonable price, and a payment which is equivalent or better than rent for a similar place. Those conditions have been met, in my opinion, and with the caveat that I’m buying in an inland area – if I were set on buying something at the coast, I’d probably wait another year. My guess is that we’re at a similar point to ’95 in the previous cycle. If you had bought in ’95 in the previous cycle, you did just fine, even though you missed the absolute bottom by 2 years or so.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.[/quote]

I’d agree with this – we’re in escrow right now, closing within 2 weeks.

Is this the bottom? I don’t know. It may still have a way to fall, and it certainly will depend on which area you are looking in as well.

However, in the previous peak->trough cycles, the VAST majority of the actual price depreciation was in during the first few years of falling prices. The rest of the trough was generally flat appreciation. If you buy at the peak, or within a year or two of the peak, you really are in trouble. In previous cycles, if you bought 3-4 years out from the peak, you may not have timed the absolute bottom, but you will be in at a reasonable price and payment. A number of Rich’s articles this year show that this is the case now, at least in a sizeable chunk of San Diego’s areas. As far as I can see, we’ve seen the majority of price depreciation (at least in areas I was looking to buy in).

I’m not trying to time the absolute bottom – maybe if I was looking for an investment I would, but for my own home, I’m looking for a reasonable price, and a payment which is equivalent or better than rent for a similar place. Those conditions have been met, in my opinion, and with the caveat that I’m buying in an inland area – if I were set on buying something at the coast, I’d probably wait another year. My guess is that we’re at a similar point to ’95 in the previous cycle. If you had bought in ’95 in the previous cycle, you did just fine, even though you missed the absolute bottom by 2 years or so.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.[/quote]

I’d agree with this – we’re in escrow right now, closing within 2 weeks.

Is this the bottom? I don’t know. It may still have a way to fall, and it certainly will depend on which area you are looking in as well.

However, in the previous peak->trough cycles, the VAST majority of the actual price depreciation was in during the first few years of falling prices. The rest of the trough was generally flat appreciation. If you buy at the peak, or within a year or two of the peak, you really are in trouble. In previous cycles, if you bought 3-4 years out from the peak, you may not have timed the absolute bottom, but you will be in at a reasonable price and payment. A number of Rich’s articles this year show that this is the case now, at least in a sizeable chunk of San Diego’s areas. As far as I can see, we’ve seen the majority of price depreciation (at least in areas I was looking to buy in).

I’m not trying to time the absolute bottom – maybe if I was looking for an investment I would, but for my own home, I’m looking for a reasonable price, and a payment which is equivalent or better than rent for a similar place. Those conditions have been met, in my opinion, and with the caveat that I’m buying in an inland area – if I were set on buying something at the coast, I’d probably wait another year. My guess is that we’re at a similar point to ’95 in the previous cycle. If you had bought in ’95 in the previous cycle, you did just fine, even though you missed the absolute bottom by 2 years or so.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.[/quote]

I do not believe we’re in the “Eye of a Depression” storm. While it’s certainly been a more severe recession than anything since ’82, it appears to me that the “PR” as you call it, is more right than wrong. I don’t believe there will be another collapse. In any case, I’d rather be a homeowner if a GD2 DOES come along.

I can tell you that at least in my business (global pharma and medical devices) we ARE seeing upticks, and our hiring freeze has been lifted.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.[/quote]

I do not believe we’re in the “Eye of a Depression” storm. While it’s certainly been a more severe recession than anything since ’82, it appears to me that the “PR” as you call it, is more right than wrong. I don’t believe there will be another collapse. In any case, I’d rather be a homeowner if a GD2 DOES come along.

I can tell you that at least in my business (global pharma and medical devices) we ARE seeing upticks, and our hiring freeze has been lifted.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.[/quote]

I do not believe we’re in the “Eye of a Depression” storm. While it’s certainly been a more severe recession than anything since ’82, it appears to me that the “PR” as you call it, is more right than wrong. I don’t believe there will be another collapse. In any case, I’d rather be a homeowner if a GD2 DOES come along.

I can tell you that at least in my business (global pharma and medical devices) we ARE seeing upticks, and our hiring freeze has been lifted.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]If I could find a common thread amongst buyers I would guess that they believe this is just another recession and NOT GD2 or a Japan style deflationary lost decades.

So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

Great responses, keep ’em coming.[/quote]

I do not believe we’re in the “Eye of a Depression” storm. While it’s certainly been a more severe recession than anything since ’82, it appears to me that the “PR” as you call it, is more right than wrong. I don’t believe there will be another collapse. In any case, I’d rather be a homeowner if a GD2 DOES come along.

I can tell you that at least in my business (global pharma and medical devices) we ARE seeing upticks, and our hiring freeze has been lifted.

[Author]

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