Seeking the opinion of the buyers out there.

[an]

[quote=briansd1]
What does that have to do with the cost of purchase or owning the house?

Plenty of women overpay for jewelry that they pass-on to their kids. The kids never wear it except perhaps for the wedding.

Maybe the kids would rather have a fat trust fund. [/quote]
Jewelry & RE are a mini trust funds in and of itself. It might not be multi-million dollar trust fund, but a gift is a gift. Why does it have to be an account at some bank to be a trust fund? What if it’s 10 properties at $500k each? It has everything to do with it, if you just read what you posted. Here’s what you said:
[quote=briansd1]What you like, the next buyer will not like and will want to rip it out. [/quote]
If I don’t sell it w/in the next 30 years, then it doesn’t really matter what other people think, since they can’t buy my house even if they wanted to. It’s not for sale. 30 years from now, I’m sure what I have today will be dated anyways, which means it’s time to upgrade/update. I doubt I’ll give this house to my kids in 30 years anyways. It’ll probably be more like 60 years, when I die.

[temeculaguy]

Somewhere around 30% of the homes in the country have no mortgage (that’s a negotiable stat in CA, I couldn’t find a CA number I trusted). Many of these are owned by older people and here in CA, prop 13 creates a situation where it is more beneficial to keep a home in the family when people die or need different living arrangements. This is why I am hesitant to factor in pure baby boomer stats as future inventory. In my own family, we never parted with R/E that was purchased in the 1970’s or earlier, maybe one or two of the kids buys out the others, maybe it became a rental if nobody needed or wanted to live there, but you think long and hard about selling it because of the property tax implications. My grandmothers house which she bought in the 1950’s had a yearly tax bill of something like $500 and was worth 500k, that’s 1/10th of a percent and the taxes don’t reset if transfered between family members or kept in trust, you just dont give that up without careful consideration. Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.

[temeculaguy]

Somewhere around 30% of the homes in the country have no mortgage (that’s a negotiable stat in CA, I couldn’t find a CA number I trusted). Many of these are owned by older people and here in CA, prop 13 creates a situation where it is more beneficial to keep a home in the family when people die or need different living arrangements. This is why I am hesitant to factor in pure baby boomer stats as future inventory. In my own family, we never parted with R/E that was purchased in the 1970’s or earlier, maybe one or two of the kids buys out the others, maybe it became a rental if nobody needed or wanted to live there, but you think long and hard about selling it because of the property tax implications. My grandmothers house which she bought in the 1950’s had a yearly tax bill of something like $500 and was worth 500k, that’s 1/10th of a percent and the taxes don’t reset if transfered between family members or kept in trust, you just dont give that up without careful consideration. Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.

[temeculaguy]

Somewhere around 30% of the homes in the country have no mortgage (that’s a negotiable stat in CA, I couldn’t find a CA number I trusted). Many of these are owned by older people and here in CA, prop 13 creates a situation where it is more beneficial to keep a home in the family when people die or need different living arrangements. This is why I am hesitant to factor in pure baby boomer stats as future inventory. In my own family, we never parted with R/E that was purchased in the 1970’s or earlier, maybe one or two of the kids buys out the others, maybe it became a rental if nobody needed or wanted to live there, but you think long and hard about selling it because of the property tax implications. My grandmothers house which she bought in the 1950’s had a yearly tax bill of something like $500 and was worth 500k, that’s 1/10th of a percent and the taxes don’t reset if transfered between family members or kept in trust, you just dont give that up without careful consideration. Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.

[temeculaguy]

Somewhere around 30% of the homes in the country have no mortgage (that’s a negotiable stat in CA, I couldn’t find a CA number I trusted). Many of these are owned by older people and here in CA, prop 13 creates a situation where it is more beneficial to keep a home in the family when people die or need different living arrangements. This is why I am hesitant to factor in pure baby boomer stats as future inventory. In my own family, we never parted with R/E that was purchased in the 1970’s or earlier, maybe one or two of the kids buys out the others, maybe it became a rental if nobody needed or wanted to live there, but you think long and hard about selling it because of the property tax implications. My grandmothers house which she bought in the 1950’s had a yearly tax bill of something like $500 and was worth 500k, that’s 1/10th of a percent and the taxes don’t reset if transfered between family members or kept in trust, you just dont give that up without careful consideration. Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.

[temeculaguy]

Somewhere around 30% of the homes in the country have no mortgage (that’s a negotiable stat in CA, I couldn’t find a CA number I trusted). Many of these are owned by older people and here in CA, prop 13 creates a situation where it is more beneficial to keep a home in the family when people die or need different living arrangements. This is why I am hesitant to factor in pure baby boomer stats as future inventory. In my own family, we never parted with R/E that was purchased in the 1970’s or earlier, maybe one or two of the kids buys out the others, maybe it became a rental if nobody needed or wanted to live there, but you think long and hard about selling it because of the property tax implications. My grandmothers house which she bought in the 1950’s had a yearly tax bill of something like $500 and was worth 500k, that’s 1/10th of a percent and the taxes don’t reset if transfered between family members or kept in trust, you just dont give that up without careful consideration. Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=CA renter]Those echo Boomers already live somewhere. The bubble was unprecedented in the number of young/unqualified people who were able to buy, even in their early 20s! Others are renting.

I’m not thinking about the Boomers downsizing as much as I notice that the very desirable communities are filled with people in their 70s and 80s. Yes, some of their heirs will move in when they pass away, but many of their kids already live locally…freeing up another house.

The stock market decline took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Boomers. They were not prepared for the losses they took, and many will have to resort to “Plan B” (selling the house and cashing out their equity).

Most of them were NEVER expecting to sell their homes for prices that were reached during the bubble. Most of them are sitting on plenty of equity, and there is no reason for them to “hold on” to something when they are still making a nice profit. I think some bulls are being unrealistic in their assumptions about Boomers caring about peak prices. Most of the Boomers I know never thought those prices would ever be reached in the first place. IMHO, very few will “hold on” for peak prices when they can still sell for a nice profit and cash out plenty of equity and move to a senior community or mobile home park or live with their kids.
[/quote]

While there is some truth to the above, what about the echo of the echo boomers,
Last year I think it was the biggest baby boom ever, more so than even during the height of the boomers baby boom. There will be some serious move up demand in about 5 or so years is my guess.

Also I would not count on the boomers downsizing in any numbers for at least another 5 to 10 years so we will need to see what the market looks like at that time is my guess.

Maybe move up and first home meets boomer downsize, that would be my guess as well,

You will just have to take my word for it but the Chinese, Those with the spare change are definitely are looking to buy in coastal Socal (inland not so much), I think you will always have extra demand in Coastal Socal than most of the rest of the country (sorry that is just the price of paradise ).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=CA renter]Those echo Boomers already live somewhere. The bubble was unprecedented in the number of young/unqualified people who were able to buy, even in their early 20s! Others are renting.

I’m not thinking about the Boomers downsizing as much as I notice that the very desirable communities are filled with people in their 70s and 80s. Yes, some of their heirs will move in when they pass away, but many of their kids already live locally…freeing up another house.

The stock market decline took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Boomers. They were not prepared for the losses they took, and many will have to resort to “Plan B” (selling the house and cashing out their equity).

Most of them were NEVER expecting to sell their homes for prices that were reached during the bubble. Most of them are sitting on plenty of equity, and there is no reason for them to “hold on” to something when they are still making a nice profit. I think some bulls are being unrealistic in their assumptions about Boomers caring about peak prices. Most of the Boomers I know never thought those prices would ever be reached in the first place. IMHO, very few will “hold on” for peak prices when they can still sell for a nice profit and cash out plenty of equity and move to a senior community or mobile home park or live with their kids.
[/quote]

While there is some truth to the above, what about the echo of the echo boomers,
Last year I think it was the biggest baby boom ever, more so than even during the height of the boomers baby boom. There will be some serious move up demand in about 5 or so years is my guess.

Also I would not count on the boomers downsizing in any numbers for at least another 5 to 10 years so we will need to see what the market looks like at that time is my guess.

Maybe move up and first home meets boomer downsize, that would be my guess as well,

You will just have to take my word for it but the Chinese, Those with the spare change are definitely are looking to buy in coastal Socal (inland not so much), I think you will always have extra demand in Coastal Socal than most of the rest of the country (sorry that is just the price of paradise ).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=CA renter]Those echo Boomers already live somewhere. The bubble was unprecedented in the number of young/unqualified people who were able to buy, even in their early 20s! Others are renting.

I’m not thinking about the Boomers downsizing as much as I notice that the very desirable communities are filled with people in their 70s and 80s. Yes, some of their heirs will move in when they pass away, but many of their kids already live locally…freeing up another house.

The stock market decline took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Boomers. They were not prepared for the losses they took, and many will have to resort to “Plan B” (selling the house and cashing out their equity).

Most of them were NEVER expecting to sell their homes for prices that were reached during the bubble. Most of them are sitting on plenty of equity, and there is no reason for them to “hold on” to something when they are still making a nice profit. I think some bulls are being unrealistic in their assumptions about Boomers caring about peak prices. Most of the Boomers I know never thought those prices would ever be reached in the first place. IMHO, very few will “hold on” for peak prices when they can still sell for a nice profit and cash out plenty of equity and move to a senior community or mobile home park or live with their kids.
[/quote]

While there is some truth to the above, what about the echo of the echo boomers,
Last year I think it was the biggest baby boom ever, more so than even during the height of the boomers baby boom. There will be some serious move up demand in about 5 or so years is my guess.

Also I would not count on the boomers downsizing in any numbers for at least another 5 to 10 years so we will need to see what the market looks like at that time is my guess.

Maybe move up and first home meets boomer downsize, that would be my guess as well,

You will just have to take my word for it but the Chinese, Those with the spare change are definitely are looking to buy in coastal Socal (inland not so much), I think you will always have extra demand in Coastal Socal than most of the rest of the country (sorry that is just the price of paradise ).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=CA renter]Those echo Boomers already live somewhere. The bubble was unprecedented in the number of young/unqualified people who were able to buy, even in their early 20s! Others are renting.

I’m not thinking about the Boomers downsizing as much as I notice that the very desirable communities are filled with people in their 70s and 80s. Yes, some of their heirs will move in when they pass away, but many of their kids already live locally…freeing up another house.

The stock market decline took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Boomers. They were not prepared for the losses they took, and many will have to resort to “Plan B” (selling the house and cashing out their equity).

Most of them were NEVER expecting to sell their homes for prices that were reached during the bubble. Most of them are sitting on plenty of equity, and there is no reason for them to “hold on” to something when they are still making a nice profit. I think some bulls are being unrealistic in their assumptions about Boomers caring about peak prices. Most of the Boomers I know never thought those prices would ever be reached in the first place. IMHO, very few will “hold on” for peak prices when they can still sell for a nice profit and cash out plenty of equity and move to a senior community or mobile home park or live with their kids.
[/quote]

While there is some truth to the above, what about the echo of the echo boomers,
Last year I think it was the biggest baby boom ever, more so than even during the height of the boomers baby boom. There will be some serious move up demand in about 5 or so years is my guess.

Also I would not count on the boomers downsizing in any numbers for at least another 5 to 10 years so we will need to see what the market looks like at that time is my guess.

Maybe move up and first home meets boomer downsize, that would be my guess as well,

You will just have to take my word for it but the Chinese, Those with the spare change are definitely are looking to buy in coastal Socal (inland not so much), I think you will always have extra demand in Coastal Socal than most of the rest of the country (sorry that is just the price of paradise ).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=CA renter]Those echo Boomers already live somewhere. The bubble was unprecedented in the number of young/unqualified people who were able to buy, even in their early 20s! Others are renting.

I’m not thinking about the Boomers downsizing as much as I notice that the very desirable communities are filled with people in their 70s and 80s. Yes, some of their heirs will move in when they pass away, but many of their kids already live locally…freeing up another house.

The stock market decline took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Boomers. They were not prepared for the losses they took, and many will have to resort to “Plan B” (selling the house and cashing out their equity).

Most of them were NEVER expecting to sell their homes for prices that were reached during the bubble. Most of them are sitting on plenty of equity, and there is no reason for them to “hold on” to something when they are still making a nice profit. I think some bulls are being unrealistic in their assumptions about Boomers caring about peak prices. Most of the Boomers I know never thought those prices would ever be reached in the first place. IMHO, very few will “hold on” for peak prices when they can still sell for a nice profit and cash out plenty of equity and move to a senior community or mobile home park or live with their kids.
[/quote]

While there is some truth to the above, what about the echo of the echo boomers,
Last year I think it was the biggest baby boom ever, more so than even during the height of the boomers baby boom. There will be some serious move up demand in about 5 or so years is my guess.

Also I would not count on the boomers downsizing in any numbers for at least another 5 to 10 years so we will need to see what the market looks like at that time is my guess.

Maybe move up and first home meets boomer downsize, that would be my guess as well,

You will just have to take my word for it but the Chinese, Those with the spare change are definitely are looking to buy in coastal Socal (inland not so much), I think you will always have extra demand in Coastal Socal than most of the rest of the country (sorry that is just the price of paradise ).

[briansd1]

[quote=temeculaguy]Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.[/quote]

This true.. That’s why I still have a house with low tax basis for retirement purposes….

But the reverse is true if you bought at, or near, the peak. While one might be able to get a downward reassessment, temporarily, one will be reset at the higher tax basis when the market recovers, plus 2% compounded annually from the time of purchase.

That’s why I believe that peak purchase houses will nearly all get “recycled” for mortgage debt and tax reasons.

[briansd1]

[quote=temeculaguy]Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.[/quote]

This true.. That’s why I still have a house with low tax basis for retirement purposes….

But the reverse is true if you bought at, or near, the peak. While one might be able to get a downward reassessment, temporarily, one will be reset at the higher tax basis when the market recovers, plus 2% compounded annually from the time of purchase.

That’s why I believe that peak purchase houses will nearly all get “recycled” for mortgage debt and tax reasons.

[briansd1]

[quote=temeculaguy]Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.[/quote]

This true.. That’s why I still have a house with low tax basis for retirement purposes….

But the reverse is true if you bought at, or near, the peak. While one might be able to get a downward reassessment, temporarily, one will be reset at the higher tax basis when the market recovers, plus 2% compounded annually from the time of purchase.

That’s why I believe that peak purchase houses will nearly all get “recycled” for mortgage debt and tax reasons.

[briansd1]

[quote=temeculaguy]Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.[/quote]

This true.. That’s why I still have a house with low tax basis for retirement purposes….

But the reverse is true if you bought at, or near, the peak. While one might be able to get a downward reassessment, temporarily, one will be reset at the higher tax basis when the market recovers, plus 2% compounded annually from the time of purchase.

That’s why I believe that peak purchase houses will nearly all get “recycled” for mortgage debt and tax reasons.

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